Dan Rather Rips NHC's Claudette Forecast

[WidreMann]

The NHC was forecast or minimal or weak catergory one of 75 to 80mph. There's a big difference between that and a cane with winds between 90-100mph. The damage that was caused was more consistent of a Cat 2 than Cat 1.

Not really. There were a few reports of strong cat. 1 winds. Poor construction and poor wind-reporting are more likely than it being a cat 2. NHC said the storm was probably 80-85 knots anyways (upwards of 90 mph), so the difference is still small even if it really was a cat2.

[WidreMann]

I think they should have upgraded it at ten as well. But they did have the hurricane warnings out, which is what people should have been paying attention to anyways.

[Derek Ortt]

The data at the time suggested a tropical storm. 80 percent of the 850mb winds of 75KT yields roughly 60KT. However, it is clear after the fact that ths typical relationship didnt apply

[Steve Cosby]

Wasn't that the same Vortex message that had 75 knot surface winds noted as well?

[Derek Ortt]

that was an estimate, not dropsonde value

[Stormsfury]

In all fairness to the NHC, intensity forecasts admittedly are the toughest thing to forecast, sudden and rapid intensifications do occur, and Claudette reached those just before landfall ... but IMO, everyone here knew Claudette had serious potential as she gathered herself very quickly and way before I alluded to the fact how tenacious she was almost a week before she even threatened the Texas coast ...

There are a lot of outstanding points both pro and con brought forth to the table ...

SF

[Rainband]

Bottom line..When it comes to a Hurricane or Tropical storm..prepare for the worst and hope for the best!!

[JetMaxx]

Claudette SHOULD be a very valuable lesson to everyone living along the Gulf and Southeast Atlantic Coasts...this time we were lucky -- a cat 1 suddenly became a borderline cat-2. IMO the hurricane that someday will be the next great hurricane disaster in the U.S. will be a hurricane like Claudette; or more like Opal in 1995. People along the West Coast of Florida (or in the Keys) go to bed with a 80-85 mph cat-1 moving slowly toward them....then it both explosively deepens AND accelerates toward land during the night.

Folks who went to bed with a cat-1 hurricane awaken in panic to news it's now a cat-4 and moving at them at 20-25 mph...and they've taken it too lightly and it's too late for everyone to evacuate as winds and tides increase. We were extremely fortunate with Opal...1) it weakened before landfall; 2) it struck a "relatively" unpopulated coastal area (Fort Walton Beach to Pensacola Beach), and 3) it happened in early October...after the Florida Panhandle tourist season ended.

Let an Opal-type bomb slam into Tampa/ St Pete southward to Sarasota and I'll go on record stating the death toll will be well into the hundreds (probably thousands). Wind isn't what kills in a major hurricane (why Andrew's death toll was so low)...it's instead from tidal flooding and storm surge. Those barrier islands from Clearwater Beach southward to Marco Island are packed with homes and condos....there is no way you can evacuate everyone off those islands in 12 hours....and they all go under water in a 115 mph cat-3....a 135 mph cat-4 (940 mb) means a storm surge of 15-18' feet.

Instead of blasting the National Hurricane Center as incompetent, we need to be doing everything we can to educate coastal residents in areas where we live....to the fact that hurricanes are unpredictable, and can sometimes explode into monsters as they approach the coast with little or no advance warning.

In 1935 a 60-65 mph tropical storm over the Bahamas became a 190 mph cat-5 hurricane IN LESS than 36 hours. It killed over 500 people in the Florida Keys (it looked like the aftermath of a F4 tornado...gusts reached 220 mph or more). When I hear stories that 35-40% percent failed to evacuate the Florida Keys during the approach of hurricane Georges, it tells me what happened in 1935 can happen again today -- regardless of the technology we now posess.

[Stormsfury]

Again, good post, Perry ...

Another danger ... and in fact, in recent years ... inland flooding has been the number #1 killer now in hurricanes ... despite the criticism from Dan Blather regarding Claudette ... the fact shows that despite the nonchalant attitudes of some, the fact is the NHC has done an effective job along with local agencies show that less and less people are being killed by storm surge and winds ...

