Model grafic tracks at 1200 UTC for invest 97L

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 8:02 am

http://www.wright-weather.com/data/wxp/ ... invest.gif

Wow looks like where I am here in Puerto Rico will be close to it and if it goes more north maybe over Pr so I and all who are members here from Puerto Rico be aware of the progress of this developing system and for the US it is too early to say for sure what will happen many days head.

JetMaxx · #2 Postby **JetMaxx** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 9:32 am

If Invest97 can avoid the shear, it could be a player to be reckoned with in a few days -- that projected track reminds me a lot of Gilbert and Allen -- there's a lot of very warm ocean water ahead..

Toni - 574 · #3 Postby **Toni - 574** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 10:09 am

Thanks Luis for all of your great updates! Looks like all of you in PR need to keep an watchful eye.

Ola · #4 Postby **Ola** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 10:12 am

Hmmm, very , very interesting. For us here in PR, IF it decides to crank up and develop, I think it will depend on how strong or how weak it will be in order to determine the track. The surface high to its north is forecasted to stay strong, with weakness west of 70 west only. If the wave stays weak, it should pass south of PR and maybe do a Claudette repeat. But if it develops in the next 48 hours, then we gotta watch out in the northen caribbean, or maybe it would go north of here. Too early to tell but defenetly we need to watch this.

Ola · #5 Postby **Ola** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 10:14 am

CHeck it out
http://www.net-waves.net/weather/td97.php

Ola · #6 Postby **Ola** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 10:17 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191508
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL
WAVE...LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND...IF NECESSARY...A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL REACH THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 10:25 am

Agree Ola about the track that it may take depending on the intensity.Let's wait and see in what manner it may affect Puerto Rico.

#8 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 10:25 am

Looking awfully healthy today!! Quickscat does reveal the start of a LLCC near the center of the convection. Could get interesting soon!!! NO CLAUDETTED REDUXES ALLOWED!!!!!

JetMaxx · #9 Postby **JetMaxx** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 1:15 pm

One interesting aspect of Invest97...it's got a lot of convection and apparent organization even though it's currently traversing sub 27°C waters (sst below 80° F) -- at 12 N and 44 W the sea surface temp is only 24-25° (75-77° F).

Once it reached 50 W longitude...and those 80°+ F SST, we may see this thing come together in a hurry....add some warm ocean water to good organization, favorable winds aloft, and convection and it spells trouble...possibly with a capitol "T".

IMO this is a system that definitely warrants keeping an eagle eye on.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 1:27 pm

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/julyno ... large.html

Here is a grafic of the sst's in the atlantic and as Perry well stated after 50w she may explode because of those 80*F+ temps.And shear is not a problem too but the only thing that might slow development is dry air.

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Jul 19, 2003 2:53 pm

As of this morning, Puerto Rico was about 1,515 miles from the center of 97L.

Model grafic tracks at 1200 UTC for invest 97L

Model grafic tracks at 1200 UTC for invest 97L

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