ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Sabanic]

It's definitely going to be an interesting next 4-6 days to see how the ridge builds, how strong it is, and how far W Ike goes before he begins to curve northward

[cape_escape]

I did hear on the news last night that they are emptying some of the water from Lake Okeechobee, do you think this could be out of concern for Ike's track?

[Bocadude85]

we all know the models will change my guess is back to the east with the 18z model runs

Sure they could they also could go further west , But what are reasons you think they will change?

well gfs still recurves ike offshore fla and it seems to me 18z models always trend east also climatology favors recurve

[Frank2]

Me, too, Gator...

No, the Lake is being lowered slowly over the next 11 days to help with the levee reconstruction work - apparently the Lake can't be too high during that work, and, it rose a bit too much after Fay...

http://www.saj.usace.army.mil/

[rtd2]

we all know the models will change my guess is back to the east with the 18z model runs

Sure they could they also could go further west , But what are reasons you think they will change?

no recon in storm YET

[KWT]

Wow the ECM has shifted way westward as well, its almost back to where they were 4 days ago in terms of model solution. I'm really not sure what to think about the ECM, it may well overdone the ridging this run round but the UKMO supports the ridge holding...

What a tricky few days coming up!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Wow the ECM has shifted way westward as well, its almost back to where they were 4 days ago in terms of model solution. I'm really not sure what to think about the ECM, it may well overdone the ridging this run round but the UKMO supports the ridge holding...

What a tricky few days coming up!

The 12z GFs almost stalls Ike off S. Fla before proceeding north with him so I'm guessing that the interplay between the ridge and how much of a weakness the trough produces is a very subtle one and the storm could very easily recurve at or off florida or proceed west.

[micktooth]

[canetracker]

Anyone know how to get past satellite images from Ike today? I am particuarlly looking for the AVN or Rainbow from this morning.

[KWT]

Very good model consensus right now, though still too early to read all that much into it.

ECM has confused me a touch with what it does between 72-96hrs, in that Ike takes a fair jump to the SW then continues its due west motion, IO suspect a much more realistic set-up is something like the UKMO with regards to that...but some models seem to be suggesting the weakness has been overdone and I've seen the GFS time and time again slowly having to come back west because its overdone the trough weakness...

However the 0z could be back east, who knows!

[HURAKAN]

Anyone know how to get past satellite images from Ike today? I am particuarlly looking for the AVN or Rainbow from this morning.

This website is great: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL092008

[otowntiger]

Very good model consensus right now, though still too early to read all that much into it.

ECM has confused me a touch with what it does between 72-96hrs, in that Ike takes a fair jump to the SW then continues its due west motion, IO suspect a much more realistic set-up is something like the UKMO with regards to that...but some models seem to be suggesting the weakness has been overdone and I've seen the GFS time and time again slowly having to come back west because its overdone the trough weakness...

However the 0z could be back east, who knows!

and I expect it will. I still cannot get too excited/concerned this early. The model concensus is likely to change back east and back west and maybe even back east again before landfall or its nearest passage to the coast. In my opinion there's still as much chance at a re-curve missing the mainland as there is for a mainland hit.

[cape_escape]

Me, too, Gator...

No, the Lake is being lowered slowly over the next 11 days to help with the levee reconstruction work - apparently the Lake can't be too high during that work, and, it rose a bit too much after Fay...

http://www.saj.usace.army.mil/

Thank you frank, I wondered!

[KWT]

Well won't be too long till the 18z GFS comes out, willbe interesting to see if it supports the 12z or goes even further, or whether it goes back east again, we shall see...

[captain east]

135 mph now... And a bit slower moving W NW at 14 mph.

Max has it going right over me now...

[Ivanhater]

Ugh now were back to a gulf solution?? It has already been a bad day at the University today..hopefully Ike will recurve on out...

[timeflow]

Anyone know how to get past satellite images from Ike today? I am particuarlly looking for the AVN or Rainbow from this morning.

I'm not sure if there is a "website" that allows you to pull up a specific image or not. I used to collect them and run fast slideshows of entire seasons.

If you go in here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/img/ you can manually pull avn and rb images one at a time, starting from the top. But there is no way to get the layers for LatLon or forecast points, etc.

Also here is another location for full Atlantic http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/img/ again it can be done manually, which is a little time consuming or with something like Offline Explorer.

Hope that helps.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS runs shortly.....

[KWT]

Yep looks like Ike is slowing a touch in response to the building ridge, look for it to bend to due west in the next 6hrs or so, then from there the slow turn to WSW begins, but to what extent is the great unknown that has to be answered!

[Windy]

Ugh now were back to a gulf solution?? It has already been a bad day at the University today..hopefully Ike will recurve on out...

I've yet to see a model with a Gulf solution -- it's probably a bit early for Gulf coastal interests to be worried.