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Wow the UKMET is poised for the east coast but is that model performing well this season?
Latest model tracks at 18:00 UTC Look at UKMET where it goes
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cycloneye
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Latest model tracks at 18:00 UTC Look at UKMET where it goes
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rainstorm
Well, I wouldn't say its very "unlikely" being tht no one knows what's most likely at this point. But the huge ridge in the west is building northward as a trough pushed to the SE during the coming days. That used to mean that it would pull systems northward. However the key may be the suppressed ridge axis that's down in south Florida. That will stay there through mid week, but is forecast to move north near north-central Florida by week's end. Question is, where will the ridge axis be later this week? First thing's first; will we have a TS or hurricane to even worry about, or will it continue westward in a fairly weak state. If the UKMET scenario is to play out, the TD would have to slow its forward speed by tomorrow night. Some forecasters don't think this will happen, and are saying it will stay south of Cuba. The NHC is a compromise of the solutions taking the middle ground bringing the system across Cuba from SE to NW running the backbone of the island. In that scenario, it would stay weak until emeerging in the GOM. But compromising between solutions isn't the final answer as one will have a better handle on it than the others in the end. I want to see this thing develop first before making any guesses. Cheers!!
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