ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[jlauderdal]

It looks like if Ike stays on its present track it would miss us by 200 to 300miles to the south. That high won't weaken until Ike is SW of us,another words I'm no longer that concerned about it affect Palm Beach county.

good analysis, some squally weather maybe

[cape_escape]

I am sorry...I am a HUGE fan of the euro, but that dosn't look correct at all. There is a front that stretches all the way down to the gulf coast from NE. I would think that front should draw it up and in.....

Up and in meaning?

[HouTXmetro]

I've learned not to doubt the EURO... I called SELA for Gustav. I'm calling for Central TX-SWLA strike for Ike.

[deltadog03]

Up N towards the coast....

[boca]

It looks like if Ike stays on its present track it would miss us by 200 to 300miles to the south. That high won't weaken until Ike is SW of us,another words I'm no longer that concerned about it affect Palm Beach county.

good analysis, some squally weather maybe

We might not even get squally weather because of the substience around Ike.

[deltadog03]

BTW, I use this ARL site for model thickness to help me make my forecast....Here is what the 12z GFS shows next SAT..

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/data/ready/usr/ ... rlplot.gif

[cape_escape]

Up N towards the coast....

Thank you, that's what i thought but wasn't sure. What's your thoughts on a recurve into the West Coast of Fla?

[jlauderdal]

It looks like if Ike stays on its present track it would miss us by 200 to 300miles to the south. That high won't weaken until Ike is SW of us,another words I'm no longer that concerned about it affect Palm Beach county.

good analysis, some squally weather maybe

We might not even get squally weather because of the substience around Ike.

that is a possibility, lets see how big the general gets though, it seems like its been breezy and rainy ever since fay arrived on the scene, today is very nice and lets hope it continues, not to sound like a w***c****r i always feel like sept and oct is prime time for us so we have another 6 weeks to be on the lookout, i really hope cuba does some damage to ike, the north gulf coast and panhandle have really seen enough already

i dont trust any of these models though even with this slow convergence to a solution, deltadog though seems to have the most reasonable idea to date

[boca]

I'm hoping Ike will stay clear of those oil rigs out there in the NGOM.

[ROCK]

BTW, I use this ARL site for model thickness to help me make my forecast....Here is what the 12z GFS shows next SAT..

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/data/ready/usr/ ... rlplot.gif

based on the 12z GFS run which shows a strong pac front digging off the TX coast shunting Ike to the NNE.......EURO is complete opposite to some degree.....front is delayed or not as strong....our last AFD discussed this FROPA earlier. They said they were warming up to the idea but was not completely sold on it......

Besides Delta, it is Sept and technically summer still.....

[LowndesCoFire]

What was deltsdog's idea? I must have missed that.

[robbielyn]

Up N towards the coast....

Thank you, that's what i thought but wasn't sure. What's your thoughts on a recurve into the West Coast of Fla?

ah none most likely. this is strictly a panhandle west storm. sorry I know you weren't asking me but if you saw the ARL just above you would see that. central west coast manatee through citrus probably feel dry subsidence like with gustav sure has been hot with all that dry air from gustav hannah and now ike.

[southerngale]

OK...not sure..but we just got a good front in Texas...it was 68 this morning at the TX/LA border on the coast. Would it be so unusual for one to get here again next week? I mean it is not normal..but it seems it could be possible.

A good front? I just left a baseball game and it was super hot out there - all drenched from sweat. I know... ewww.
Bring on a really good front.

Oh, and I think Euro is on crack. Isn't it the only one showing western GOM?

[deltadog03]

I wouldn't say its anyone storms yet....WAY too early to tell, but EURO is an interesting solution that just looks weird...

[Bellarose]

Up N towards the coast....

Thank you, that's what i thought but wasn't sure. What's your thoughts on a recurve into the West Coast of Fla?

ah none most likely. this is strictly a panhandle west storm. sorry I know you weren't asking me but if you saw the ARL just above you would see that. central west coast manatee through citrus probably feel dry subsidence like with gustav sure has been hot with all that dry air from gustav hannah and now ike.

K, if not a recurve, what do you think about it getting close enough to the coast for bad, squally weather? We'll be in the NE quadrant at some point, no?

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm hoping Ike will stay clear of those oil rigs out there in the NGOM.

Most of the natural gas production (as well as the oil rigs) is concentrated farther west...

On another note, the mid level dry air and a capping inversion has contributed to a serene, gorgeous day here in southeastern Florida. I was definitely outside earlier...

[PTPatrick]

Let us not forget the Euro had Hanna hitting NOLA about now as cat 4....NUFF SAID

[ROCK]

Let us not forget the Euro had Hanna hitting NOLA about now as cat 4....NUFF SAID

we are not talking wild swings with the EURO as it did with Hanna. Sure in the beggining the EURO destroyed New York but since that run it has narrowed down to the WGOM to LA....that is 5 runs now within a similar area. Besides you never look at the EURO for intensity. You leave that up to the GFDL and HWRF that makes everything a cat 5....

[Sabanic]

Gotta a bad feeling for somewhere along the central Gulf Coast

[AtlanticWind]

Looking at Ikes present motion I would say the UKMET may have the right idea with ike going into the carribean than into the southern gulf. I would never thought possible a couple of days ago.