ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

Water vapor loop

The trough to the Northeast and ridge on top seem to be following Ike. Note also the protective Wsterlies remain well established over all but extreme South Texas.

Protective westerlies?? Protecting where from what?

You can note from this WV loop that ridge axis is beginning a tilt from southwest to northeast orientation (not due north and south)

Hard to get anything to cross the entire Gulf to come to Texas when steering is blowing from the West.

European, subject to wild mood swings, does bring Ike to SW Louisiana on today's run, but had 2 days in a row of Carolinas to New York, and 500 mb operational and ensemble GFS have generally shown all/most of Texas with Westerlies.

Lake Charles is the same latitude (roughly) as HOU, and about 100 miles away. Westerlies from 700 mb up. I suppose a badly sheared storm could slide under that, but nothing bigger, and further, the UK Met's weakening of Ike is probably why it shifted from an Eastern outlier to a Western outlier.

[MississippiHurricane]

How can you be so sure its headed for Texas? IMO its still way to early to call that yet. NO ONE is out of the woods yet and we all know how fast things DO change. Everyone just needs to watch this over the next few days and just make sure you have all of your supplies ready to go just in case.

I did not call for this to come anywhere near Texas.

LOL I was not talking to you ed

[haml8]

Water vapor loop

The trough to the Northeast and ridge on top seem to be following Ike. Note also the protective Wsterlies remain well established over all but extreme South Texas.

Protective westerlies?? Protecting where from what?

You can note from this WV loop that ridge axis is beginning a tilt from southwest to northeast orientation (not due north and south)

Hard to get anything to cross the entire Gulf to come to Texas when steering is blowing from the West.


Ed, what do you think of Derek's forecast compared to what you are seeing?

[Bellarose]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but with lots of people talking about where landfall will be, I am focusing on the fact that it will most likely pass by FL West Coast, on our west. So, we'll be in the "dirty" section. Does this not matter at this point (is it too early)? I was a little complacent and let my hurricane supplies run low (gasp!) and I just want to make sure I'm not over-worrying and be as prepared as I can.

Thanks, everyone, for all your posts. Alot of them are over my head, but I certainly stay more informed than most.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Seems reasonable. And Derek isn't just a degreed met, he is a degreed met who specializes in tropical cyclones...

[Ixolib]

Seems reasonable. And Derek isn't just a degreed met, he is a degreed met who specializes in tropical cyclones...

Is this an official track, model, what??

[southerngale]

How can you be so sure its headed for Texas? IMO its still way to early to call that yet. NO ONE is out of the woods yet and we all know how fast things DO change. Everyone just needs to watch this over the next few days and just make sure you have all of your supplies ready to go just in case.

Who said it was headed for Texas?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but with lots of people talking about where landfall will be, I am focusing on the fact that it will most likely pass by FL West Coast, on our west. So, we'll be in the "dirty" section. Does this not matter at this point (is it too early)? I was a little complacent and let my hurricane supplies run low (gasp!) and I just want to make sure I'm not over-worrying and be as prepared as I can.

Thanks, everyone, for all your posts. Alot of them are over my head, but I certainly stay more informed than most.

Since the 18Z GFS recurves Ike in the Gulf towards Tampa, while I wouldn't panic yet, I might want to stock up on supplies before the possible mad rush. Too early to say safe or not safe anywhere in Florida, IMHO.

I remember the mad rush before Rita, when bottled water and gasoline were as scarce as snowmen in Hawaii. Even though Edoaurd did as I expected, just a mild tropical storm, I anticipated the media hype, and got supplies the night before the hype hit, and avoided some serious lines and waits.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks reasonable. And Derek isn't just a degreed met, he is a degreed met who specializes in tropical cyclones...

Is this an official track, model, what??

It is from pro-met Derek Ortt, but isn't the official NHC forecast.


New NHC track is close to Derek's...

