ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[ROCK]

0z Euro is similar to 12z - still far west outlier, though.

Southerngale, I have stuck by my guns through this whole time....the EURO (though I really dont hug it like WX warrior) latched on to Gus after making some wild swings early on......2nd run in a row.....Its sniffing something and other models are also (but not to the extent the EURO) right now.......today should be interesting.....

but if these CURRENT landfall runs verify you FL guys better take this seriously.......cat 4 would be devestating.....to what scale I dont know but it would have to be up there in the top 10 of all-time.....

[ROCK]

When you read about the potential and how it's computed, it's for absolutely ideal conditions. Ike will have somewhat favorable conditions near landfall but definitely not perfectly ideal. Still, I love these maps.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL



nice map to consider for you FL folks.......this could get real ugly for you guys.....

yes, I realize that....just mentioning the possibility and what CAN be supported....

[DESTRUCTION5]

06 GFS shoots the straights and heads into central gulf!

[ROCK]

06 GFS shoots the straights and heads into central gulf!

now that is interesting.....whats the 500mb heights?


errily similar to the EURO.....

[KWT]

Well the 0z ECM is certainly interesting and the models have been trending slowly westward generally, much further westward and the Cuba risk increases again as the ECM.

I'm not all that sure what model is most likely mind you right now, but most of the models would give a very bad situation for southern Florida.

GFS holds the ridge far longer on this run...

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


so far there is a monster ridge...dont see the weakness like before in prior runs...

[jlauderdal]

Well the 0z ECM is certainly interesting and the models have been trending slowly westward generally, much further westward and the Cuba risk increases again as the ECM.

I'm not all that sure what model is most likely mind you right now, but most of the models would give a very bad situation for southern Florida.

GFS holds the ridge far longer on this run...

the same gfs that had it well east of the bahmas, lets see if the gfs can settle down for a few runs

[KWT]

That may well be a trend we need to watch, the ECM did suggest that would be the case, also raises the chances of a Cuba landfall as well it seems like the GFDL/ECM suggests.

[Nimbus]

GFS is a credible model so the possibility of a gulf coast landfall is growing larger.

I'm sure most Floridians hate to see Ike track south of them this far out, myself included. As AFM explained surprise poleward revisions to track caused by a strong storm finding a ridge weakness happen more often.

[ROCK]

That may well be a trend we need to watch, the ECM did suggest that would be the case, also raises the chances of a Cuba landfall as well it seems like the GFDL/ECM suggests.

yeah, not really watching Ike in these runs, GFS is jacked up in intensity....but the ridge and position is interesting as well as the trofs not digging as much over the CONUS.....

looks like a similar SUMMER pattern ED!!!

edit- to add I prefer my shiner ice cold BTW.....none of this lukewarm stuff...

[deltadog03]

Hmmm...Now, some want too take this gom bound huh.....This is going to one interesting track for sure!!!

[ROCK]

GFS is a credible model so the possibility of a gulf coast landfall is growing larger.

I'm sure most Floridians hate to see Ike track south of them this far out, myself included. As AFM explained surprise poleward revisions to track caused by a strong storm finding a ridge weakness happen more often.

Rita comes to mind....

[KWT]

Nimbus, I wouldn't be surprised if the models are somewhat overdoing the ridge now, sort of swinging too far the other way so to speak but the trend is for the trough not to be strong enough to lift it out. Still not great agreement on that but the GFDL hinted at that, as does the 06z GFS and the ECM...Probably the best chance of Florida avoiding a hit is for Ike to hit Cuba instead...

[DESTRUCTION5]

this GFS seems suspect...Not only does it take Ike to NO it als has a winter type front blowing thru the SE..?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[JPmia]

It appears that there could be a trend in the models south of the peninsula, possibly through the Keys/Straits?

[ROCK]

It appears that there could be a trend in the models south of the peninsula, possibly through the Keys/Straits?

I would not bet against a SFL landfall right now if my life depended on it......this is an extremely dangerous situation for FL and I hope everyone has a plan....

you never take one or two runs as a trend.....it will bite you in the @#@....

[deltadog03]

I think the FALL type cold front should be given some credit. I know its still away, but appears that we are heading into a pattern change. Especially as we are now into september.

[KWT]

The only thing I'll say is the GFS tends to overdo cold thrusts past 120hrs.

Anyway there are certainly signs this may just continue to plow westwards without much if any turning to the NW, but the uncertain part is exactly where does it track, does it go through the straights, does it hit S.Florida or does it hit Ciuba?

[fci]

And the frustrating part is that we may not know for a while and will have to fully prepare either way.

[Sabanic]

Well I do know now that my statement about Dr. Bill Williams stating yesterday how there was a possibility Ike could make it into the GOM was not so absurd. I took a bashing for just mentioning what he said. Sure nothing is definite now, but the possibilty is definitely there.