ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[HurricaneFreak]

This system has not been moving at all that much and this could be just a simple fish storm and not affect anyone.Models keep on moving east.

[Blown Away]

This system has not been moving at all that much and this could be just a simple fish storm and not affect anyone.Models keep on moving east.

Oh boy, you've done it now.

[hurricanetrack]

He is right- it could be. It not moving allows the pattern to change with time. Remember when it was fading west of north (in the models) and coming inland over Delaware or New Jersey? Well, that would have been a few days from now and this thing is still stuck on Hispaniola. The pattern has changed and will continue to change plus we have the no-name storm evolving too off the Carolina coast. Interesting times ahead for the models and the mets- and of course coastal residents of the East Coast. Anyone bored? What a season we are having. And it's only late September....

[cycloneye]

[jaxfladude]

This system has not been moving at all that much and this could be just a simple fish storm and not affect anyone.Models keep on moving east.

Uh, it has already done enough to Puerto Rico and the island of Hispaniola...

[cycloneye]

WONT41 KNHC 232134
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
545 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FLOWN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HISPANIOLA INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED...AND STILL LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

Nothing new.

At the rate this is going,it may never become a Tropical Cyclone.

[marciacubed]

I hope this is not a repeat of Fay with the NHC not finding a LLC but so much rain being produced from the storm. My thoughts an prayers go out to those in DR and PR

[Recurve]

Looks like I called it too soon again. Convection has been pretty impressive (I'm sure Puerto Ricans and Dominicans know that) and last night I was sure it was wrapping up, but still obviously (per NHC) no closed surface low. Hmmmm.

The blob of convection has migrated into a band and spread eastward, and I have no idea what happens next. Going to read up on everyone's take on the pattern developing.

[caribepr]

Well, at least I know I'm not going nuts from what I saw early this afternoon. Reports from other islands (stormcarib.com) agree with me, 93L is coming back.

[cycloneye]

734
ABNT20 KNHC 232358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO GENERATE
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES IN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS AND COULD SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND SINCE THAT TIME...ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/RHOME

[cycloneye]

00:00 UTC Best Track.

AL, 93, 2008092400, , BEST, 0, 184N, 696W, 30, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

SSD Dvorak:

23/2345 UTC 18.1N 69.6W T2.0/2.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html


Pick your center At least they almost coincide in the position.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say the center is trying to relocate off the southern coast of Haiti where the deep convection is (REALLY deep for D-Min).

[AJC3]

FORECASTER SCHAUER

LOL...this ranks right up there with Charlie Sprinkle who used to work at what used to be NCEP...Steve Flood, currently at HPC, and Jack Hales at SPC. I'm sure somewhere in the NWS there's someone with the last name 'Snow', 'Gale', etc.

Chris Landsea is another great name for a met.

Just noticed there was a thread about this a couple years ago.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=87363

[Dean4Storms]

FORECASTER SCHAUER

LOL...this ranks right up there with Charlie Sprinkle who used to work at what used to be NCEP...Steve Flood, currently at HPC, and Jack Hales at SPC. I'm sure somewhere in the NWS there's someone with the last name 'Snow', 'Gale', etc.

Chris Landsea is another great name for a met.

Just noticed there was a thread about this a couple years ago.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=87363

That reminds me and maybe he is still there, but there use to be a George Winterling as Chief Meteorologist at Channel 4 in Jax. FL years ago.

[Dean4Storms]

I think this storm goes further east off the East Coast if it ever decides to leave the island hopping.

[gatorcane]

well the global models seem to have gotten the evolution of a cutoff low over the Carolinas correct. I see the Upper-Level low starting to develop over the Carolinas.

But -- at this point 93L was supposed to be a storm north of Hispaniola moving NNW already being influenced by the trough but as we see 93L is stuck spinning below Hispaniola.

Let's see if the north movement finally begins tonight or if 93L will just meander around the big island. The door is open for the next few days for anything approaching the CONUS to recurve but not sure how long that door will be open.

If 93L is still meandering around tomorrow and not making much north progress it will be time to reassess the future fate of 93L.

actually I see a slight West drift still --- 93L is caught between the low-level easterly flow and the mid-level southerly flow since it has refused to deepen.

[Wx_Warrior]

Gatorcane....I think you are stressing too much.

[HurricaneFreak]

We are just trying to find all the scenarios if this storm lingers to much under Hispanola because it if does then the low could move away soon so that the storm could move more west towards the northeast or east coast at least but we just got to see when this storm will move north over hispanola because it was suppose to today already

[jinftl]

Excerpts from Dr. Jeff Masters's blog this evening:

The track forecast
The models are now in fairly good agreement that a strong coastal storm--which could be extratropical or subtropical--will develop off the coast of North Carolina tonight. This storm will affect coastal North Carolina like a weak tropical storm would, with sustained winds of 40 mph, tide levels up to six feet above normal, and 2-3 inches of rain. As 93L is drawn northwards, the two storms will interact, and 93L will get flung northwards towards New England or the Maritime Provinces of Canada. The U.S. East Coast can expect considerable rain for the four day period beginning on Wednesday, but I am expecting that most of this will be due to the coastal low drawing in large amounts of tropical moisture as it tracks north-northeast up the coast. I currently give 93L a 30% chance of hitting the U.S., 60% chance of hitting Canada, and 10% chance of recurving out to sea. There is a high amount of uncertainty with this forecast.

The intensity forecast
Wind shear remains near 15 knots. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 5-15 knots for the remainder of the week. The GFDL and HWRF models are less aggressive than previous runs in intensifying 93L, and I doubt the storm would hit New England or Canada as anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm. There is a large amount of dry air to the northwest of 93L it will have to contend with, and a good potential it may encounter some high wind shear.

[dixiebreeze]

The Accuweather photos above mention nothing abouth the potential interaction with the coastal low. These two lows will interact somehow.

This gives me an eerie feeling, having just watched The Perfect Storm on TV.