ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

12 Z Strikes SFL /Miami from the south...

[ROCK]

Hey ROCK nothing personally just remember those crazy model runs that had Gustav hitting Mexico,AL.,MS.FL. and the Upper Texas coast yet the model consensus always had Central LA. as the focus. I'm not saying can't happen but only that right now it's not likely...IMO.

I am with you.....SC......just didnt want to thrown into the TX pool of wc'ers....if you know what I mean....

[Wx_Warrior]

Rock has become the prototypical 'current' model lover! He has taken the EURO-hugger title away from me!

BTW...There goes Ike!!! 132

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

Bullseye on S FLA>

[ftolmsteen]

What's the big deal about mentioning the E. GOM as a realm of possibility?

[Bgator]

Yup, 00z GFS hits S. Fla going N.

[Windy]

Yup! From a storm chase in rural Kansas. Thanks!

I agree. Is there a full sized version somewhere we can see?

Sure! Well, not quite full sized, but if you click "All sizes" in Flickr, it'll get pretty big:

http://flickr.com/photos/digicana/251884035/

[boca]

Hey Rock do you hug the nogaps?

[Stormcenter]

All the model joking aside I don't like the look of this for S. Florida at all.
My take is "if" this hits S. Florida it won't be a Cat. 3-4.

[AtlanticWind]

I am hoping these models change soon , not ready for a major .... Guess nobody ever is

[ROCK]

Hey Rock do you hug the nogaps?

only on those certain occasions when I need to laugh.....ever since the AE98 was discontinued I havent had much to laugh at......

[boca]

All the model joking aside I don't like the look of this for S. Florida at all.
My take is "if" this hits S. Florida it won't be a Cat. 3-4.

What cat do you think it would be? I'm hopeing for a cat2. I sure hope this is no Andrew.

[ROCK]

All the model joking aside I don't like the look of this for S. Florida at all.
My take is "if" this hits S. Florida it won't be a Cat. 3-4.

I go with Cat3 just b/c Hannas upwelling was minimal....shes wasnt like an upwelling machine out there.....plenty of TCHP to go around......

[Stormcenter]

All the model joking aside I don't like the look of this for S. Florida at all.
My take is "if" this hits S. Florida it won't be a Cat. 3-4.

What cat do you think it would be? I'm hopeing for a cat2. I sure hope this is no Andrew.

I thinking a Cat.2.

[capepoint]

I am hoping these models change soon , not ready for a major .... Guess nobody ever is

Thats true, but hey, we took Hannah for you guys. So it's your turn next. We up here don't wanna be hoggy..

On a more serious note, I have a feeling we may both be having Ike over for dinner next week. It's almost time to say "Oh Crap!" from Fla to NC.

[ROCK]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL



nice map to consider for you FL folks.......this could get real ugly for you guys.....

[attallaman]

Could Ike pose a threat to the GOM?

well that depends on what the last EURO was sniffing......

Why did I know the GOM threat talk was coming soon? Anyway if it someone
made it in there it wouldn't be there too long. IMO

I happen to live in the C/GOM region, that's why I asked.

[attallaman]

What's the big deal about mentioning the E. GOM as a realm of possibility?

I agree. Those of us who live along the GOM are naturally concerned that Ike could either pass south under FL then enter the GOM or make landfall on the EC/FL and cross over into the GOM. After having had a taste of Gustav earlier this week naturally I'm concerned about any potential GOM threat but I hope that there won't be one. Much of my area is still cleaning up what Gustav brought to us earlier this week.

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008090500

Nogaps just off coast of Fla.

[caneseddy]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&prod=prp&dtg=2008090500

Nogaps just off coast of Fla.

Another model shifting west. Nogaps was the one turning the storm the farthest east and it's now coming closer to the coast. Looks like bulls-eye is centering for somewhere around South Florida