Most of the deaths in Hurricane Floyd ... inland flooding ...
Most of the deaths in Tropical Storm Allison ... inland flooding ...
Also to add ... Hurricane Agnes, and let's not forget 1998 ... Hurricane Mitch ...

[Orlando_wx]

Hey Perry your right on the beam with this i live in central florida in orlando and people here not really bother by any storm really because it's been so long since we've had one up here the more I talk to people they think that we are to far inland for any thing to happen which is not true from the east coast or the west coast and the worse part about it is that the roads here suck not enough roads for the people to evacuate from either coast.

John

[ColdFront77]

Hello OrlandoDad, I see you made your first post here. Welcome to the Storm2K.

I agree, I have lived in central Florida since June 2000 and still haven't experienced a strong tropical storm or hurricane yet. I am about 1 hour, 15 minutes northwest of Orlando... so technically the storms that hit the western portion of the state are generally worse than those that make landfall along the eastern coast.

[JetMaxx]

In 1960, hurricane Donna brought 90-100 mph wind gusts as close to Orlando as Clermont, Winter Haven, and Lakeland....including the western and northwestern suburbs of Orlando (also the Deland area caught 90-100 mph gusts); and Donna had been over land for over 12 hours (recurved from Fort Myers to Lakeland to Marineland).

The great San Felipe hurricane of September 1928 was about the size of Floyd....a large 145-150 mph cat-4 that took over 2000 lives in the Lake Okeechobee and Palm Beach areas. As this monster hurricane recurved over Florida, it passed near present day Disney World, still estimated to be a 115-120 mph hurricane. It's likely wind gusts across much of Central Florida reached 120-125 mph or more...the equivalent of a 40 mile wide F2 tornado.

The problem is twofold....one, Florida is flat, so there's less friction to disrupt a hurricane's core; and a large intense hurricane will have feeder bands out over the warm Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean...even though the eye might be inland by 40 miles or more, it will remain strong, and very dangerous (Donna's central pressure only rose from 950 mb to 971 mb during her passage over Florida...and Donna WAS NOT a particularly large hurricane in size).

[ColdFront77]

Thank you for the information, Perry. I was pretty sure central Florida has gotten hit rather hard 45 to 50 miles east of the Gulf of Mexico and 50 to 60 miles west of the Atlantic, about my distances from the two bodies of water. I also was pretty sure that storms, especially ones that don't have a chance to weaken much crossing the relatively flat and rather narrow peninsula can pack a punch.

The tropical cyclones at Florida's latitiude more slower than they do up in the New England area, that's for sure. The longer a hurricane stays in the water waters off the Florida coasts the more problems Floridian's; especially those along the coastlines will face.

The highest point in Florida is in Walton county, south of the Alabama border; but yes indeed, the central portion of the state (around my area) is second in the state, however only a few feet over one hundred feet above sea level.

[JetMaxx]

Someone emailed me this morning wondering why there have been no hurricane force winds in central Florida in the 22 years they've lived there (since 1981).

The reason is simple: Since hurricane Donna in September 1960, the only two major hurricanes to strike any portion of the Florida Peninsula have been Betsy (1965) and Andrew (1992). Both Betsy and Andrew tracked west to east across the southern tip of Florida -- too far south to affect Central Florida to a great extent.

This unusual lack of major landfalling hurricanes is why Central Florida hasn't experienced hurricane conditions since 1960. If large and intense hurricane Floyd had impacted the East Coast of Florida in 1999....Orlando would likely have experienced hurricane force winds...possibly 100 mph or more in gusts.

PW

[tomboudreau]

I know we are talking about Florida and the gulf coast...but in 1955, New England was slammed by 2 hurricanes within 3 weeks I believe. They had serious inland flooding as well from those two storms. The town I was raised in suffered incredible flooding because of the 2 hurricanes. I belives those 2 storms to hit where Connie and Diane. I dont remember, from hearing from my parents if either storm did in effect make landfall of just cross south of New England...but I know the area never recovered from the flooding. I just hope that we dont see another situation like that nor a situation like Mitch or Floyd or Allison.