ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[jhpigott]

Is there any chance of a shift towards SFL in the 5 AM update when they have info on the atlantic high and everything? I just wanna make sure so I don't have to worry about it, sorry NOLA.

the 0Z models should have most of the upper air data from the NOAA G-IV flights incorporated into its runs tonight - that combined with Ike's track looking like its starting to flatten out a little earlier than progged . . . going to keep me watching this close for another 12-24 hours . . . if Ike hasn't trended east by then - I think we can blow the all clear here in SEFL in my unofficial non-NHC amatauer opinion

[jinftl]

All clear for a SFL landfall maybe...keep in mind...with latest forecast track at 5pm, the NHC still put a 40% chance that Miami would experience tropical storm force winds.

Being on the dirty side also may mean we get more rain, squalls, etc. than if he was passing us to our east.

Is there any chance of a shift towards SFL in the 5 AM update when they have info on the atlantic high and everything? I just wanna make sure so I don't have to worry about it, sorry NOLA.

the 0Z models should have most of the upper air data from the NOAA G-IV flights incorporated into its runs tonight - that combined with Ike's track looking like its starting to flatten out a little earlier than progged . . . going to keep me watching this close for another 12-24 hours . . . if Ike hasn't trended east by then - I think we can blow the all clear here in SEFL in my unofficial non-NHC amatauer opinion

[Weatherfreak000]

Geez....so latest GFS says...doomsday again?

I need to see the GFDL and HWRF...if they shifted west too I think ym heart is going to sink.

[jhpigott]

All clear for a SFL landfall maybe...keep in mind...with latest forecast track at 5pm, the NHC still put a 40% chance that Miami would experience tropical storm force winds.

Being on the dirty side also may mean we get more rain, squalls, etc. than if he was passing us to our east.

Is there any chance of a shift towards SFL in the 5 AM update when they have info on the atlantic high and everything? I just wanna make sure so I don't have to worry about it, sorry NOLA.

the 0Z models should have most of the upper air data from the NOAA G-IV flights incorporated into its runs tonight - that combined with Ike's track looking like its starting to flatten out a little earlier than progged . . . going to keep me watching this close for another 12-24 hours . . . if Ike hasn't trended east by then - I think we can blow the all clear here in SEFL in my unofficial non-NHC amatauer opinion

unless Ike's windfield expands, wouldn't he almost have to go thru the middle keys to experience TS conditions in Miami?

[MGC]

Isobars are so tightly packed on the 18Z GFS run that Ike looks like a big black blob approaching the coast.....MGC

[jusforsean]

I so want to stop watching i cant help but think it is going to impact SFL a little more than people here are now thinking! I wonder if the 5am will shift north, a little, doesnt it look like its direction is changing ever so slightly at this point or is that a wobble?

[jinftl]

tropical storm windfield actually did expand to 140 miles at 5pm update from 125 miles at the prior update. A path near Key West could certainly bring some squalls onshore south florida with ts gusts....even if no sustained winds of that speed. Being on the east side as well, the possibility that we may see tornadoes has to be considered as well.

A path say from Key West and west....peripheral effects in south florida. Wouldn't be a clear sunny day with a storm to our west (us being on dirty side) by even 200 miles probably. A track east of Key West and we could be in for ts conditions in more than a squall or 2.




[/quote]

unless Ike's windfield expands, wouldn't he almost have to go thru the middle keys to experience TS conditions in Miami?[/quote]

[Stormcenter]

He sure stalls out for a long time.

That's why I don't think this (track) will pan out.
If I'm not mistaken didn't the GFS show the same (a stall)scenario
with Gustav during of it's runs.

[jinftl]

If it helps....what would the immediate impact of a north shift at 5am be for south florida? We are already being told to prepare. Landfall would still be 48 hours away. It really wouldn't mean much in the short-terms vs what we are doing now.

Plus, what it Monday morning, the track shifts away again. I know people want definitive answers to the 'all clear' question...the most likely scenarios right now are promising for south florida...but the storm is still in an area...where we at least need to check advisores during the next few days.

I so want to stop watching i cant help but think it is going to impact SFL a little more than people here are now thinking! I wonder if the 5am will shift north, a little, doesnt it look like its direction is changing ever so slightly at this point or is that a wobble?

