ATL: IKE Discussion

[Canelaw99]

Thanks jlaud

[fasterdisaster]

Not to spread panic, but Ike could very well be the worst thing my area has seen since Andrew. (Let's hope that STAYS 'since' Andrew)

[gatorcane]

MAX Mayfield:

"the forecast is for a major hurricane to come through the Bahamas and SE Florida"

[Weatherboy1]

well, time to top off the gas tank and get the extra water (before the hordes descend on publix!)

[Tampa_God]

I don't see much reasoning that this storm will reach Cat. 2 status, although they might be doing so because of shear from Hanna. Is this right?

[KWT]

Tampa god, it would have to weaken a decent amount for it to be a cat-2, since its still a bottom end cat-4 at 115kts but who knows?

The NHC do weaken it down to 95kts due to shear but I'm doubtful its all that bad out there from what I'm seeing thus far.

[fasterdisaster]

OK cpdaman, the same guy just said it again on TWC: (slight paraphrasing as I can't remember 100% but it's pretty close) ...and moving very close to the US so we need to keep an eye on this, but on this current track it looks like Ike will move through the Bahamas and take a northerly turn and then move away from the US, and this is what we hope will happen, and this would be due to an upper-level trough. This would be the best case scenario for the US.

[cape_escape]

OK cpdaman, the same guy just said it again on TWC: (slight paraphrasing as I can't remember 100% but it's pretty close) ...and moving very close to the US so we need to keep an eye on this, but on this current track it looks like Ike will move through the Bahamas and take a northerly turn and then move away from the US, and this is what we hope will happen, and this would be due to an upper-level trough. This would be the best case scenario for the US.

I heard that too, and that was pretty close to exact of what I heard.

[miamijaaz]

So far, Ike is hitting his forecast points dead-center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

And I don't see any shear. Is that supposed to affect him later?

[otowntiger]

I don't see much reasoning that this storm will reach Cat. 2 status, although they might be doing so because of shear from Hanna. Is this right?

Just as anything could happen with the track, so could anything happen with the intensity. As quickly as he intensified yesterday, he could just as quickly decrease in strength mainly due to his small size. These types of systems can increase change quickly relative to intensity and the NHC admits and their track record proves that they have very, very little skill when it comes to instensity forecasts. Also did you notice the discussion about the storm apparently reducing somewhat in size? The windfield has shrunk?

[NativeFloridaGirl]

OK cpdaman, the same guy just said it again on TWC: (slight paraphrasing as I can't remember 100% but it's pretty close) ...and moving very close to the US so we need to keep an eye on this, but on this current track it looks like Ike will move through the Bahamas and take a northerly turn and then move away from the US, and this is what we hope will happen, and this would be due to an upper-level trough. This would be the best case scenario for the US.

I can confirm that is what he said. He said it so matter-of-factly. A little premature on the all clear don't you think?

~Beth!

[KWT]

I think anyone saying anything with any real confidence right now is going to lead to the wrong impression, its one of those set-ups that could go either wya depending on how well the trough digs down and how amplified the upstream trough digs. Indeed the ECM suggests this feature won't enough to lift Ike at all but we shall see...

EVeryone from South Florida upto Newfoundland really do still need to keep a close eye on Ike, its not even past 60W yet!

[tolakram]

[Bluefrog]

Max Mayfield is like Zeus' right hand hurricane man ....

[KWT]

looks like Ike is very close to heading due west now, not quite there but its not going to gain much more latitude from now on, this may be as far north as it gets for another 4-5 days?

[lbvbl]

I asked this question earlier but it went unanswered... Is it possible for Ike to increase in size before making landfall? I'm just wondering because it is so compact right now.

[JonathanBelles]

Ive mentioned it in chat, and ill mention it again. This reminds me of Andrew. The size of Ike is about the same as Andrew, intensity may be close (although is not expected), and the track is similar. On the current track, this is the forecast wind field....and it scares me to death:

[Wx_Warrior]

Well, everyone (including TWC) gets one right every now and then.

[KWT]

That is certainly a worrying track for the Bahamas and south Florida fact789, the only good thing is thats its a few days away still so thing can change but I'm starting to think with the models now in total agreement of a W/WSW motion kicking in for a while the odds of a landfall are steadily increasing, still too soon to bve sure whether this will be like Floyd, Andrew or the Bahamas 1932 hurricane....

[cpdaman]

thanks for TWC paraphrase and reasoning

looks like i know what to route for now (dig trough hurry up and dig! well in a couple days anyway)

also it's about to rain some squalls in costal e. florida compliments of hanna ( in case anyone is intrested or has outdoor plans)