ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is dead!!! At least it would appear so...

[jinftl]

Dewpoints still in the 70s down where i am so not feeling fall-like quite yet...but yes, development that climatologically can take place in the SW Caribbean in the coming weeks is still very much a reminder that Florida is not in the clear for the season at all.

93L rained itself out!!! (ok maybe not technically true, but the visual is clear)

The Florida posters can attest to the cool dry air here.

93L stayed over Hispaniola too long.

SW Caribbean in a few weeks when the humidity rebounds.

[HURAKAN]

It is dead!!! At least it would appear so...

Not really. Convection is increasing and there is still a circulation present well north of the Hispaniola.

[jlauderdal]

The Florida posters can attest to the cool dry air here.

93L stayed over Hispaniola too long.

SW Caribbean in a few weeks when the humidity rebounds.

Huh

83 degrees with a dew point of 72 and showers moving through every few hours off the atl.

[Sanibel]

[HURAKAN]

[MGC]

Not competely dead yet but not looking very healthy. Just goes to show what sear and land interaction can do to a potential tropical system....MGC

[HURAKAN]

93L message is that it's down but not out. At least for the moment!

[CrazyC83]

93L message is that it's down but not out. At least for the moment!

If the center can emerge (or reform) offshore, then it could develop. Also looks can be deceiving, a LLC could form even from a sick-looking storm.

[Weatherfreak000]

Circulation is indeed present I believe offshore finally...seems to be pushing North by a good bit...not entirely sure how interaction would occur with 94L....assuming future STS Kyle would just gobble this thing up?

If that convection pushes back over the center during the center DMAX I suppose it's possible it could be Kyle/Lorenzo? Then perhaps we may see an interesting interaction between the systems. Either way 93L only has about another day before it runs right into 30kts of wind shear...if it didn't develop by then it never will.

[HURAKAN]

Bones, sit, the battle is not over.

[cycloneye]

Early this morning,Bones was almost going to declare it,but now he has to sit back.

[gatorcane]

so where is 93L heading now that it has taken forever to finally get moving...looks like a slow ENE drift....

Is it definitely heading out to sea still?

[smw1981]

so where is 93L heading now that it has taken forever to finally get moving...looks like a slow ENE drift....

Is it definitely heading out to sea still?

I'm not sure it is a definite he is heading out to sea, but it does look like he is heading that way...(ENE I mean)...

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 241759
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE LOW IS
PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE WELL TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
WARNINGS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1006 MB LOW
NEAR 19N71W...OR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION LINGERS NORTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO...OR FROM 16N-22N
BETWEEN 66W-70W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HISPANIOLA
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

It looks to be becoming better organized. The key word is "looks"!!

[HURAKAN]

097
AGXX40 KNHC 241807
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
211 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
HURCN FORCE STORM CENTER LOCATED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
32N75.5W IS THE KEY PLAYER IN THE FCST WITH 1100 UTC HI RES
QSCAT PASS INDICATING N TO NE WINDS OF 30-35 KT OVER THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE ZONE N OF 30N. BUOYS 41010 AND 41012 REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25+ KT ATTM BUT ARE NOT IN THE AREA OF
HIGHEST WINDS NOTED IN THE QSCAT PASS. SAME BUOYS REPORTED SEAS
OF 12-14 FT. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE LOW
WWD THROUGH 12Z THU THEN TURN THE SYS NWWD AND INLAND OVER THE
UPPER SC COAST BY 06Z-12Z FRI. THREAT OF 30-40 KT GALES FOR THE
FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA (N OF 30N) EXISTS AS THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WWD ALONG 31N...HOWEVER ONCE THE SYS TURNS MORE NWWD
WINDS SUBSIDE AND TURN MORE TO THE NW.

THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE WHICH HAS BECOME LESS SIGNIFICANT WITH
TIME IS THE NOW DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESS EMERGING OFF
HISPANIOLA AND CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SE BAHAMAS.
THUS FAR THE ECMWF/UKMET MODELS HAVE PERFORMED THE BEST AS FAR
AS KEEPING THE SYSTEM WEAK AND ATTACHING MORE SIGNIFICANCE TO
THE STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST. NOW THE GFS HAS COME INTO
AGREEMENT AS WELL IN KEEPING THIS SYSTEM WEAK AS WELL. THE LESS
RELIABLE CMC/NOGAPS/NAM STILL DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE SYSTEM NWD ALONG
71W TO 31N BY FRI. WILL MAINTAIN A SEPARATE AREA OF WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM FROM THE AREA OF MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NWD MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM
MAINLY OVER AREAS E OF 71W/E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR

BY SAT RIDGE BUILDS WWD ALONG 27N IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOWS WITH SWLY WINDS SUBSIDING OVER THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE
AREA. RIDGE MOVES NWD TO ALONG 29N SUN AND 31N MON. AS THE RIDGE
MOVES N EXPECT ELY TRADES TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT S OF 23N BY
MON.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
0918 UTC HI RES QSCAT PASS INDICATED E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W. MODERATE E TO SE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. LIGHT E TO SE WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH THU. WINDS BECOME NE TO E BUT REMAIN LIGHT FRI
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT SAT AND SUN OVER N PORTIONS IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS BUILD 6 TO 8 FT AS WELL.
WINDS DROP OFF TO 10-15 KT MON BUT WITH RESIDUAL NE SWELL OVER N
PORTIONS. OVER THE CARIBBEAN SW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
NEAR HISPANIOLA GIVE WAY TO MORE NORMAL TRADE WIND PATTERN LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF MEXICO...
FRESH NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF N OF 25N
IN THE WAKE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLC. THESE
WINDS GRADUALLY FILTERS SWD OVER THE GULF W OF 90W THU AND FRI
AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
GULF SAT THROUGH MON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RESIDUAL NLY WINDS OF
20-25 KT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
GALE WARNING...N OF 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

It looks to be becoming better organized. The key word is "looks"!!

I saw that. Now that it has lost most of its convection and corresponding cirrus canopy, you can see the low level cloud swirl much clearer.

[HURAKAN]

24/1745 UTC 20.8N 70.7W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic Ocean