ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[KWT]

GFDL looks good for track but doesn't weaken Ike nearly enough overland, in that regard the HWRF looks about right however notice how huge the GFDL makes Ike once its back into the gulf, what a chunky storm that would be!

[superfly]

None of these models are weakening Ike enough over Cuba. There's no way it will still be a cat 1 if it spends 24 hours over Cuba.

[shah8]

Boy, this is looking seriously awful for Cuba. That kind of long raking action means hurricane devestation along a pretty big stretch, and stretching Cuban living standards even more...

[setxweathergal]

Damnit, can this thing just do what they initially said it was going to do?

Because if this keeps up its going to hit Louisiana.

We barely have power back from Gustav

My heart goes out to everyone that is still recovering from Gustav to have to wonder if Ike is only going to make things worse for you. I'm praying that no one gets this because it's just sad anyway that you look at it. Prayers for all...

[Jagno]

I'm just afraid that if Ike slows to much over the gulf then a westward motion would ensue as shown in the last few frames. Strong deep south fronts are somewhat unusual this time of year. We normally don't see the fronts reach us until the later part of September and that is generally very weak ones at that. Right now I'm more concerned with our Mississippi and Alabama friends here as most of the models seem to have shown a curve towards them recently. It's just models and I know they will change many times between now and the 3 day cone but it sure is nerve racking.

[Dean4Storms]

on behalf of ivanhater ...

on behalf of myself ...... oh crap ..

and on behalf of me . . . Oh double Crap

On behalf of myself......Oh TRIPLE Crap! I would be in the eastern quad for sure!!!

[BOPPA]

[quote="cycloneye"]IH,this 12z GFDL loop is for you.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation[/quote

I sure don't like this one - seems to put it TOOOOO close to us in SW Fl.
for my comfort zone. Get the shutter down, don't get the shutters down
it is back and forth every 30 mins.

[TTheriot1975]

OK...not sure..but we just got a good front in Texas...it was 68 this morning at the TX/LA border on the coast. Would it be so unusual for one to get here again next week? I mean it is not normal..but it seems it could be possible.

[vaffie]

I just really want to know what the Euro does. It was the first to stop taking Ike up the east coast and enter the Gulf, and it has since led the way in the westward march of model runs for the last 36 hours and is still the most extreme west model right now--taking it all the way to Brownsville in the 0Z run. I just want to know what the 12Z run does now. Is it going to persist or is it going to start moving back east?

[cape_escape]

IH,this 12z GFDL loop is for you.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation[/quote

I sure don't like this one - seems to put it TOOOOO close to us in SW Fl.
for my comfort zone. Get the shutter down, don't get the shutters down
it is back and forth every 30 mins.

BOPPA, I don't understand these pictures, what are you seeing? Is it possible Ike could recurve in our neck of the woods, or more likely just pass us closely in the GOM?

[Weatherfreak000]

[setxweathergal]

OK...not sure..but we just got a good front in Texas...it was 68 this morning at the TX/LA border on the coast. Would it be so unusual for one to get here again next week? I mean it is not normal..but it seems it could be possible.

It felt great this morning! Isn't there something (high/front/whatever you call it) that is suppose to be protecting us? A local met mentioned a rather high percentage that it should stay well to our east!!

[BOPPA]

Cape Escape = when you put the animation feature on it takes it from the current position, just scraping SW coast and then on up - but you have to turn on the animation.

[Weatherfreak000]

Track should remain consistent at 5 i'd say.

[vaffie]

Track should remain consistent at 5 i'd say.

I think they have no choice but to shift it westward slightly. They're at the northern edge of all of the most recent dynamic models now.

[ROCK]

I just really want to know what the Euro does. It was the first to stop taking Ike up the east coast and enter the Gulf, and it has since led the way in the westward march of model runs for the last 36 hours and is still the most extreme west model right now--taking it all the way to Brownsville in the 0Z run. I just want to know what the 12Z run does now. Is it going to persist or is it going to start moving back east?

Well Vaffie you know me the EURO hugger of all time......the EURO has been the trend setter for all of these models....4 runs in row with a lone run about 3 days ago into NO, Upper Tx, TX/LA border, SW LA, and Central LA as the lone run.......wait a few more hours and you will have your 12z Euro.......

[cape_escape]

Cape Escape = when you put the animation feature on it takes it from the current position, just scraping SW coast and then on up - but you have to turn on the animation.

Thak you...that might make a difference....

[TTheriot1975]

Yes..I think that is what our local mets said. The high should stay well to our east...well...that would lead it that way...if some of these models hold, then the high might be over us..or not as well to the east as they are predicting...I am wishing it away..but I would really feel bad for LA if they get another hit. But I also remember Rita!! Those high pressures seem to move at a whim...

[cycloneye]

Track should remain consistent at 5 i'd say.

I think they have no choice but to shift it westward slightly. They're at the northern edge of all of the most recent dynamic models now.

And today,it has not gained any latitud.,on the contrary losing.

[Windy]

Track should remain consistent at 5 i'd say.

I think they have no choice but to shift it westward slightly. They're at the northern edge of all of the most recent dynamic models now.

True, but the GFDL and HWRF are the eastern outliers. The GFDL has been doing a "good" (i.e., better than crap, like the rest of the models) job with this storm thus far. Wonder how they decide which models to listen to.