ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[AJC3]

didnt he post this morning about the trend east

Yes.

and no landfall on the coast

No.

[lonelymike]

The Euro also shows Ike plunging into High Pressure off La in 7 days time. Extremly unlikely. It did well with Gustav Horrible with Hanna.

[Bocadude85]

so no real change from the 12z gfs compared to the 18z gfs?

[KWT]

GFS still recurves around the same point, around 77-78W is when it lifts up, though it makes the high a touch weaker sooner on this run it appears.

[GTStorm]

Aren't we all talking about a system that is 1000 + miles out there like it's going to hit S. Fl. The models can change on a dime. When Sunday comes around and Miami is beating the crap out of the Jets. Then I'll believe the Models. If they didn't change drastically by then.

I agree the models can shift significantly. But what is concerning is that they seem to already
be in tight agreement, but day 5 forecasts can be up to 300 miles off, so the models can shift.
Yes it is nearly 800 miles east (visual estimate, not an accurate figure), but the Rate of movement
being so quick at between 14-18 mph over the past several days is what increases the concern.

Not pinning down Miami or any other city just yet. In 2 more days we will have a much more
confident idea about Ike's potential impact to South Florida.

You are correct. It is pointless to pinpoint anywhere on a five day time scale, no matter if all of the models were to even agree on the same final coordinate. What should be interpreted from the models is "starting at this known point, the track should look something like this", or "the storm will go in this general direction then go in that general direction".

[KWT]

HWRF...south of previous track, skirts Cuban north coast between 90-108hrs at least...very close to the 12z GFDL actually...

[AtlanticWind]

HWRF...south of previous track, skirts Cuban north coast between 90-108hrs at least...very close to the 12z GFDL actually...

Do you have a link?

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z GFDL runs right thru the Spine of Cuba..

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL tracks thru the spine of Cuba.

WHXX04 KWBC 042330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.4 57.6 290./13.0
6 23.7 58.7 283./10.5
12 23.5 59.8 264./10.3
18 23.6 61.2 272./13.0
24 23.4 62.6 260./12.4
30 22.9 63.8 250./12.3
36 22.5 65.4 255./15.4
42 22.0 66.9 250./14.5
48 21.5 68.3 253./14.1
54 21.1 69.7 253./13.7
60 20.6 70.9 248./12.3
66 20.4 72.0 257./10.3
72 20.3 73.0 267./ 9.5
78 20.2 74.0 262./ 9.1
84 20.3 74.9 277./ 8.8
90 20.6 75.8 291./ 9.5
96 21.2 76.9 296./11.4
102 21.5 77.8 288./ 8.7
108 22.0 78.6 306./ 9.6
114 22.6 79.5 302./ 9.7
120 23.0 80.2 299./ 7.9
126 23.5 80.6 320./ 6.0

[Ivanhater]

HWRF...south of previous track, skirts Cuban north coast between 90-108hrs at least...very close to the 12z GFDL actually...

Has it going through the Straits

[KWT]

The good thing about that track is its inner core would likely be in serious trouble with that much land and it'd only have a very small time period to strengthen back up again I'd think...thats a better run then the HWRF run at 12z...much better for Florida even though its still bad obviously.

[Weatherfreak000]

Geez..I was about given up on the GOM solution...and now the models are throwing it back into the mix?


The GFDL amazes me sometimes.

[KWT]

Looks like the 12z ECM was onto something, thus far the ECM and the GFDL have been the trend setter with regard to the forecasted track, both the GFDL and the HWRF look bad with regards to the keys...very bad...

[Scorpion]

The HWRF goes north of Cuba and slams Key West and I assume is headed toward the West Coast of Florida.

[Weatherfreak000]

If the GFDL is right..and this thing gets tangled up in Cuba...best bet is the thing will definitely weaken significantly.


Assuming that happens....and the GFDL is pretty far south...wouldn't it miss this "Weakness", that probably wouldn't be much of a weakness anyway...and certainly would be less effective?

Just a thought.

[Vortex]

Its made the turn west...

[KWT]

GFDL comes off Cuba and is at 963mbs around 126hrs and deepening, only slowly moving NW on its way to a recurve I guess...

[Scorpion]

[KWT]

Wow thats a splitting image of Donna there...

[HouTXmetro]

I don't know how to read those maps but is that another High Building in the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley?