ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[PTPatrick]

PS....I just CANT see this thing sitting for that long. I cant not wait another week on Ikey to landfall...Gee Whiz.

[MGC]

To the left...to the right....We'll know much better when Ike moves off Cuba. I'm hedging on a central La landfall, close to where Gustav landed.....MGC

Of course the above opinion is that of MGC and not a official forecast.

[TTheriot1975]

Talk about a jump in models...wow!!

[cycloneye]

Landfall over Ivanhater area.

[TTheriot1975]

So instead of a Sat landfall..its going to be an extra couple days more?

[Bolebuns]

Talk about a jump in models...wow!!

which ones?

[TTheriot1975]

Sorry...just one...from SWLA at 18z to Pensacola Fl at 00Z...and now not until next Mon

[TTheriot1975]

The GFS

[Stormcenter]

Hopefully this situation would pan out for a sheared lopsided NE moving system.

This is what it is looking like per this model run. IMO

[Brent]

Landfall over Ivanhater area.

A week from now!

[Ivanhater]

[quote="cycloneye"]Landfall over Ivanhater area.

Best place to be a week out Luis

[Wx_Warrior]

FYI: Not the same Rita type setup.

This is very very tricky guys, yall know that....If the trough picks up Ike, when does it do it and then where does he take him.

Do some of you really think that every model is going to point in the same direction this far out?

[Stormcenter]

Sorry...just one...from SWLA at 18z to Pensacola Fl at 00Z...and now not until next Mon

The timing thing as I just posted in this thread is what bothers me about this run.

[cycloneye]

Landfall over Ivanhater area.

Best place be a week out Luis

Sure is.But anyway my friend,you have to watch very closely how the upper pattern will shape up in the next few days to see if in reality you will be visited by Ike or not.

[deltadog03]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... m=&dd=&hh=

If not mistaken that is IVAN's synoptic set up....Look familiar?

Well, we all know what happened next...It moved north basically....Tonights 00z gfs is nearly identical to the same pattern...

http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/5817 ... 013qj0.gif

[TTheriot1975]

Now I could be wrong..but didnt Gustav speed up to try to make it around the High? It went faster..not slower...it was booking it at like 15-17 mph..making landfall about almost a day early. Why would this storm be any different? Does the high stay in place over too much of the gulf?

[Wx_Warrior]

Yes, a week out but Ike will be in the gulf very very soon. 'Hater...We've been in the cone for days now! That's just one GFS model. You should know better than that. If that cone comes your way, then you got problems. Until then, you are good to go.

[Ivanhater]

Landfall over Ivanhater area.

Best place be a week out Luis

Sure is.But anyway my friend,you have to watch very closely how the upper pattern will shape up in the next few days to see if in reality you will be visited by Ike or not.

Of course, busy week at s2k im sure

[wxmann_91]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_reanal-u.cgi?re=namer&le=500&va=hght&in=20&pl=cf&yy=2004&mm=09&dd=15&hh=00&overlay=no&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&yy=&mm=&dd=&hh=

If not mistaken that is IVAN's synoptic set up....Look familiar?

Well, we all know what happened next...It moved north basically....Tonights 00z gfs is nearly identical to the same pattern...

http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/5817 ... 013qj0.gif

Quite different.

Ivan's trough was deep and amplified, and its weakness was in the right position to steer it where it went.

Ike's situation is different. Ike's trough separates into two parts, one which cuts off in my area and then one which ejects out to the east. The trough that ejects out is not that amplified and very progressive (despite the amplitude of Ivan's trough, the progressiveness of it still didn't have enough strength to completely recurve it into Canada, so its remnants curved back). Furthermore, the weakness is short-lived and there are higher heights just to the west of Ike once the weakness closes off to steer it back west.

The 0Z GFS IMO is bunk.

[Jason_B]

Yes, a week out but Ike will be in the gulf very very soon. 'Hater...We've been in the cone for days now! That's just one GFS model. You should know better than that. If that cone comes your way, then you got problems. Until then, you are good to go.

Agree. Strong consensus has been and still is Texas.