ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[KWT]

Windy, dheck the ECM, also the UKMO would be strongly hinting at a Gulf threat...still we don't know about any Florida hit so talk of a gulf threat is a little early...

[Ivanhater]

well I hope wxman comes in tonight to show that consensus map

[AJC3]

well I hope wxman comes in tonight to show that consensus map

You can make you own...

http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/09-googlemaps.shtml

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well, those models seem to be on a strong
agreement on a major hurricane almost over
Miami. Again, things and models can change 5
days out...so it could recurve like Floyd did...or
not....too early to tell, but definitely check up on those
hurricane preparations just in case.

The ridge that would be pushing this system is pretty
strong as of right now, having pushed some of Hanna's
higher clouds- or sheared Hanna's higher clouds Westward and
inducing a NW motion in Hanna. Ike's forward speed is still
14, indicative of a ridge to the north, but again a trough
or low is forecasted to move off the east coast, so that may
protect Miami/Florida. But it is too early to tell what will
happen. That trough could knock out the strong ridge and recurve
Ike further north on a Floyd track. Or Ike could barrel into Miami,
or somewhere in between FL and Carolinas. The Bahamas are gonna get a nasty blast.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Aren't we all talking about a system that is 1000 + miles out there like it's going to hit S. Fl. The models can change on a dime. When Sunday comes around and Miami is beating the crap out of the Jets. Then I'll believe the Models. If they didn't change drastically by then.

[Ivanhater]

well I hope wxman comes in tonight to show that consensus map

You can make you own...

http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/09-googlemaps.shtml

Oh sweet..great link AJC3!

[gatorcane]

well I hope wxman comes in tonight to show that consensus map

You can make you own...

http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/09-googlemaps.shtml

Wxman has been absent since last night when he was talking about a possible recurve or Carolina threat.

Somehow I knew that that was a bad sign not seeing him post today.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Aren't we all talking about a system that is 1000 + miles out there like it's going to hit S. Fl. The models can change on a dime. When Sunday comes around and Miami is beating the crap out of the Jets. Then I'll believe the Models. If they didn't change drastically by then.

I agree the models can shift significantly. But what is concerning is that they seem to already
be in tight agreement, but day 5 forecasts can be up to 300 miles off, so the models can shift.
Yes it is nearly 800 miles east (visual estimate, not an accurate figure), but the Rate of movement
being so quick at between 14-18 mph over the past several days is what increases the concern.

Not pinning down Miami or any other city just yet. In 2 more days we will have a much more
confident idea about Ike's potential impact to South Florida.

[KWT]

He has probably been busy with Hanna and Ike I suppose gatorcane

Still 18z GFS coming out soon, very important run to see if it trend even further west or not...very interesting to see what the 18z cycle shows!

[sunnyday]

I've read that if a state is in the cone several days out, they will likely not be in the cone at landfall because the track of the storms change quite a bit. I've noticed that lately. So--So. fl. is in the cone today but will probably not be in a day or two, right?

[Canelaw99]

You can't go by that sunnyday. If I recall correctly, LA was in Gustav's 5 day cone fairly early on and it held true with very little shifting. There are just some times the NHC is right on with their cones. I, for one, am hoping this is not one of those times, but it is really hard to argue with that many models aiming for here.

[gboudx]

I've read that if a state is in the cone several days out, they will likely not be in the cone at landfall because the track of the storms change quite a bit. I've noticed that lately. So--So. fl. is in the cone today but will probably not be in a day or two, right?

Don't know about that. The La coast was in the Gustav cone from Day 5 until landfall. Maybe you're thinking that the safest place to be is the middle of the cone because it changes. But, the Central La coast was in the cone for so long, I don't even know if that held.

[sunnyday]

You're right about that time. I really don't want to see Ike up close and personal!

[MusicCityMan]

Im not totally convinced he could be that far south.. west palm or vero?

[Ixolib]

I've read that if a state is in the cone several days out, they will likely not be in the cone at landfall because the track of the storms change quite a bit. I've noticed that lately. So--So. fl. is in the cone today but will probably not be in a day or two, right?

Don't know about that. The La coast was in the Gustav cone from Day 5 until landfall. Maybe you're thinking that the safest place to be is the middle of the cone because it changes. But, the Central La coast was in the cone for so long, I don't even know if that held.

No doubt, while the NHC - and everyone else for that matter - still have some difficulty on projecting intensity, their ability to utilize the model data for establishing an accurate track five days out has significantly improved year after year, with this year seeming to be amazingly excellent.

In fact, while the current error is ~300 miles at day five - hence the size of the cone at that stage - I'd imagine in a few short years, that pre-determined error will shrink considerably. I see no reason why the models and data crunchers at the NHC won't have that particular science figured out to a much greater degree than they did even two or three years ago, not to mention their accuracy thus far this year. While the old adage of "the trend is your friend", once held a lot of weight, I now believe today's technology has a much better grasp on true science vs. trend science.

[Weatherboy1]

the difference between, say, Hanna and Ike is that Ike is more of a traditional CV storm. It is not standing still, it is moving. The models MAY very well shift more in the coming day or two. But I think the shifts will be much less dramatic than they were with Hanna, where the darn thing was just sitting there for 48 hours.

[lbvbl]

Can Ike grow in size before landfall?

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z GFS recurves in the NW Bahamas again this Eve.

[jlauderdal]

well I hope wxman comes in tonight to show that consensus map

You can make you own...

http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/09-googlemaps.shtml

Wxman has been absent since last night when he was talking about a possible recurve or Carolina threat.

Somehow I knew that that was a bad sign not seeing him post today.

didnt he post this morning about the trend east and no landfall on the coast

[Sirius LeWindy]

What a storm and this is getting dangerous for wherever Ike goes. The Euro showed a similiar solution right around when Gus-Gus was making landfall. It is all fun until something like this.