ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[jinftl]

wow...that is intense...i thought it was a bug on my screen at first.

Given the forecast changes we have seen with ike in the last few days....take heart that the next model run will probably be right or left. And then left or right. Repeated a couple of times.

This is the worst frame I have ever seen from this model:



Link

[cycloneye]

Texas is in play with GFDL in this 18z run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[shah8]

HWRF 18z is doom. period.

[vaffie]

SETexas without a doubt is back in the game with this storm. Models are definitely shifting west.

For sure. What a horrible thought. It would be quite amazing if it actually reached all the way here in the middle of September, but the models are certainly trending here, that's for sure. I think by the 0Z runs on Tuesday morning (from 12 am to 2 am)--in 54 hours from now, the models will converge, and we will have a pretty good idea whether the storm will hit SE LA, C LA, SW LA, SE TX, C TX or S TX. At least that's when I will feel like I know.

[Stormcenter]

HWRF 18z is doom. period.

Link please to the "doom".

[perk]

I don't think the point is that it stalls or not...it's just that sadly, GFS doesn't see an effective enough Front to keep this away from turning...


That justifies landfall starting from SW LA to the Panhandle...a massive cone of error.

How did you come up with SW LA to the Panhandle. If you plot those coordinates you can easily see that the GFDL has Ike moving WNW almost due west at the end. I can easily make a case further west than Louisiana.

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF says hello to Texas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Weatherfreak000]

Geez..what a shift!

[Stormcenter]

18z HWRF says hello to Texas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

No way I buy into this. I expect a change and a change and ......

[Duddy]

SETexas without a doubt is back in the game with this storm. Models are definitely shifting west.

Well crap.

[Stormcenter]

Not another Rita scenarios.
I just can't see this panning out.

[HurricaneRobert]

A track like that would be a national catastrophe.

[shah8]

Hey! don't forget to have pity for the Cubans! Double-hit by major hurricane landfalls. Two, count'em, TWO cat 4 landfalls from Ike on Cuba. Then the hypercane proposal in the gulf.

[PTPatrick]

I think the thing to remember is that neither of these models show a landfall...they show a stall. I still think if this stalls south of LA, there no way it goes to texas. GFS showed as much with a 2 day meander then landfall in Vermillion. Stall will basically lead it to wait for a weakness = landfall vermillion bay eastward. Where it stops I think is about as far west as this will get before a turn due north or NNE.

[Frank P]

Is it me or does it seem like every night the Ike models shift west, then in the morning they shift back to the east, then the cycle repeats again...

[Duddy]

A track like that would be a national catastrophe.

Beyond 126 hours wouldn't it shirt North towards the middle-upper Texas Gulf coast?

After tracking these things for soo long, I just can't see it going to Brownsville or Corpus. Maybe all the people praying in LA are effecting the track.

[Cyclenall]

I'm stunned at the way the models are shifting. Now Texas could be at risk if the models continue showing a more west movement at the end? If anyone had said that Texas could be at risk by Ike (2 days ago), they would be called crazy and stupid by all.

[Duddy]

18z HWRF says hello to Texas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

What's is the strength of Ike in that last frame? Cat 4?

[Stormcenter]

Is it me or does it seem like every night the Ike models shift west, then in the morning they shift back to the east, then the cycle repeats again...

You are correct. I'm sticking with a landfall east of 88.

[Duddy]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I told my wife I'd take a break from hurricane watching until this became more of a threat to the GOM or our area, but a bet with Shiner involved is too hard to turn down. I'm putting up my 10+ days map right here and now and willing to take anyone in the Galleria area of Houston (I know you are Ed) out for a few beers after the storm or even better I'll happily go let you buy me a few... So here's my forecast track 10+ days out and I'm going to stick to it no matter how painful it may get 5 or 6 days from now

So here it is, anything in the extremely small cone (at us landfall) gets me many beers and even more headaches in other ways (I really don't want to see this and I realize it's just a strange form of -removed-).

*THIS IS THE POSTER'S IMAGE AND NOT IN ANY WAY TIED TO AN ACTUAL FORECAST PATH OR NHC OPINION*
*IT IS ONLY AN AMATEUR'S ATTEMPT AT PREDICTIVE MODELLING VERY FAR INTO THE FUTURE*

Page 6 of this thread.