ATL: IKE Discussion

[NOLA 30N90W]

I do not believe Hanna will become strong enough, to help erode the ridge. Ike's current intensity and forecast intensity, will allow the ridge to become stronger, overall forcing Ike generally westward, with some wnw/w/wsw/wnw movement. In the end, if you plot out a straight line of his projected path, he ends up just off the SE coast of Florida, regardless of his intermediate plots. With this said, and the ridge building in over the top, I can see where Ike ends up over the western side of the Florida peninsula, moving NW/N/NE.

Just my opinon. Not an official forecast.

[KWT]

To be fair every single model has the WSW motion happening, its just to what extent and how long it lasts that is in major disagreement.

Sanibel yeah I'm starting to think it may bve strengthening just a little bit again, not sure its all that much but maybe upto 125kts based on the Dvorak estimates of 6.4.

[divanicki75]

"Maybe Dr. Williams has similar thoughts as Derek regarding track evolution. He has the doctorate so he must have some scientific reasoning."

exactly, so let the good doctor BRING IT, we can benefit from his insight maybe...i was told yesterday by another board member he doesnt post his thoughts, only his meterology class and some others get it, kind of like the fsu superensemble, lovely isnt it considering tax dollars but thats a whole other subject so lets stay on topic

Keep in mind that he's a professor with his own research, teaching classes, and is the director of USA's meteorology program - he's got a lot on his plate, and likely doesn't have time to offer much more than his general thoughts on it.[/quote]

O/T He wrote an excellent article on Katrina have a DOUBLE eyewall....Interesting and the first I had heard of with Katrina... Dr. Bill is highly regarded around this area

http://www.southalabama.edu/publicrelat ... 1707b.html

This link isn't to a Dr. Williams or a Dr. Bill. It's to a Dr. Keith Blackwell. I'm going to google Dr. Williams. Does anyone have a first name for him?

[gboudx]

I posted this on the Hanna Recon Discussion thread, since there isn't a thread for Ike yet. Can someone clarify that time information displayed in A, C and E.


2. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43 DEPART AT 05/0800A FOR A
RESEARCH MISSION 0109A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A IKE
C. 05/1530Z
D. 24.0N 62.6W
E. 05/1700Z TO 05/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

18z is 2pm ET, that is the scheduled center fix.

1530z is 11:30am ET, that is when the plane is scheduled to takeoff and head for the storm.

E is the amount of the time the plane will be in the storm(1pm to 5pm ET).

Thanks Brent.

[Sabanic]

I grew up across the street from Dr. Blackwell, and he works side by side with Dr. Williams

[r_u_stuck2]

The company I worked for before I retired subscribed to a service from him. He will phone in and personally give he plant manager his perspective.


http://www.usouthal.edu/cwrc/stfbill.html

"Maybe Dr. Williams has similar thoughts as Derek regarding track evolution. He has the doctorate so he must have some scientific reasoning."

exactly, so let the good doctor BRING IT, we can benefit from his insight maybe...i was told yesterday by another board member he doesnt post his thoughts, only his meterology class and some others get it, kind of like the fsu superensemble, lovely isnt it considering tax dollars but thats a whole other subject so lets stay on topic

Keep in mind that he's a professor with his own research, teaching classes, and is the director of USA's meteorology program - he's got a lot on his plate, and likely doesn't have time to offer much more than his general thoughts on it.

O/T He wrote an excellent article on Katrina have a DOUBLE eyewall....Interesting and the first I had heard of with Katrina... Dr. Bill is highly regarded around this area

http://www.southalabama.edu/publicrelat ... 1707b.html

This link isn't to a Dr. Williams or a Dr. Bill. It's to a Dr. Keith Blackwell. I'm going to google Dr. Williams. Does anyone have a first name for him?[/quote]

[KWT]

I'm noticing the northern part of Ike is getting flatter now as well W-E, this may be a sign that Ike is about to bend to the west over the next 6-12hrs, eye clouding over a touch again it seems as well...

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 7.2.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  04 SEP 2008    Time :   154500 UTC
      Lat :   23:17:59 N     Lon :   56:59:21 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.4 / 937.9mb/124.6kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
             (3hr avg)               
                6.4     6.1     6.1

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.3mb

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

 Center Temp : -14.4C    Cloud Region Temp : -67.4C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC     
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF 

[KWT]

Cycloneye, raw T numbers now going back down again I note, so the NHC probably will hold at 120kts instead come next advisory, the eye has started to cloud over a fair bit this timefrom the top it seems.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami snippet on Ike:

EXTENDED FORECAST...

