ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[jinftl]

didn't the models see that with hanna this time last week too?

Based on the latest models, the NHC forecasted track will probably be adjusted south yet again at 11. This track goes against climatology, but the models must be seeing the ridge strengthening SW.

TG

[captain east]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
Turn on the Trop Fcst Pts at the top, it's moving SW right now, but barely south.

It appears it did move slightly south, but then it seems to just continue west in the last couple of frames

Ya I just looked at it again after a couple of frames and it apparently seems to be moving West or barely S and W.

[wxman57]

didn't the models see that with hanna this time last week too?

TG

Yes, and Hanna took a dive to Haiti when the models indicated the left turn.

[chris_fit]

didn't the models see that with hanna this time last week too?

TG

Yes, and Hanna took a dive to Haiti when the models indicated the left turn.

But Hanna was forecast to slow wasn't she? Ike will be booking it correct?



*edited by sg to fix the quotes

[Blown Away]

Based on 18Z models will the NHC shift the track S enough to take most of SFL out of the cone?

[x-y-no]

I think it's looking very clear that the GFDL overestimated the ridge, at least in the short term. I'm not finding an eastern Cuba impact credible at all given this.

If anything, the track overnight may be ever so slightly north of the NHC track, but not enough to quarrel with it. So now I'm pondering if this means the ride is overestimated for the next day or two as well.

[Lifesgud2]

Based on 18Z models will the NHC shift the track S enough to take most of SFL out of the cone?

We will still be in the cone, albeit BARELY. This is such good news. In fact, I wouldnt be surprised to see Broward county out of the cone first think tomorow morning.

[HURAKAN]

x-y-no, until we get the NOAA plane investigating the surroundings of Ike, the ridge may be overestimated or underestimated. I think that we should get a better consensus by Sunday.

[x-y-no]

Based on 18Z models will the NHC shift the track S enough to take most of SFL out of the cone?

No way. It would take a shift south of Cuba to do that and there's nothing in the models (except the outlier GFDL) to support that.

[loxahatchee13]

are there more model runs before the 11:00pm update?

[jinftl]

Considering the area of cone around the tuesday forecast point went from the latitude of Jacksonville all the way to almost the Cayman Islands...i can't imagine how an even 100 mile shift would somehow clear south fl in an hour

Based on 18Z models will the NHC shift the track S enough to take most of SFL out of the cone?

[x-y-no]

x-y-no, until we get the NOAA plane investigating the surroundings of Ike, the ridge may be overestimated or underestimated. I think that we should get a better consensus by Sunday.

Absolutely agree. But my point was only about the very short term. The NHC track is north of the GFDL by .4 degree or something like that at 6z this morning, and it looks like the actual track will be at or barely north of the NHC point.

[bucman1]

When Ike gets in the se Gulf some models have shown Ike heading back NNE or a right turn towards the West coast,what should we be looking for synoptically for that to occur?

thank you!

[timeflow]

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008

I recently discovered this site from people I work with... had not seen it linked in here before, but perhaps I missed it along the way. Thought I'd share. It's linked straight to Ike but it contains all other active storms AND an archive... I pulled up 1989 just now for example. This site has great design and functionality, very professional. Two thumbs up.

Check out the models (option top right) - not certain, but these may be early cycle track guidance. If not, close enough. Ike still has that Donna-like potential recurve at the tail end. It's difficult to imagine what is going to come of this.

[x-y-no]

When Ike gets in the se Gulf some models have shown Ike heading back NNE or a right turn towards the West coast,what should we be looking for synoptically for that to occur?

thank you!

Looks like the GFS traps Ike with deep layer ridging the wraps all the way around to his west, and he just hangs out in the eastern Gulf until a pretty sharp shortwave trough comes along and kicks him NE.

[Sanibel]

Absolutely agree. But my point was only about the very short term. The NHC track is north of the GFDL by .4 degree or something like that at 6z this morning, and it looks like the actual track will be at or barely north of the NHC point.

GFDL will bust soon if it doesn't get more WSW soon. Unless there's a weird SW-NE elongation of the ridge ahead GFDL will be wrong. Which makes me wonder how that will program into the model consensus and tracks further west? I expected Ike to track north of Cuba in a modified variation of the precise GFDL track, but since GFDL went even more south yet the actual movement is right along trop points it raises the obvious question of what else will turn out to be too far south? Is this the beginning of a more north track? You know the ramifications of that.

[jinftl]

If there is any shift right in the coming days...it will be attributed to 'margin of error' no doubt...

Absolutely agree. But my point was only about the very short term. The NHC track is north of the GFDL by .4 degree or something like that at 6z this morning, and it looks like the actual track will be at or barely north of the NHC point.

GFDL will bust soon if it doesn't get more WSW soon. Unless there's a weird SW-NE elongation of the ridge ahead GFDL will be wrong. Which makes me wonder how that will program into the model consensus and tracks further west? I expected Ike to track north of Cuba in a modified variation of the precise GFDL track, but since GFDL went even more south yet the actual movement is right along trop points it raises the obvious question of what else will turn out to be too far south? Is this the beginning of a more north track? You know the ramifications of that.

[x-y-no]

Absolutely agree. But my point was only about the very short term. The NHC track is north of the GFDL by .4 degree or something like that at 6z this morning, and it looks like the actual track will be at or barely north of the NHC point.

GFDL will bust soon if it doesn't get more WSW soon. Unless there's a weird SW-NE elongation of the ridge ahead GFDL will be wrong. Which makes me wonder how that will program into the model consensus and tracks further west? I expected Ike to track north of Cuba in a modified variation of the precise GFDL track, but since GFDL went even more south yet the actual movement is right along trop points it raises the obvious question of what else will turn out to be too far south? Is this the beginning of a more north track? You know the ramifications of that.

I'm still thinking something close to the 12Z HWRF run is the most likely scenario. It was a little north of what's verified so far, but overall it seems to match the actual ridge we're seeing ...

[Lifesgud2]

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008

I recently discovered this site from people I work with... had not seen it linked in here before, but perhaps I missed it along the way. Thought I'd share. It's linked straight to Ike but it contains all other active storms AND an archive... I pulled up 1989 just now for example. This site has great design and functionality, very professional. Two thumbs up.

Check out the models (option top right) - not certain, but these may be early cycle track guidance. If not, close enough. Ike still has that Donna-like potential recurve at the tail end. It's difficult to imagine what is going to come of this.

excellent site. Thanks for the info

[bucman1]

are there other models juming on boards with the GFS deep layer trough solution?