ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Models
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- cycloneye
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ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Models
626
WHXX01 KWBC 190100
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080919 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080919 0000 080919 1200 080920 0000 080920 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 59.8W 13.4N 61.8W 14.5N 63.8W 15.9N 65.9W
BAMD 12.9N 59.8W 13.2N 61.1W 13.8N 62.4W 14.5N 63.7W
BAMM 12.9N 59.8W 13.3N 61.3W 14.1N 62.8W 15.1N 64.5W
LBAR 12.9N 59.8W 13.3N 61.1W 14.1N 62.7W 15.1N 64.5W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080921 0000 080922 0000 080923 0000 080924 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 67.9W 19.8N 72.1W 21.1N 75.9W 21.7N 79.2W
BAMD 15.5N 65.2W 17.5N 68.1W 18.7N 70.2W 19.0N 71.5W
BAMM 16.5N 66.2W 18.8N 69.4W 20.0N 72.2W 20.4N 74.7W
LBAR 16.4N 66.1W 18.9N 68.3W 19.1N 69.3W 18.3N 68.9W
SHIP 54KTS 66KTS 71KTS 73KTS
DSHP 54KTS 51KTS 41KTS 38KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 59.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 58.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 57.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 190100
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0100 UTC FRI SEP 19 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080919 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080919 0000 080919 1200 080920 0000 080920 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 59.8W 13.4N 61.8W 14.5N 63.8W 15.9N 65.9W
BAMD 12.9N 59.8W 13.2N 61.1W 13.8N 62.4W 14.5N 63.7W
BAMM 12.9N 59.8W 13.3N 61.3W 14.1N 62.8W 15.1N 64.5W
LBAR 12.9N 59.8W 13.3N 61.1W 14.1N 62.7W 15.1N 64.5W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080921 0000 080922 0000 080923 0000 080924 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 67.9W 19.8N 72.1W 21.1N 75.9W 21.7N 79.2W
BAMD 15.5N 65.2W 17.5N 68.1W 18.7N 70.2W 19.0N 71.5W
BAMM 16.5N 66.2W 18.8N 69.4W 20.0N 72.2W 20.4N 74.7W
LBAR 16.4N 66.1W 18.9N 68.3W 19.1N 69.3W 18.3N 68.9W
SHIP 54KTS 66KTS 71KTS 73KTS
DSHP 54KTS 51KTS 41KTS 38KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 59.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 58.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 57.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- terrapintransit
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models Discussion
What a surprise to see models moving a system over Hispanola.
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- stormchazer
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Ahhh...but look at the model support....or lack of support frankly because if the LBAR were the models we were looking at...I think it's safe to say even the armchair wishcasters could be better.
Saying that...with no good model support it's hard to defend 93L's development...I suppose we'll see what happens.
Saying that...with no good model support it's hard to defend 93L's development...I suppose we'll see what happens.
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- cycloneye
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Re:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:Ahhh...but look at the model support....or lack of support frankly because if the LBAR were the models we were looking at...I think it's safe to say even the armchair wishcasters could be better.
Saying that...with no good model support it's hard to defend 93L's development...I suppose we'll see what happens.
When GFDL and HWRF come with their first runs (Around 1:30 AM EDT) ,lets see how they have 93L in terms of intensity.
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Re: Re:
cycloneye wrote:Lets see when GFDL and HWRF come with their first runs (Around 1:30 AM EDT) ,lets see how they have 93L in terms of intensity.
The performance of the GFDL/HWRF generally ranges from mediocre to horrendous, so I wouldn't consider these ones as "reliable" in all synoptic/thermodynamic cases.
We don't even have a defined LLC, so any model "initializations" should be taken with a prodigious grain of salt.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models Discussion
cycloneye wrote:GFDL was one of the best performers on Ike.