[HCSD]

746

WHXX04 KWBC 062329

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



HURRICANE IKE 09L



INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 6



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 21.6 69.1 255./13.0

6 21.1 70.3 249./11.7

12 20.9 71.6 259./13.0

18 20.8 72.7 265./10.1

24 20.6 73.8 262./10.5

30 20.7 74.7 273./ 8.5

36 20.8 75.9 275./10.9

42 21.1 77.1 285./11.2

48 21.4 78.2 283./10.7

54 21.8 79.1 294./ 9.4

60 22.4 80.2 298./12.5

66 23.0 81.3 300./11.3

72 23.6 82.3 299./11.1

78 24.1 83.2 302./ 9.8

84 24.6 83.9 302./ 8.0

90 25.1 84.8 302./ 9.0

96 25.5 85.4 308./ 7.0

102 26.0 85.9 306./ 6.8

108 26.1 86.7 284./ 6.5

114 26.3 87.3 282./ 6.2

120 26.5 88.0 283./ 6.5

126 26.5 88.9 274./ 7.5


Another West shift...

[captain east]

He's probably moving due west right now but did travel north a little, but could just be a wobble. We'll just have to sit here and wait...

[Weatherfreak000]

I don't think the point is that it stalls or not...it's just that sadly, GFS doesn't see an effective enough Front to keep this away from turning...


That justifies landfall starting from SW LA to the Panhandle...a massive cone of error.

[Weatherfreak000]

746

WHXX04 KWBC 062329

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



HURRICANE IKE 09L



INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 6



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 21.6 69.1 255./13.0

6 21.1 70.3 249./11.7

12 20.9 71.6 259./13.0

18 20.8 72.7 265./10.1

24 20.6 73.8 262./10.5

30 20.7 74.7 273./ 8.5

36 20.8 75.9 275./10.9

42 21.1 77.1 285./11.2

48 21.4 78.2 283./10.7

54 21.8 79.1 294./ 9.4

60 22.4 80.2 298./12.5

66 23.0 81.3 300./11.3

72 23.6 82.3 299./11.1

78 24.1 83.2 302./ 9.8

84 24.6 83.9 302./ 8.0

90 25.1 84.8 302./ 9.0

96 25.5 85.4 308./ 7.0

102 26.0 85.9 306./ 6.8

108 26.1 86.7 284./ 6.5

114 26.3 87.3 282./ 6.2

120 26.5 88.0 283./ 6.5

126 26.5 88.9 274./ 7.5


Another West shift...

I've never used this smiley before but....

[jinftl]

This run shows Ike not getting north of 26.5N through 120 hours. Call me crazy...how long before a Yucatan landfall after Cuba is shown?

746

WHXX04 KWBC 062329

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



HURRICANE IKE 09L



INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 6



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 21.6 69.1 255./13.0

6 21.1 70.3 249./11.7

12 20.9 71.6 259./13.0

18 20.8 72.7 265./10.1

24 20.6 73.8 262./10.5

30 20.7 74.7 273./ 8.5

36 20.8 75.9 275./10.9

42 21.1 77.1 285./11.2

48 21.4 78.2 283./10.7

54 21.8 79.1 294./ 9.4

60 22.4 80.2 298./12.5

66 23.0 81.3 300./11.3

72 23.6 82.3 299./11.1

78 24.1 83.2 302./ 9.8

84 24.6 83.9 302./ 8.0

90 25.1 84.8 302./ 9.0

96 25.5 85.4 308./ 7.0

102 26.0 85.9 306./ 6.8

108 26.1 86.7 284./ 6.5

114 26.3 87.3 282./ 6.2

120 26.5 88.0 283./ 6.5

126 26.5 88.9 274./ 7.5


Another West shift...

I've never used this smiley before but....

[Weatherfreak000]

18Z GFDL...disregards the front. Very similar to GFS.

[Rainband]

i wanna see the new models with the gulfstream data though I am starting to breath a sigh of relief

[perk]

He sure stalls out for a long time.

That's why I don't think this (track) will pan out.
If I'm not mistaken didn't the GFS show the same (a stall)scenario
with Gustav during of it's runs.

If memory serves me right the 18Z Euro also shows a stall off the Texas coast, so the GFS scenario might not be that far fetched.

[Stormcenter]

He sure stalls out for a long time.

That's why I don't think this (track) will pan out.
If I'm not mistaken didn't the GFS show the same (a stall)scenario
with Gustav during some of it's runs.

If memory serves me right the 18Z Euro also shows a stall off the Texas coast, so the GFS scenario might not be that far fetched.

[HurricaneRobert]

This is the worst frame I have ever seen from this model:



Link

[Weatherfreak000]

SETexas without a doubt is back in the game with this storm. Models are definitely shifting west.