ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[cpdaman]

nice blowup of convection

i am skeptical hanna can shed the dry air because there is so much of it around and inside her circulation, but you never know

txwatcher where is your location, seems like you may have some weather coming in

[BensonTCwatcher]

seriously though she may be trying to get her upper air act together. if the anticyclonic flow to her east moves over her it might continue. outflow has been terrible all along

[txwatcher91]

nice blowup of convection

i am skeptical hanna can shed the dry air because there is so much of it around and inside her circulation, but you never know

txwatcher where is your location, seems like you may have some weather coming in

I would prefer not to say since I get accused of -removed-, but I can PM it to you.

Latest WV shows Hanna has established a new inflow channel, from Haiti and east Cuba versus earlier coming from west Cuba and the GOM. In fact, dry air may mix out some more tonight if that blob can continue expanding.

does anyone have any comments about my thoughts on the previous page?

[cpdaman]

there appears to be a decent moist flow trying to come up from the east cuba and the se bahamas, but also some dry air on the sw side, let's see which one gets in toward the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

edit txwatcher beat me to it

also keep an eye on this bouy overnite

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

[BensonTCwatcher]

yes but I don't thinh that dry air gets out of there before landfall esp. if she picks up speed. Maybe a Cat 1, but I'd guess strong TS at landfall witha large windfield

[cpdaman]

man that ULL is really helping stretch that western rainshield out into fl

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

benson i think there is time so long as she stays at 15-16 mph thru midnite. i'm just not sure she want's to stop letting that dry air in from the sw

[Tropics Guy]

Looks like Hanna may be trying to Bomb out tonight......................

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

TG

[cpdaman]

slow down tropics guy "bomb out" is a bit of a stretch . i think alot of people equate that with RI.


here is a weather station very close to the center....maybe just to the wnw

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ID=IABACO2

[Weatherfreak14]

The Latest NOGAPS model shows a landfall near Hilton Head once again is that a possiblity of this happening as it looks that the center is just to the west of the center of the forcast track????

[emeraldislencguy]

I live at Emerald Isle NC--will keep eveyone posted aboutt he storm here

[cpdaman]

The Latest NOGAPS model shows a landfall near Hilton Head once again is that a possiblity of this happening as it looks that the center is just to the west of the center of the forcast track????

i would say absolutely

i wonder if the center hasn't already or is trying to get tucked further west under the convective blow up tonite

[LarryWx]

NHC Hanna positions:

2 PM 25.1 N, 74.2 W
5 PM 25.5 N, 75.0 W
8 PM 26.0 N, 76.0 W

- 2-8 PM movement: 0.9 N, 1.8 W...WNW not NW movement although NHC continues calling it NW

- The 18Z GFS 6 hour map (for 8 PM tonight) had it a shade east of 75 W vs. the NHC actual position of 76 W.

Is Hanna going to end up a degree or more west of the model consensus/NHC track once it reaches the U.S.? If so, that would be quite a bit further SW than the projected extreme SW NC coast...i.e., all of the way down to central SC and maybe even Charleston!

Anyone else have a good feel for this?

[JtSmarts]

Hanna is still fighting, that's for sure. It will be interesting to see if the NHC makes any southward shifts in the track at 11.

[sittingduck]

slow down tropics guy "bomb out" is a bit of a stretch . i think alot of people equate that with RI.


here is a weather station very close to the center....maybe just to the wnw

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ID=IABACO2

This sure makes it appears as if the center is tucking under that convection. If so - then she is a little west of the track. What do you think her movement is?

[cpdaman]

seriously how much further can hanna's rain shield go west

east central florida is about to get some downpours

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... X&loop=yes
actually this one shows it better

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... b&loop=yes

[txwatcher91]

LLC looks under the convection now to me.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[cpdaman]

larry i have no idea how much further west this thing could go

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

seems like the mid level ridge to the north west was blocking it from picking up major speed today? (you can see this feature better by clicking back on 3 hour increments a few times)

this mid level ridge connected with the bermuda high so there is no weakness to the NE right now, it appears to me (and i am no genius) that the thinking is hanna is suppose to ride the SW periphery of the mid level ridge (which is suppose to erode away as the mid level high center is just off the n.carolina/ virginia right now. while the periphery in the image above seems to run from jacksonville west to south central alabama then turning north. Also the trough extending from the ohio vally to the north central gulf does not seem to be making much progress east ward as you can see here

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

so the only way this continues to go further west may be

that the mid level ridge extends further south and west and may be slower to erode on it's SW periphery than forecast. but honestly i am not to the level of forecasting to be that confident in my reasoning and should it be correct reasoning i would watch for the updated cimmss steering flow charts showing that periphery sliding NE'ward

and also of course keep looking at the updated model runs

[cpdaman]

LLC looks under the convection now to me.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

that makes it look like a no brainer

the other thing i noticed though is it appears hanna doesn't want a part of the s inflow either

[tpr1967]

There where models calling for a east central fl landfall not to long ago.
one was the 0318Z Nogaps
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... =ngp_namer
Soundings at 05/00Z showed deep E-NE winds across N FL and South Carolina.
So who knows it my hit the coast near the space center. Thats not a forecast.

[txwatcher91]

LLC looks under the convection now to me.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

that makes it look like a no brainer

the other thing i noticed though is it appears hanna doesn't want a part of the s inflow either

Yeah, its inflow is now more dominant from moisture-laden Haiti, and with all of the tropical systems they have had there ought to be plenty of moisture. I see also an upper level anticyclone moving slowly towards her that could help her out. I still think Cat 1 is possible.