ATL IKE: Models Discussion

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tpr1967
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1921 Postby tpr1967 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:27 pm

Again the EURO leads the way.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1922 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:28 pm

Bad run from the GFS, I suspect. 6Z is the run to watch.
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Weatherfreak000

#1923 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:29 pm

Texas indeed!
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fasterdisaster
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#1924 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:29 pm

Does anyone have a good link for an updating spaghetti model map?
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1925 Postby Innotech » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:30 pm

Texas can have this storm. I think they are way better prepared to endure a beast like that. We already had ours.
Thats enough for a season.
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ROCK
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1926 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:30 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Bad run from the GFS, I suspect. 6Z is the run to watch.



oh brother... :wink: and the 4 EURO runs before this GFS was bad also? besides the 0z and 12z are the ones to watch... :D
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vaffie
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Re:

#1927 Postby vaffie » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:30 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Texas indeed!


:eek: Off to bed...
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1928 Postby AZRainman » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:31 pm

Image
Last edited by AZRainman on Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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AL Chili Pepper
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1929 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:31 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Bad run from the GFS, I suspect. 6Z is the run to watch.


which one's supposed to have the gulfstream data. I haven't been keeping up.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1930 Postby tpr1967 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:32 pm

GFS not as deep with 500mb trough coming out of the pacific nw this run.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1931 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:34 pm

Landfall in Central Texas.

Image
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ROCK
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1932 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:36 pm

nasty run....central TX is not highly populated but still.....
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#1933 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:37 pm

This latest GFS run sends Ike slamming into Texas, keeping
it in the south central gulf prior to that time.

Texas got Dolly cat.2, Eduoard TS. So it has been quite active there
this year. Anyway, the latest GFS is ominous for Texas. I was suspecting
this further and further west shift in the models that has now taken place. The earlier models in 5 day forecasts often overestimate troughs
and underestimate ridges, at least when you are dealing with a Gulf
storm, but they're exceptions to this rule.
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Stormcenter
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1934 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:38 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Bad run from the GFS, I suspect. 6Z is the run to watch.



I know how you feel Ed but unfortunately the models have been trending to the west.
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Duddy
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1935 Postby Duddy » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:40 pm

ROCK wrote:nasty run....central TX is not highly populated but still.....


They eye would be right over my town in that frame.

Man oh man, I'm not liking this new trend at all.

We have been lucky alot her to not have a major landfall in decades, I guess it might be our time. Glad I got renters insurance while Gustav was over Cuba. My apartment is packed with high tech gear.
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Stormcenter
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1936 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:40 pm

tpr1967 wrote:GFS not as deep with 500mb trough coming out of the pacific nw this run.



I believe the trough will be stronger and move quicker.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Wx_Warrior
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1937 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:40 pm

Looks like a corpus strike there....Can't tell...Watched too many footballs flying today..Maybe the EURO is on to something Rocky.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1938 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:Landfall in Central Texas.

Image


I'm having visions of a second Carla experience in a lifetime. :double: Goodnight. Tomorrow Tampico
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Shoshana
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1939 Postby Shoshana » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:41 pm

Technically, Central Texas does have quite a number of inhabitants.

What y'all are discussing though is the Central Texas Coast ... not central Texas, where Austin is.

When Hurricane Rita was forecast to hit the Central Texas Coast, 1.1 million people were ordered to evacuate in Texas.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1940 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:42 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Bad run from the GFS, I suspect. 6Z is the run to watch.



I know how you feel Ed but unfortunately the models have been trending to the west.


Yes Ed, I hate to be the bear of bad news, but there has been a pronounced west
trend in the model runs, and considering the synoptics of that bridging ridge,
GFS may be onto a more synoptically reasonable path- bad news for Texas.
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