ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Lowpressure]

Looking at recon she has a rather large wind field currently.

[cpdaman]

Looking at recon she has a rather large wind field currently.

yes she does, if she ever gets away from the ULL, she will finally show everyone how absolutely huge she can be. she has been sheared for 5 days and has still looked pretty large (despite convection being limited to 2 quads (now 1)

outer bands reaching central florida

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... b&loop=yes

[AdamFirst]

Gotten rather blustery and overcast here. We're essentially out of the strike zone but Hanna's fingertips are being felt here in Florida, as part of her collective "slap" to the east coast

[Tropics Guy]

Getting windy here in Vero Beach, worst of any weather we get will be tonight & tomorrow......

TG

[orion]

Well I was surprised this morning when I saw the sad shape she was in, and again now that I see the convection building again on the northwest side. Looks like she is on the verge of doing something, possibly later tonight/early tomorrow if she gets a break. Looks to me like conditions are going to improve eventually though I think she will have a hard time reaching hurricane status. 18Z still showing about 30 kts of shear from the south... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF and the 18Z shear tendency seems to be decreasing to the east, but increasing to her west... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF.

She certainly has the convergence... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8conv.GIF and I am wondering what y'all think about the ULL becoming more of a help than a hindrance. She's not lacking upper level divergence ... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dvg.GIF but boy has she been fighting shear.

My thinking is a strong TS or perhaps a weak cat 1, but just don't think there is enough time for anything more than that even if conditions improve.

[cpdaman]

adam and tropics guy look at the rain shield expand west toward you guys

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

kind of odd, but i think it will show a more northerly shift very soon, either way squally conditions toward midnite are very possible, especially near the coast

oh ya and a overhead NE swell for several hours on friday

[txwatcher91]

Well I was surprised this morning when I saw the sad shape she was in, and again now that I see the convection building again on the northwest side. Looks like she is on the verge of doing something, possibly later tonight/early tomorrow if she gets a break. Looks to me like conditions are going to improve eventually though I think she will have a hard time reaching hurricane status. 18Z still showing about 30 kts of shear from the south... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF and the 18Z shear tendency seems to be decreasing to the east, but increasing to her west... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF.

She certainly has the convergence... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8conv.GIF and I am wondering what y'all think about the ULL becoming more of a help than a hindrance. She's not lacking upper level divergence ... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dvg.GIF but boy has she been fighting shear.

My thinking is a strong TS or perhaps a weak cat 1, but just don't think there is enough time for anything more than that even if conditions improve.

Agree here, if she can work the dry air out and get in shear under 15kts, preferably 10kts, with about 24 hours to strengthen (starting tonight) then she could reach cane status IMO.

[cycloneye]

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW
IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK
BEACH LIGHT...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO GREAT EGG INLET NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC...
WASHINGTON D.C...AND THE DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

[orion]

Is my computer doing something strange or is anyone else getting some color frames mixed in with the visible loops on the floater???

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

[cpdaman]

latest recon pass shows center further west near 25.5 / 75.5 (broad center but wind shift and lowest winds/lowest pressure) are found there

[cpdaman]

hanna is also going over water of high TCHP now

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8247at.jpg

and when she gets north of 28 (wee hours) she may be able to lose the ULL and the dry air

going for a walk out to the beach wanna take a look at these squalls off S palm beach county

[jhpigott]

a little pre-Ike warm-up from our gal Hanna here along SEFL coast

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

[KWT]

Convection still firing up on the NW side of Hanna but the center looks very broad at the moment, not sure theres really a centered circulation right now.

[JonathanBelles]

Ive got the outer clouds of Hanna moving in here now.

[txwatcher91]

Well since no one is interested in Hanna, I thought I would post my thoughts.

1. On water vapor the dry air appears to be slowly decreasing. Hanna is getting farther away from that source of dry air and could possibly tap into some more tropical moisture farther north. Our local office mentions a front moving off the ocean that should bring PW values up to 2.5 inches from the current 1-1.5, so this moisture may help some.

2. There is some type of upper level anticyclone to her east that may be slowly sliding towards her. You can see it very well on the image below.

3. While recon was in there pressure fell from 989 to 987, not much strengthening, but it is indicative of some organization. FL winds also were in the low 50s at the beginning of the mission but increased to near 60.

4. There is a very solid convective burst going on currently and if this can manage to expand and cover the whole circulation tonight than it may begin to intensify a little bit, it would also help mix out some of the dry air.

These are my current thoughts, but are not official in any way. Comments welcome.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Hapless Hanna, shaped like a banana
why do you dance with the the lows?
they drop down beside you
and then they ride you
and that dry air is all that she blows


I should not have done that..but maybe a little humor is in order for the weary

[Bane]

convection is on the increase near the center.

[cycloneye]