ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Is it me or does it seem like every night the Ike models shift west, then in the morning they shift back to the east, then the cycle repeats again...

its clearly having a net gain of west big time, glad this thing isnt sticking to that 5 day track they had thursday, once again being on the 5 day track works out well

[PTPatrick]

I agree too. They did the nightly shift west with Gustav as well. Not saying it cant happen, but I have a hunch they could swing back east a bit in the morning.

[Stormcenter]

Is it me or does it seem like every night the Ike models shift west, then in the morning they shift back to the east, then the cycle repeats again...

its clearly having a net gain of west big time, glad this thing isnt sticking to that 5 day track they had thursday, once again being on the 5 day track works out well

I guess that means La. is in the clear with the GFS then.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

18z HWRF says hello to Texas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

What's is the strength of Ike in that last frame? Cat 4?

Its 120kts so yes a cat 4 with a pressure of 914mb I believe.

[boca]

Ike would have to slow down in order to change direction.Is their still a chance of that happening around Florida or did the ridge solidify more.

[Stormcenter]

Ike would have to slow down in order to change direction.Is their still a chance of that happening around Florida or did the ridge solidify more.

I don't believe any tropical system has to slow down to change direction.

[boca]

Can someone please verify if a storm has to slow down or stall to change directions.

[jinftl]

Not sure about the 54 hour point revealing more than a huge cone in the Gulf. I mean, with Cuba maybe 12 hours from landfall...some models show a track over the spine of the island..some show ike only skirting the island.

Consider also that South Florida was at the center of the cone not much more than a day ago....lots can change even in 24 hour, esp with forecasts showing turns and angles that won't take place for a few days. In other words, long long week ahead.

SETexas without a doubt is back in the game with this storm. Models are definitely shifting west.

For sure. What a horrible thought. It would be quite amazing if it actually reached all the way here in the middle of September, but the models are certainly trending here, that's for sure. I think by the 0Z runs on Tuesday morning (from 12 am to 2 am)--in 54 hours from now, the models will converge, and we will have a pretty good idea whether the storm will hit SE LA, C LA, SW LA, SE TX, C TX or S TX. At least that's when I will feel like I know.

[jlauderdal]

Ike would have to slow down in order to change direction.Is their still a chance of that happening around Florida or did the ridge solidify more.

I don't believe any tropical system has to slow down to change direction.

they dont have to but when they do it usually means a change in direction and im not talking 10 degrees

[Brent]

Someone better wake up Ed...LOL

HWRF also appears to take Ike for a swim in the Caribbean Monday.

[Sabanic]

Ike would have to slow down in order to change direction.Is their still a chance of that happening around Florida or did the ridge solidify more.

Hurricanes do not have to slow down to change direction. They are not an animate object. It is a whole different deal when dealing with a weather system.

[fasterdisaster]

Ike would have to slow down in order to change direction.Is their still a chance of that happening around Florida or did the ridge solidify more.

Hurricanes do not have to slow down to change direction. They are not an animate object. It is a whole different deal when dealing with a weather system.

They certainly don't HAVE to like lauderdale said but in this case a slowdown would result in a further east position when the ridge breaks down which would result in closer to Florida.

[Sabanic]

Ike would have to slow down in order to change direction.Is their still a chance of that happening around Florida or did the ridge solidify more.

Hurricanes do not have to slow down to change direction. They are not an animate object. It is a whole different deal when dealing with a weather system.

They certainly don't HAVE to like lauderdale said but in this case a slowdown would result in a further east position when the ridge breaks down which would result in closer to Florida.

It may, but it may not. Lotsa time to watch and see.

[Diva]

18z HWRF says hello to Texas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Why won't this link animate for me? All I see is the current location of Ike.

[Jagno]

Move the bar all the way to right and click fwrd

[Stormcenter]

Not sure about the 54 hour point revealing more than a huge cone in the Gulf. I mean, with Cuba maybe 12 hours from landfall...some models show a track over the spine of the island..some show ike only skirting the island.

Consider also that South Florida was at the center of the cone not much more than a day ago....lots can change even in 24 hour, esp with forecasts showing turns and angles that won't take place for a few days. In other words, long long week ahead.

SETexas without a doubt is back in the game with this storm. Models are definitely shifting west.

For sure. What a horrible thought. It would be quite amazing if it actually reached all the way here in the middle of September, but the models are certainly trending here, that's for sure. I think by the 0Z runs on Tuesday morning (from 12 am to 2 am)--in 54 hours from now, the models will converge, and we will have a pretty good idea whether the storm will hit SE LA, C LA, SW LA, SE TX, C TX or S TX. At least that's when I will feel like I know.

Did you purposely forget to leave off MS.AL. and especially FL.?

[tolakram]

18z HWRF says hello to Texas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Why won't this link animate for me? All I see is the current location of Ike.

Click the +1 button on the right, that's what I do. I prefer the manual animation anyway.

[jinftl]

Storms dont move...they are steered. If there is a change in what is steering a storm...say from a strong ridge guiding it west until a trough moves in and begins to turn it north....as the ridge's influence on the storm wanes and the trough takes over guiding it...there is usually a slow down....think of it as a tug of war to move the storm...a slow-down is often a tip off that a ridge is losing its influence. A track like Floyd off the coast of florida is a great example.

Ike would have to slow down in order to change direction.Is their still a chance of that happening around Florida or did the ridge solidify more.

Hurricanes do not have to slow down to change direction. They are not an animate object. It is a whole different deal when dealing with a weather system.

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm definitely not buying a Texas threat with one run of models. And neither should any of you.


Wait to see if any consistency forms here. Calm down....

[deltadog03]

Well, as always, its going to depend on timing.....Models might struggle with this even more now that we are awaiting to see if a trof will come down enough to pick him up.