We can say now hurricane Danny !!!!!

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 2:11 pm

The models are iniciating the 1800 UTC as a 65 kt hurricane so we now have the second hurricane of the season how about that in mid july. :o The link to the models are not out as I am typing this post but will be out shortly.

Johnny · #2 Postby **Johnny** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 2:14 pm

Thanks for the information cycloneye. Wow!

chadtm80 · #3 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 2:18 pm

Look at the map..

Hurricane Danny is here

southerngale · #4 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 2:21 pm

Well well well......I'm a little afraid of what the rest of the season has in store for us......2 hurricanes already and it's only July 18th - oh boy! :o

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 2:27 pm

Thanks chad for posting the models grafic rapidly.

And Southergale this is looking like a scary season. :o

chadtm80 · #6 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 2:38 pm

Thank you for bringing it to our attention so quickly

#7 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 2:55 pm

Actually, just because the model forecsats say "Hurricane Danny" doesn't mean the NHC will upgrade it (even though it is probably a strong Cat 1 storm by Dvorak classification now). Remember that those same models said "T.D. 4" forever and the NHC refused ot upgrade Claudette.

One more thing - does anyone think it's odd that the NHC is estimating Danny's pressure at only 1009mb? That's about right for a TD, not a hurricane. More evidence of their reluctance to acknowledge that they blew the forecast for Danny?

chadtm80 · #8 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 3:00 pm

One more thing - does anyone think it's odd that the NHC is estimating Danny's pressure at only 1009mb? That's about right for a TD, not a hurricane. More evidence of their reluctance to acknowledge that they blew the forecast for Danny?

I agree with you there wxman...

This thing is a cane

Stormsfury · #9 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 3:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:Actually, just because the model forecsats say "Hurricane Danny" doesn't mean the NHC will upgrade it (even though it is probably a strong Cat 1 storm by Dvorak classification now). Remember that those same models said "T.D. 4" forever and the NHC refused ot upgrade Claudette.

One more thing - does anyone think it's odd that the NHC is estimating Danny's pressure at only 1009mb? That's about right for a TD, not a hurricane. More evidence of their reluctance to acknowledge that they blew the forecast for Danny?

Danny is sandwiched between a trough to its west and a large subtropical ridge ... can we say "pressure gradient"? ... however, all of us are wondering about that 1009 mb pressure ... also, the peek-a-boo eye that shows up on visible satellite imagery ... not to mention, the Dvorak Classifications have been consistent the last 2 position estimates (6 hours) with a 4.0 reading ... 65 kts, and a 987 mb pressure ... I haven't been too critical but this is indeed a hurricane ...

SF

#10 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 3:46 pm

The pressure gradient is more of an argument for higher winds, not higher pressure. I really doubt that such a strong storm has a pressure of only 1006mb, regardless of where it is. It's probably below 985mb.

#11 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 3:53 pm

Hey WXMAN57...do you work at Universal? I used to work there too...Steve's team. Left in 2000 to go back on active duty.

Stormsfury · #12 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 5:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:The pressure gradient is more of an argument for higher winds, not higher pressure. I really doubt that such a strong storm has a pressure of only 1006mb, regardless of where it is. It's probably below 985mb.

Agreed ...

SF

We can say now hurricane Danny !!!!!

We can say now hurricane Danny !!!!!

Actually, No

Re: Actually, No

Pressure Gradient

Re: Pressure Gradient

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