ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Windy]

Can someone please research what is the average (in miles) difference or spread between actual landfalling TS & Hurricanes locations from the original NHC forecasted landfalling position from 5 days out (5 day cone) ?
Thanks.....

TG

ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

[artist]

Can someone please research what is the average (in miles) difference or spread between actual landfalling TS & Hurricanes locations from the original NHC forecasted landfalling position from 5 days out (5 day cone) ?
Thanks.....

TG

ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

Windy your avatar is incredible! I feel sure you shot itl

Got so excited I couldn't even spell! lol

[Windy]

Can someone please research what is the average (in miles) difference or spread between actual landfalling TS & Hurricanes locations from the original NHC forecasted landfalling position from 5 days out (5 day cone) ?
Thanks.....

TG

ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

Windy your avatar is increidible! I feel sure you shot itl

Yup! From a storm chase in rural Kansas. Thanks!

[ROCK]

I know its the NAM...just looking at the 500mb


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[attallaman]

Could Ike pose a threat to the GOM?

[ROCK]

0z GFS rolling in.....

as AFM said not really looking at the storm itself since it is intialized as 1008mb rather looking at the 500mb heights...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

[ROCK]

Could Ike pose a threat to the GOM?

well that depends on what the last EURO was sniffing......

[srainhoutx]

Could Ike pose a threat to the GOM?

well that depends on what the last EURO was sniffing......

Shift to the US GFS and watch the Gulf of Alaska carefully for some "hints" at the 500mb level.

[ROCK]

Could Ike pose a threat to the GOM?

well that depends on what the last EURO was sniffing......

Shift to the US GFS and watch the Gulf of Alaska carefully for some "hints" at the 500mb level.

yeah I see it.....Will Ike be far enough south to miss it is the big question....


BTW- dont you just love the way this run opens up Ike to a TW.....

[Bolebuns]

Yup! From a storm chase in rural Kansas. Thanks! [/quote]

I agree. Is there a full sized version somewhere we can see?

[Bgator]

00z GFS coming in. Farther south and west through 90 hours.

[DESTRUCTION5]

00Z much further west thru 3 days..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[AtlanticWind]

GFS looks farther south and west on this run

[boca]

Yes I noticed that too compared to the 18z run.

[Stormcenter]

Could Ike pose a threat to the GOM?

well that depends on what the last EURO was sniffing......

Why did I know the GOM threat talk was coming soon? Anyway if it someone
made it in there it wouldn't be there too long. IMO

[MiamiensisWx]

Prospects of a south FL hit have certainly become greater... operational GFS run is evidence, though there are numerous variables that could alter the track.

[ROCK]

Could Ike pose a threat to the GOM?

well that depends on what the last EURO was sniffing......

Why did I know the GOM threat talk was coming soon? Anyway if it someone
made it in there it wouldn't be there too long. IMO

SC, how so? are you watching the 0zGFS run currently? Anyway, I was just discussing the model runs not trying to stir up any GOM talk......sheesh.....

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS all over the place (this far out) with every storm thus far. My NEGOM procrast may come true! Westerlies may be all over Ike before it's all said and done.

OT: Rock, saw where Pearland finally got'em a win.

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

farther west and south......


Pearland is the bomb!!!

[Stormcenter]

Hey ROCK nothing personally just remember those crazy model runs that had Gustav hitting Mexico,AL.,MS.FL. and the Upper Texas coast yet the model consensus always had Central LA. as the focus. I'm not saying can't happen but only that right now it's not likely...IMO.