ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z GFS rollin..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Is it a little south of the last run? Looks like it may take Ike just south of Cuba.

Looks like it takes the impossible trek over Cuba...

[Blown Away]

are the 0Z models going to have the G-IV data inputted? that's should give us a better handle on the storm

The NHC seems to have a pretty good handle on Ike, I can't imagine this data will change the current thinking/forecast that much. Seems like a NGOM'er storm.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Western tip of cuba in 84 hrs(3.5 days)

[jinftl]

who knows..maybe ike will never reach the gulf...instead making landafall in the yucatan or belize...and fade out over yucatan (staying south of bay of campeche)

18z GFS rollin..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Is it a little south of the last run? Looks like it may take Ike just south of Cuba.

[Dean4Storms]

Actually it keeps Ike just along the north coast of Cuba and into the East central GOM.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Actually it keeps Ike just along the north coast of Cuba and into the East central GOM.

Still wobbling West in 7 days in C/GOM south of LA..Allt the way to TX?

[Dean4Storms]

I just would be shocked if this storm made it all the way to Texas, but who knows.

[PTrackerLA]

Ike is wayyyyy to close to me in this GFS run. As Brent mentioned earlier, I don't think I've ever seen the GFS show a system this intense. This SUCKS.

[Brent]

Good grief.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Landfall id Gustav style in the 18Z..

[marcus B]

He sure stalls out for a long time.

[PTrackerLA]

Great, landfall basically on top of me . Kick us while we're down I guess.

[deltadog03]

Well, thats a shift west....Looks like GFS showed down the trof/front coming in...We are going to see fluctuations...

[Dean4Storms]

18z HWRF .........

Along north coast of Cuba and follows the GFS pretty much.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z HWRF .........

Along north coast of Cuba and follows the GFS pretty much.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Thats yesterdays

[Dean4Storms]

18z HWRF .........

Along north coast of Cuba and follows the GFS pretty much.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Thats yesterdays

Sorry, didn't catch that, thought it was out too early.

[PTPatrick]

I think this will run the length of cuba, end up do south of Mobile by about 300 miles and then gradually feel a weakness and come north, probably with a landfall between New Orleans and Panama City. I know GFS stalls it and pulls it north to Vermillion bay, but it has had a tendancy to be a little less than Progressive in the 5-7 day range lately. And a stall for that long that far up in the gulf would be pretty remarkable.


PLEASE FOLLOW THE HURRICANE CENTERS FORECAST AS I AM BUT A PEON IN THE WORLD OF FORECASTING AND I STAYED AT A HOLIDAY INN LAST NIGHT.

[jinftl]

Don't stalls usually result in a change in heading as far as movement...i could be wrong...but can't think of too many storms that were heading nw, stalled for a few days, and then continued on nw.

I make this claim under the risk of being very wrong...just a thought i had...a stall in the gulf could be the result of a trough moving in..and maybe he would get pushed to ne towards fl big bend or west coast.

I think this will run the length of cuba, end up do south of Mobile by about 300 miles and then gradually feel a weakness and come north, probably with a landfall between New Orleans and Panama City. I know GFS stalls it and pulls it north to Vermillion bay, but it has had a tendancy to be a little less than Progressive in the 5-7 day range lately. And a stall for that long that far up in the gulf would be pretty remarkable.


PLEASE FOLLOW THE HURRICANE CENTERS FORECAST AS I AM BUT A PEON IN THE WORLD OF FORECASTING AND I STAYED AT A HOLIDAY INN LAST NIGHT.

[captain east]

Is there any chance of a shift towards SFL in the 5 AM update when they have info on the atlantic high and everything? I just wanna make sure so I don't have to worry about it, sorry NOLA.

[jinftl]

Anything is possible....a huge change would have to take place to show a SFL landfall...but possibly a more likely scenario would be a track closer to the keys meaning SFL could get tropical storm type conditions.

Even if there are huge changes at 5am....landfall is still a few days away....plenty of time to do what is needed.

Is there any chance of a shift towards SFL in the 5 AM update when they have info on the atlantic high and everything? I just wanna make sure so I don't have to worry about it, sorry NOLA.