ATL: IKE Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 25.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

Why?

[Brent]

[jhpigott]

Max Mayfield says Ike "likely threatening South Florida"

that's a pretty bold statement for the former NHC director to make about a storm 4-6 days out . . . a little concerning sitting here in North Palm Beach

[amanda]

Max Mayfield says Ike "likely threatening South Florida"

that's a pretty bold statement for the former NHC director to make about a storm 4-6 days out . . . a little concerning sitting here in North Palm Beach

that's what i was thinking. usually respected meteorologists are more careful with their speech. so, here is more reason to take this as a serious threat.

[KWT]

Well given the model agreement its hard to argue against Max there, motion now looks to be about 280 eyeballing it and looks like Ike is going to change track soon to the west...coming right on top of the forecast from the NHC as well it seems.

[Canelaw99]

From Chan. 10 WPLG Miami re: Ike....(am paraphrasing mostly, as I'm typing while it's on)

We'll spend most of our time on Ike the next couple of days. Will continue to move generally westward. *showing 11am advis. b/c 5pm isn't in yet* Thinking from NHC - don't want to scare people, want to prepare people. Major cane moving through bahamas, "likely threatening S FL" (Max Mayfield). Main message is threat of major cane, threatening s fl in 4-5 day period. If you already have your prep plan, you're ok, if you don't, then now is a good time to do that.

5pm came in - will come through shear, may even weaken some next day or so, but conditions will be favorable again. Still having a major cane offshore S FL in 5 day period. "don't want people to get panicky". Mayfield said dust off hurricane plan and check your supplies. Impacts would be felt, on this track, as early as Monday here in southern FL. Will have a big impact on the Bahamas, and maybe here. We have through the weekend to get preps ready.

*read 5pm advisory*

Models: have seen them flip-flop last couple of days. Big change today. Mayfield: yesterday we had a couple models showing a turn to the north. UKMET has changed dramatically - showing straight shot westward to S FL. New 'cane model developed by national weather service, GFDL, etc. showing no turn. One model takes it through FL straits. Models showing more westerly track today.

Recon: first planned 2pm tomorrow afternoon. NOAA planes prob up earlier than that.

[cycloneye]

Any idea, at this point, the wind field? How far out would the hurricane strength and tropical strength winds go?

We will have a much better idea starting tommorow as the first 2 planes will go to investigate Ike.

[Brent]

[chris_fit]

NM... I'm an idiot

[mascpa]

Brent, what is the calculation from knots to mph? I thought it was about 1.15 but I am not sure. Thanks.

[Wx_Warrior]

I think most of us on here thought if anything, first would be south florida. No surprise there.

[cpdaman]

TWC said yet again the track will move away from the US.

did they saw "will" or "may" this is important and unless it was vivian what's her name i don't buy they said "will"

[fasterdisaster]

Can't see this going down to Category 2 JIMO.

[fasterdisaster]

TWC said yet again the track will move away from the US.

did they saw "will" or "may" this is important and unless it was vivian what's her name i don't buy they said "will"

To be fair I think they said 'could'.

[RattleMan]

Brent, what is the calculation from knots to mph? I thought it was about 1.15 but I am not sure. Thanks.

Close; I have 1kt = 1.150779448 mph.

[Brent]

Brent, what is the calculation from knots to mph? I thought it was about 1.15 but I am not sure. Thanks.

Yeah, that's correct.

110 kt is 125 mph(the forecast for 5 days).

[fasterdisaster]

Brent, what is the calculation from knots to mph? I thought it was about 1.15 but I am not sure. Thanks.

Yeah, that's correct.

110 kt is 125 mph(the forecast for 5 days).

Oh, when you first posted that I thought that was the current intensity, in which case it would be ridiculous.

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...T.C. HANNA FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST WELL OFFSHORE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT/FRIDAY...

...CONTINUED HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
FROM HANNA THROUGH FRIDAY...

...MAJOR HURRICANE IKE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
LATE THIS WEEKEND...

CURRENT/TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS ECFL THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH AS TC HANNA PROGRESSES NORTHWARD SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HANNA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE
(GREATER THAN 200 MILES). WHILE HANNA REMAINS A FORMIDABLE TROPICAL
STORM...ONLY A SLIM CHANCE REMAINS FOR IT TO STRENGTHEN TO A LOW END
CAT 1 HURRICANE LATE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING.

