ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[miamijaaz]

Latest HWRF takes the NHC office in MIami out of commission

They made it through Andrew(without missing an advisory) and have an even stronger office now.

But not before their wind meter on the building in front of UM registered a 164 mph wind gust before being knocked out of commission.

[Meso]

I saved an image from earlier this morning cause I had a feeling the models would do this... here is a comparison of the models from this morning to now.

EARLIER TODAY



LATEST IMAGE

[gatorcane]

I'd say there is good consensus on a SE FL hit with the latest guidance envelope...at the moment.

Note it may change down the road though but now is a good time to review hurricane preparation plans if you live in Florida especially Southern FL -- even if Ike does not hit.

[rtd2]

I understood the NHC building was built for Cat 4-5 winds? I think that wiki article might be innaccurate? I don't have time to double check.

I believe those walls are 10" thick pours and would be fine in cat 5 winds...I was concerend about the water (non issue according to others) I thought the numbers in wiki article seemed low

[ronjon]

12Z Euro into the GOM heading for La.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090412!!!step/

[miamijaaz]

I'd say there is good consensus on a SE FL hit with the latest guidance envelope...at the moment.

Note it may change down the road though.

The question is, does the NHC purposefully slow down Ike again or sound the first alarm. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yeah the latest model consensus would not be a good scenario for South Fla Gatorcane.

[GeneratorPower]

The NHC isn't going to slow it down unless there is a lack of agreement between the models.

[gatorcane]

I'd say there is good consensus on a SE FL hit with the latest guidance envelope...at the moment.

Note it may change down the road though.

The question is, does the NHC purposefully slow down Ike again or sound the first alarm. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

No my prediction is the 5 day forecast point will be just offshore SE FL....maybe by about 25-50 miles...nudged a bit SW of the current forecast point but not much.

They probably won't mention Southern FLorida in the discussion quite yet though...NHC is going to want to see a few more model runs to solidify the trends.

Personally I'm not quite sold on Southern FL just yet....

[bucman1]

Where would it go after hitting S. Fla ?

[Sanibel]

Current trend puts it in Gulf.


Blend of GFDL, HWRF, and NHC track are bad for Florida.

[ktulu909]

12Z Euro into the GOM heading for La.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090412!!!step/

Thats the same Euro that had Gustav roaring on as a Cat 4 or 5 and had Hannah hot on its trail to finish off New Orleans.I have a hard enough time trusting any model from 5 days out,I dont think Ill put alot into a model that is 10 days out.

[sweetpea]

Current trend puts it in Gulf.

Not what I wanted to see. Hopefully this will all change and stay off the coast of FL. My husband just called me to find out what is going on, he is a construction manager and they are starting to decide what they may have to do with some of the projects they have going on here.

[gatorcane]

I wonder if Wxman is still calling for a recurve east of the Bahamas...and well east of Florida given the latest model trends?

I haven't seen him on the board much today.

[AtlanticWind]

I wonder if Wxman is still calling for a recurve east of the Bahamas...and well east of Florida given the latest model trends?

I haven't seen him on the board much today.

I dont blame him , I was leaning on a recurve before fla now today that seems less likely

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO was the 1st to send it up EC and the 1st back to GOM....I am a EURO guy and I must admit it hasn't been the best this season.

[AtlanticWind]

EURO was the 1st to send it up EC and the 1st back to GOM....I am a EURO guy and I must admit it hasn't been the best this season.

Yeah , the next Euro might target South America

[Vortex]

the key is the trends with all the guidance this afternoon are west.

[Wx_Warrior]

Sanibel...Please enlighten me with the latest trend.

[CronkPSU]

I saved an image from earlier this morning cause I had a feeling the models would do this... here is a comparison of the models from this morning to now.

EARLIER TODAY



LATEST IMAGE

can you keep a running track of these for us and post them every so often...i find it very useful