[zeusman]

Seems reasonable. And Derek isn't just a degreed met, he is a degreed met who specializes in tropical cyclones...

That beats me.. I am a degreed met who specializes in meso scale snowfall paterns in mountainous terrain.... Perhaps I should stick to the Avalanche boards

[setxweathergal]

How can you be so sure its headed for Texas? IMO its still way to early to call that yet. NO ONE is out of the woods yet and we all know how fast things DO change. Everyone just needs to watch this over the next few days and just make sure you have all of your supplies ready to go just in case.

Who said it was headed for Texas?

somewhere several pages ago someone mentioned Galveston.

[haml8]

Derek has been very good so far as this newbie can tell. I just hope that IF the time comes and this continues on the path that people adhere to the NHC. Thank goodness that there is a disclaimer on the 5day track.

[haml8]

How can you be so sure its headed for Texas? IMO its still way to early to call that yet. NO ONE is out of the woods yet and we all know how fast things DO change. Everyone just needs to watch this over the next few days and just make sure you have all of your supplies ready to go just in case.

Who said it was headed for Texas?

somewhere several pages ago someone mentioned Galveston.

Someone prognosticated that there would be a Galveston hit and I said "Shhhhh" kidding of course..

[Bellarose]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but with lots of people talking about where landfall will be, I am focusing on the fact that it will most likely pass by FL West Coast, on our west. So, we'll be in the "dirty" section. Does this not matter at this point (is it too early)? I was a little complacent and let my hurricane supplies run low (gasp!) and I just want to make sure I'm not over-worrying and be as prepared as I can.

Thanks, everyone, for all your posts. Alot of them are over my head, but I certainly stay more informed than most.

Since the 18Z GFS recurves Ike in the Gulf towards Tampa, while I wouldn't panic yet, I might want to stock up on supplies before the possible mad rush. Too early to say safe or not safe anywhere in Florida, IMHO.

I remember the mad rush before Rita, when bottled water and gasoline were as scarce as snowmen in Hawaii. Even though Edoaurd did as I expected, just a mild tropical storm, I anticipated the media hype, and got supplies the night before the hype hit, and avoided some serious lines and waits.

Thank you so much. I guess it won't hurt to grab some water (maybe some beer), batteries and gas up the Jeep. We just programmed our NOAA radio. I'm sure it will keep trending South thanks to our force field, though, lol

Thanks again!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Seems reasonable. And Derek isn't just a degreed met, he is a degreed met who specializes in tropical cyclones...

That beats me.. I am a degreed met who specializes in meso scale snowfall paterns in mountainous terrain.... Perhaps I should stick to the Avalanche boards

How come you haven't PM'd the admins and gotten the coveted blue and bolded nic and official S2K recognition as a pro-met?


BTW, I am all over these boards in a rabid lather whenever an off hour GFS run shows the happy intersection of sub 540 dm thicknesses and precip over SE Texas at tau 266...

[Ixolib]

Is this an official track, model, what??

It is from pro-met Derek Ortt, but isn't the official NHC forecast.

Oh, okay, thanks. I was thinking it was official guidance or a model plot of some sort. I live in St Pete but have property and a home in Biloxi, so seeing that kind of track didn't help the heart much... Now that I've looked at the NHC track, it seems Ortt's well west of that.

[MississippiHurricane]

How can you be so sure its headed for Texas? IMO its still way to early to call that yet. NO ONE is out of the woods yet and we all know how fast things DO change. Everyone just needs to watch this over the next few days and just make sure you have all of your supplies ready to go just in case.

Who said it was headed for Texas?

I cant remember his name........his post got deleted it seems

[gatorcane]

anybody have a link to the 00 UTC GFS?

[LowndesCoFire]

Hurricane Kate 1985

[jhpigott]

when's the next set of models come out? i'd venture if they trend anymore south, florida may find itself out of the cone . . . however, lets remember we are still days away from any CONUS landfall, a lot can change