Atlantic Basin is quiet / Inside Africa is not

[cycloneye]

As the Atlantic basin in general is relativly quiet,if you look inside the African continent,you can see a good deal of activity.The big question is,once those disturbances emerge West Africa,what enviromental conditions they will encounter.At least one model GFS shows activity picking up after the 20th of September.Lets see what happens as these impulses exit Africa and see if something starts to organize or nothing will occur.

Sat Dundee

Free registration to see African images.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/registerql.html

[HURAKAN]

The train is ready again.

[Cyclone1]

Wow that's actually pretty impressive.

[cycloneye]

Here is a glimpse of part of the activity inside that continent.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

This is my first post. I wish to say "hello and thank you" to everyone who enables this wonderful site. I am a female physician who is fascinated by ocean weather.

I will read more in your archives on why waves originate off of West Africa, and why the clouds/winds inside (above) Africa are so vital to initiation of eastern Atlantic tropical waves.

I just wish to de-lurk during the calm after the recent storms (Ike, Gustov) on your remarkable Storm2k and say hello and thanks for all you offer.

WLD

[O Town]

Wow that full disk shot HURAKAN posted is impressive. They are all lined up like ducks waiting to jump into a pond. Lets hope they all go poof!!!!!!

Heres another pic.

[funster]

I see four good future waves there - may they all poof into nothing.

[Jinkers]

Wow, I hope conditions are not favorable--I need a break..

[SouthFloridawx]

Not too much dust either.

[captain east]

I guess these are guys are the hot new batch since the Atlantic is currently quiet in MID-September.

[catastrophic]

they defanintly should be watched and the two up front look real good and from this loop it looks like thay are both showing some rotation.

[Blown Away]

It will be October before any of those waves could reach the CONUS, so the chances of the EC Conus being impacted from the E are very low at this point. Seems if the CONUS is going to be impacted it will be from some home grown system or from the Caribbean.

[Patrick99]

Yet, it has happened before. I'm not ready to say any one of these waves couldn't affect the US.

Plus, as it's still September, there's a decent chance of some homegrown stuff popping up somewhere.

[O Town]

they defanintly should be watched and the two up front look real good and from this loop it looks like thay are both showing some rotation.

Awesome link there catastrophic, thx.
That 1st one should hit the water sometime in the next day or 2, lets see if they will be poofers.

[meteorologyman]

wind shear is light if it all waves moves due West as of now,shear may weaken or strengthen in time

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7shr.html

Atlantic Sea Surface: plenty warm
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/septno ... =news_maps

Water Vapor: There seems to be dry air near Africa by Cayman Islands but the dry air is diminishing slowly
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

As of now
Wind Shear: somewhat favorable (for now)
Sea Surface Temp: very favorable (for now)
Water Vapor: Not favorable (for now)
If a wave was in the Atlantic water NOW I would give it a 30% chance of developement, but everything can change in 24 to 48 hours for good or bad

[Typhoon_Willie]

Welcome aboard Weatherlovingdoc. You will find this place to be very informative.

[Gustywind]

wind shear is light if it all waves moves due West as of now,shear may weaken or strengthen in time

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7shr.html

Atlantic Sea Surface: plenty warm
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/septno ... =news_maps

Water Vapor: There seems to be dry air near Africa by Cayman Islands but the dry air is diminishing slowly
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

As of now
Wind Shear: somewhat favorable (for now)
Sea Surface Temp: very favorable (for now)
Water Vapor: Not favorable (for now)
If a wave was in the Atlantic water NOW I would give it a 30% chance of developement, but everything can change in 24 to 48 hours for good or bad

And in fact nothing is good and bad, but watch all the waves 100% is maybe a good thing

[gerrit]