ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[CalmBeforeStorm]

EURO was the 1st to send it up EC and the 1st back to GOM....I am a EURO guy and I must admit it hasn't been the best this season.

Yeah , the next Euro might target South America

Hey Bob....Pretty good consensus at 5 days on Florida, huh?

[Weatherboy1]

I think the NHC track is going to be shifted awfully close to FL at this point as well at 5 p.m. They may wait until 5 a.m. tomorrow to put it onshore to get one more round of global model runs into the mix.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think the NHC track is going to be shifted awfully close to FL at this point as well at 5 p.m. They may wait until 5 a.m. tomorrow to put it onshore to get one more round of global model runs into the mix.

I really don't think they care where land is when putting up forecast points. They are where they are and if they happen to be on land then so be it.

[ronjon]

Model consensus still places the 5 day position just offshore SE FL. Look for the NHC to nudge the track slightly south of or near the 12 HWRF track with a location about 50 miles from shore at 5 PM.

[captain east]

If Ike would hit us do you think 1 foot wide concrete walls could take on Cat 4 winds? or maybe even 5.

BTW.. I just got home, why did most of the models change to a more FL or close run?

[AtlanticWind]

EURO was the 1st to send it up EC and the 1st back to GOM....I am a EURO guy and I must admit it hasn't been the best this season.

Yeah , the next Euro might target South America

Hey Bob....Pretty good consensus at 5 days on Florida, huh?

Yeah , not where you want to see a Cat 4 .

[O Town]

I think the NHC track is going to be shifted awfully close to FL at this point as well at 5 p.m. They may wait until 5 a.m. tomorrow to put it onshore to get one more round of global model runs into the mix.

I really don't think they care where land is when putting up forecast points. They are where they are and if they happen to be on land then so be it.

I don't think he said they care either, I think all he was saying is he expects the NHC to have the track close to Florida in the next two forecast/advisories.

[bucman1]

I couldn't agree more-the Euro has been very inconsistent and its one run

and I haven't seen any other models jump on board as of yet.

[Frank2]

It's still a long way out, so a lot can happen between now and then - lettuce not forget that AW had Gustav coming up Biscayne Boulevard (Miami) at one point, so, a lot can happen (or not happen) - as we found with Fay, Gustav and Hanna...

Frank

P.S. In case anyone happens to notice - I'll be away from the computer tomorrow and most or all of Saturday...

[captain east]

It's still a long way out, so a lot can happen between now and then - lettuce not forget that AW had Gustav coming up Biscayne Boulevard (Miami) at one point, so, a lot can happen (or not happen) - as we found with Fay, Gustav and Hanna...

Frank

P.S. In case anyone will make a comment - I'll be away from the computer tomorrow and most or all of Saturday...

You probably will never see this but this is different from Gustav. First off it's a small system and second Gustav was much more South than Ike.

[Frank2]

Sure, but, much was expected of Gustav that thankfully never happened (once it weakened over Cuba), and, the same was true of Fay's behavior, and, ditto for Hanna, so, as they used to say in Tiny Toons - "Expect the unexpected!"...

LOL

P.S. I'm still here for a few more minutes...

[miamijaaz]

Looks like the model consensus at this time lies more less where the HWRF is.

[gatorcane]

Sure, but, much was expected of Gustav that thankfully never happened (once it weakened over Cuba), and, the same was true of Fay's behavior, and, ditto for Hanna, so, as they said in Tiny Toons - "Expect the unexpected!"...

LOL

P.S. I'm still here for a few more minutes...

Frank where are you going, to check your shutters? Anyway, I don't recall the model consensus looking like this for Gustav to hit Miami....Ike appears to be a real threat for Southern Florida although I agree it could all change in a matter of a couple of days as new model runs come in.

Count them: 5 or maybe 6 models into SE Florida, reliable models as well.

[bucman1]

Based on the latest models when and If Ike approches S. Fla will it be moving west /NW or WNW ?

[AtlanticWind]

Based on the latest models when and If Ike approches S. Fla will it be moving west /NW or WNW ?

Really any of these are possible

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Based on the latest models when and If Ike approches S. Fla will it be moving west /NW or WNW ?

I could see S. Fla being threatened by a westward moving Ike or a recurving Ike depending upon his position in th Bahamas.

[Frank2]

Gatorcane,

No, I just might not have a chance to log on during tomorrow or Saturday (but we'll see, especially on Saturday)...

I remember when Floyd was approaching, many were going bananas since it was a Cat 5 heading straight this way, but, the trough/front arrived just in time, and, it veered north-northwestward - I probably wouldn't be sitting here if it had come straight across (I might be in Indiana or Iowa, but, not here)...

Frank

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane,

No, I just might not have a chance to log on during tomorrow or Saturday (but we'll see, especially on Saturday)...

I remember when Floyd was approaching, many were going bananas since it was a Cat 5 heading straight this way, but, the trough/front arrived just in time, and, it veered north-northwestward - I probably wouldn't be sitting here if it had come straight across (I might be in Indiana or Iowa, but, not here)...

Frank

but with Floyd the models were showing the bend to the Carolinas or at least a deflection away from SE Florida by this time...and I don't recall seeing the agreement I see with Ike.....

I hope you are right Frank

[Bocadude85]

we all know the models will change my guess is back to the east with the 18z model runs

[AtlanticWind]

we all know the models will change my guess is back to the east with the 18z model runs

Sure they could they also could go further west , But what are reasons you think they will change?