That's a legitimate point, but we had a mature TC, and the operational GFS handled the synoptic pattern adeptly at times. The Euro performed MUCH better in regards to Ike's track, and it was more consistent as well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models Discussion
MiamiensisWx wrote:cycloneye wrote:GFDL was one of the best performers on Ike.
That's a legitimate point, but we had a mature TC, and the operational GFS handled the synoptic pattern adeptly at times. The Euro performed MUCH better in regards to Ike's track, and it was more consistent as well.
I agree....the Euro latched on to Ike and never waivered. It was the trend setter for all the reliable models thereafter....
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Models Discussion
Wait until there's a better center flare for initial on models.
Crazy year for d-mins.
Crazy year for d-mins.
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Models Discussion
This one have a good chance of becoming something more?
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- Fego
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Models Discussion
Well Puerto Rico is in the bulls eye according to this first run (HWRF & GFDL). Obviously this may change later on.
HWRF
http://img171.imageshack.us/my.php?image=93lhwrfix0.png
GFDL
http://img171.imageshack.us/my.php?image=93lgfdlwx3.png
HWRF
http://img171.imageshack.us/my.php?image=93lhwrfix0.png
GFDL
http://img171.imageshack.us/my.php?image=93lgfdlwx3.png
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-
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Wow, can't believe GFDL and HWRF both develop this into a significant system.
CMC is also seeing something.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
CMC is also seeing something.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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- Blown Away
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Re:
O Town wrote:Wow, can't believe GFDL and HWRF both develop this into a significant system.
CMC is also seeing something.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
When I see the GFDL developing and not dissipating an invest that usually gives it better odds of developing.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Models Discussion
WHXX01 KWBC 191211
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1211 UTC FRI SEP 19 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080919 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080919 1200 080920 0000 080920 1200 080921 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 63.5W 13.7N 65.6W 14.7N 67.7W 15.9N 69.6W
BAMD 13.3N 63.5W 13.6N 64.7W 14.1N 66.0W 14.9N 67.5W
BAMM 13.3N 63.5W 13.5N 65.0W 14.2N 66.8W 15.1N 68.7W
LBAR 13.3N 63.5W 13.9N 65.1W 15.0N 67.1W 16.4N 69.1W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 33KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080921 1200 080922 1200 080923 1200 080924 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 71.9W 18.9N 76.1W 19.9N 80.3W 20.3N 83.2W
BAMD 15.7N 69.0W 16.9N 72.0W 17.4N 74.3W 17.5N 76.1W
BAMM 16.1N 70.7W 17.6N 74.4W 18.2N 77.8W 18.6N 80.2W
LBAR 17.6N 70.9W 19.4N 73.4W 19.1N 75.2W 18.1N 76.3W
SHIP 41KTS 53KTS 61KTS 64KTS
DSHP 41KTS 53KTS 46KTS 52KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 63.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 61.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 59.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1211 UTC FRI SEP 19 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080919 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080919 1200 080920 0000 080920 1200 080921 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 63.5W 13.7N 65.6W 14.7N 67.7W 15.9N 69.6W
BAMD 13.3N 63.5W 13.6N 64.7W 14.1N 66.0W 14.9N 67.5W
BAMM 13.3N 63.5W 13.5N 65.0W 14.2N 66.8W 15.1N 68.7W
LBAR 13.3N 63.5W 13.9N 65.1W 15.0N 67.1W 16.4N 69.1W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 33KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080921 1200 080922 1200 080923 1200 080924 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 71.9W 18.9N 76.1W 19.9N 80.3W 20.3N 83.2W
BAMD 15.7N 69.0W 16.9N 72.0W 17.4N 74.3W 17.5N 76.1W
BAMM 16.1N 70.7W 17.6N 74.4W 18.2N 77.8W 18.6N 80.2W
LBAR 17.6N 70.9W 19.4N 73.4W 19.1N 75.2W 18.1N 76.3W
SHIP 41KTS 53KTS 61KTS 64KTS
DSHP 41KTS 53KTS 46KTS 52KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 63.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 61.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 59.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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