WPAC JANGMI: Tropical Storm - Discussion
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- HURAKAN
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WPAC JANGMI: Tropical Storm - Discussion
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 140.0E,
HAS REMAINED QASISTATIONARY, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTHWEST OF
GUAM, OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD
REGION OF TROUGHING WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 230806Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. THE CIRCULATION IS
CONFIRMED BY A 230643Z QSCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS 10-15 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS
ENCIRCLING THE CENTER. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST AND IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. DUE
TO THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIF-
ICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
HAS REMAINED QASISTATIONARY, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTHWEST OF
GUAM, OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD
REGION OF TROUGHING WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 230806Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. THE CIRCULATION IS
CONFIRMED BY A 230643Z QSCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS 10-15 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS
ENCIRCLING THE CENTER. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST AND IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. DUE
TO THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIF-
ICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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- HURAKAN
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Re: WPAC INVEST 96W: Discussion
WTPN21 PGTW 231930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 139.9E TO 14.9N 133.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 138.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.0N 140.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY
135 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
A 231702Z AMSU IMAGE ALSO INDICATES STRONG, CONVERGENT FLOW
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH TWO DISTINCT CONVECTIVE
BANDS EVIDENT. RECENT QUIKSCAT AND A SHIP REPORT SUPPORT AT
LEAST 20 KNOT SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH STRONGER
ISOLATED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY CONVECTION. OVERALL, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-
LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 17-22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 241930Z.//
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- HURAKAN
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Re: WPAC INVEST 96W: Discussion - TCFA
WTPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231921Z SEP 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 11.6N 138.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 138.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 12.3N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.1N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.1N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.2N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.8N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.7N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.8N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 138.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF YAP ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 19W WAS UPGRADED TO WARNING STATUS BASED
ON RAPID CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 06-12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
IMPROVED (AND BETTER DEFINED) LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE LLCC WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-
LOW POSITIONED FAVORABLY NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND GRADIENT-LEVEL UPPER AIR WINDS SUPPORT
A 30-KNOT TD. AN AMSU CROSS-SECTION ALSO INDICATED A PRONOUNCED
WARM ANOMALY NEAR 200 MB. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 231921Z SEP 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 231930). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z
AND 242100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (HAGUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re:
Dave C wrote:The track takes it just a liitle north of the last ones track They up it to over 100 knots by the end of the five days, I guess that says something for deep warm water in that vicinity.
It's warmer than anything in the Atlantic basin I believe.
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WTPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 11.9N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 137.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.8N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.8N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.1N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.4N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.0N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.3N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.4N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 137.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTH OF
YAP ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 240000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z,
242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (HAGUPIT)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 11.9N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 137.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.8N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.8N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.1N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.4N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.0N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.3N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.4N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 137.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTH OF
YAP ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 240000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z,
242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (HAGUPIT)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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- HURAKAN
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Re: WPAC JTWC: TS 19W - Tropical Depression: Discussion
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 11.9N 137.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
AT 11.9N 137.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
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- P.K.
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Re: WPAC JTWC: TS 19W - Tropical Depression: Discussion
T2.5 from RSMC Tokyo so expect an upgrade to a TS shortly.
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WTPQ20 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0815 JANGMI (0815) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 12.1N 136.4E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 15.3N 134.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 261200UTC 18.2N 131.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 271200UTC 20.1N 127.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
Side note: in 2002, this storm was named "Changmi".
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0815 JANGMI (0815) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 12.1N 136.4E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 15.3N 134.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 261200UTC 18.2N 131.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 271200UTC 20.1N 127.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
Side note: in 2002, this storm was named "Changmi".
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Re: WPAC JANGMI - Tropical Storm: Discussion
The Wpac is certainly showing the Atlantic how it's done at the moment. Where in the Atlantic Invest 93L does not get a LLC for days (yet still has been more than only dangerous) this one ramped it up in only 24 hours or so. And the forecast track so far is just plain NASTY. Hagupit only just landfall and this one's going to be his evil twin if that 5 day outlook is anything to go by.
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