THE MAIN LOCAL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE MARINE AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST WHERE INCREASING SEAS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SURF...
MINOR EROSION AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL
GO INTO EFFECT EARLY THIS EVENING INTO FRI EVENING AS SEAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST BUILD PAST 10 FEET DURING THE NIGHT AND ON FRI.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST AND GUSTY AT TIMES...STEADILY
INCRSG THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDSPEEDS EXPECTED TO REACH LAKE WND ADV
CRITERIA A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE...SO WILL ISSUE NPW WITH AFTN PKG
AND START ADV OFF AT 4 AM. FARTHER INLAND WINDS WILL SLACK OFF AFTER
SUNSET. SKIES WILL THICKEN FROM TOP TO BOTTOM OVERNIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA. FOR POPS WILL CARRY SCHC ALONG THE
COAST THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING POPS TO SCT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
OUTER RAINBANDS EXPAND NORTHWARD. WILL KEEP A SCHC FOR PRECIPITATION
FARTHER INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH SUSPECT MOST AREAS OF THE
INTERIOR WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. LOWS TO REMAIN MILD AND IN THE 70S
WITH A FEW PLACES ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS CLOSER TOWARDS
80 DEGREES.

FRI...TC HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK QUICKLY NORTHWARD WELL
OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRI. BREEZY-WINDY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LKLY RESULT IN WIND ADV BEING ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL COS VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER
UP THE EAST COAST AND LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
POP VALUES WILL APPROACH LIKELY FROM THE SPACE COAST NWD ALONG THE
COAST AND TAPER DOWN TOWARDS HIGHER END CHANCE FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S WITH A FEW UPPER 80S
POSSIBLE SOUTH AS PRECIPITATION ENDS AND CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

SAT-SUN...CONDS LOOK TO BE PRETTY QUIET WX-WISE WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE
AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN ACROSS ECFL. RAIN CHCS LOOK TO BE PRETTY
MINIMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING 10-20% BOTH DAYS.
COULD SEE A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE SUN...SO HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A
SLGT CHC FOR AFTN SHRS/TS SUNDAY AFTN.

MON-THU...AS BEEN THE NORM SINCE LATE AUG...WE ARE FACED WITH A
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN MED-XTD RANGE FCST. OFCL NHC TRACK FCST PLACES
MAJOR HURCN `IKE` INTO THE SE BAHAMAS BY 12Z MON AND THE NW BAHAMAS
12Z TUE. XTD RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MANY PSBL SCENARIOS RANGING
FROM A RECURVE EAST OF THE FL EAST COAST...TO POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. LATE-ARRIVING 12Z ECM OFF ON ITS OWN WITH A TRACK ACROSS
CUBA AND INTO THE GOMEX. HPC/NHC COORD PTS AT DAYS 6-7 ARE VERY NEAR
THE COAST (27.5N 79.0W AND 30.0N 80.0 RESPECTIVELY). OBVIOUSLY...
5-6 DAYS IS A LONG WAY OFF - THINGS CAN AND WILL CHG...AND HAVE MANY
DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS COMING UP TO PERUSE/WATCH FOR TRENDS.
REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS FOR DISCUSSION OF `IKE`.


SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI

[jlauderdal]

From Chan. 10 WPLG Miami re: Ike....(am paraphrasing mostly, as I'm typing while it's on)

We'll spend most of our time on Ike the next couple of days. Will continue to move generally westward. *showing 11am advis. b/c 5pm isn't in yet* Thinking from NHC - don't want to scare people, want to prepare people. Major cane moving through bahamas, "likely threatening S FL" (Max Mayfield). Main message is threat of major cane, threatening s fl in 4-5 day period. If you already have your prep plan, you're ok, if you don't, then now is a good time to do that.

5pm came in - will come through shear, may even weaken some next day or so, but conditions will be favorable again. Still having a major cane offshore S FL in 5 day period. "don't want people to get panicky". Mayfield said dust off hurricane plan and check your supplies. Impacts would be felt, on this track, as early as Monday here in southern FL. Will have a big impact on the Bahamas, and maybe here. We have through the weekend to get preps ready.

*read 5pm advisory*

Models: have seen them flip-flop last couple of days. Big change today. Mayfield: yesterday we had a couple models showing a turn to the north. UKMET has changed dramatically - showing straight shot westward to S FL. New 'cane model developed by national weather service, GFDL, etc. showing no turn. One model takes it through FL straits. Models showing more westerly track today.

Recon: first planned 2pm tomorrow afternoon. NOAA planes prob up earlier than that.

excellent summary of what he said

[JPmia]

Judging from Max Mayfield's voice...it was rather grave...just an observation.