SUNDAY INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALL DEPEND ON MAJOR HURRICANE
IKE LOCATION THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS. AT
THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING MAJOR
HURRICANE IKE TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND BE NEAR THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS ON MAJOR HURRICANE IKE FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[gatorcane]

Latest:

[SapphireSea]

It's been a while, but I notice that Ike may have outraced the ridge and is on the South Western Periphery. I think that at last a more northernly component to his track in the initial is likely. I believe that the ridge steering Ike has actually ceased building and has actually retreated, although if a pro could analyze that and confirm i'd feel better. I'm not sure if anyone is seeing this, but I am.

[gatorcane]

It's been a while, but I notice that Ike may have outraced the ridge and is on the South Western Periphery. I think that at last a more northernly component to his track in the initial is likely. I believe that the ridge steering Ike has actually ceased building and has actually retreated, although if a pro could analyze that and confirm i'd feel better. I'm not sure if anyone is seeing this, but I am.

doubtful, the ridge is expanding westward with Ike and models are in excellent agreement on a WSW turn as a building Bermuda High expands across the Western Atlantic, the amplitude varying between the various dynamic models in the consensus.

In other words its WNW movement should be ending in the next 24 hours or so followed by a bend to the left.

[Blown Away]

I'm a big believer in the Hebert Box for SFL (20N/60W), Andrew is an exception and he barely missed this box. Ike will be in a league all his own if he makes it to SFL. Andrew made it to a much higher latitude than Ike will before hitting SFL. I'm betting on Paul Hebert's theory!!

[tpr1967]

Guys there forecasting a mid level ridge to form nw of Ike. This is the reason he is slowing
today. But once under the ridge he should increase his forward speed.

FRM NHC.
IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AT ABOUT 290/14...A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-
SOUTHWEST SEEMS PROBABLE AS A HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST OF
IKE. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR FIRST
PART OF THIS FORECAST WITH THE MODELS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT. THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT INTO TWO GENERAL CAMPS THIS
MORNING. THE UKMET/GFS/HWRF ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE
LATITUDE INITIALLY...THEN SHOW LESS OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...
COMPRISED OF THE NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN/GFDL...SHOW A FASTER TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SUGGEST MORE OF A THREAT TO THE
BAHAMAS. WITH CREDIBLE MODELS IN EACH GROUP...IT IS PROBABLY BEST
TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR A
BIAS-CORRECTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

[sfwx]

I'm a big believer in the Hebert Box for SFL (20N/60W), Andrew is an exception and he barely missed this box. Ike will be in a league all his own if he makes it to SFL. Andrew made it to a much higher latitude than Ike will before hitting SFL. I'm betting on Paul Hebert's theory!!

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[Philly12]

I'm a big believer in the Hebert Box for SFL (20N/60W), Andrew is an exception and he barely missed this box. Ike will be in a league all his own if he makes it to SFL. Andrew made it to a much higher latitude than Ike will before hitting SFL. I'm betting on Paul Hebert's theory!!

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

If I understand the Hebert Box theory correctly it is not a predictive tool to determine weather or not a storm will hit SFL. The logic of the theory intuitavely works backwards in that it states that most major canes that have struck SFL came thru the box. It does not state that most majors that come thru the box strike SFL.

[Evil Jeremy]

New UKMET is in, no recurve, and right off of the SE FL coast at the end of the run, looks like near Palm Beach and Broward counties. This with the new GFS and GFDL is worrying me.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_09.gif

[gatorcane]

New UKMET is in, no recurve, and right off of the SE FL coast at the end of the run, looks like near Palm Beach and Broward counties. This with the new GFS and GFDL is worrying me.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_09.gif

Okay Folks the consensus is gradually becoming better with the 12Z guidance although divergence still exists.....if you haven't noticed and not good news from Southern Florida still.

I think the NHC nudges the track slightly south at the 5pm EST advisory and extends the forecast point farther west....giving respect to the GFDL and UKMET following closely to the ECMWF guidance.

[KWT]

doubtful, the ridge is expanding westward with Ike and models are in excellent agreement on a WSW turn as a building Bermuda High expands across the Western Atlantic, the amplitude varying between the various dynamic models in the consensus.

In other words its WNW movement should be ending in the next 24 hours or so followed by a bend to the left.

Indeed that WSW should occur soon enough but we shall have to wait and see, indeed the northern quadrant of Ike is looking a little flatter then it was about 12hrs ago which is a sure sign the system is soon going to be steered by the building ridge to the west.