ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS running, loses Ike completely at 42 hours

It's out to lunch again:

[HURAKAN]

Another run to throw to the garbage. Maybe when the RECON information is incorporated tomorrow, the GFS would do a better job!

[tpr1967]

The 00Z/04 run of the ECMWF(euro)takes Ike thru the Bahamas Nw thru the straits and thru
middle and upper keys then north near Lake O. Here's Link.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[gatorcane]

Another run to throw to the garbage. Maybe when the RECON information is incorporated tomorrow, the GFS would do a better job!

well the GFS solution of a recurve NE of Bahamas....can be tossed.

I'm leaning on the ECMWF solution more with a more west track.

[Frank2]

True, but, since today's is Thursday, sometimes the NHC will mention something that relates to a Monday time frame, just to make everyone aware that over the weekend they need to keep an eye open...

But, since they haven't, it's perhaps because their confidence is low in it coming this far west...

[tpr1967]

Well the Euro has a Donna type track but further east. Gatorcane.

[Frank2]

...people here at work have been getting hyper when it comes to asking me if "Ike is coming this way"...

They're buggin' me, man...

At least that's what they used to say...

LOL

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Don't discount all value in the GFS at the moment. In fact, it may be better to look at what it shows.

Ignore the fact that Ike isn't plotted. We know where it is.

The thing to do, which is always the best to do with the GFS, is to look at the synoptic setup around Ike that it tries to predict. Look at what it does with the ridges and troughs/fronts. That is extremely telling as to where Ike *could* potentially go or not.

Does the ridge rapidly build in to the west? Is a weakness developing in Hanna's wake? This is the kind of synoptic info that goes into other models to digest anyway.

In fact, without that big scary Ike in the middle of the model, it is easier to concentrate on exactly where the ridge will be and how strong at different times.

A slower or faster Ike will let you gage where it will be in relation to the synoptic setup later.

[gatorcane]

True, but, since today's is Thursday, sometimes the NHC will mention something that relates to a Monday time frame, just to make everyone aware that over the weekend they need to keep an eye open...

But, since they haven't, it's perhaps because their confidence is low in it coming this far west...

Frank we are within a few advisories of the NHC mentioning South Florida (or Florida) or not. I'm sure they want to build confidence first. Given Ike's speed the NHC will be forced to actually move the 5 day point more then they have been in the past several cones.

Given the garbage GFS runs lately -- the NHC may lean more towards the European solution the ECMWF which bring Ike further west.

[Frank2]

Sure, though it'll probably be just precautionary wording at this point...

[jlauderdal]

The 00Z/04 run of the ECMWF(euro)takes Ike thru the Bahamas Nw thru the straits and thru
middle and upper keys then north near Lake O. Here's Link.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

that would inflict a great deal of pain on a great amount of people assuming its a major with a decent wind field

[jhpigott]

The 00Z/04 run of the ECMWF(euro)takes Ike thru the Bahamas Nw thru the straits and thru
middle and upper keys then north near Lake O. Here's Link.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

that would inflict a great deal of pain on a great amount of people assuming its a major with a decent wind field

yea, that would put the entire Mia-FtLaud-WPB corridor in the right front quadrent of a major . . . not good

[KWT]

Problem with this is you can't ignore the simple fact the GFS loses Ike...because in this set-up a weak storm barely loses any latitude, a powerful hurricane could lose 2-3 degrees which may make a big differece down the road as a system may be that bit easier to pick up at 25N than 22/23N, as well as that a system at 25N is already at the same latitude as Miami and therefore when it does lift out is less risk of recurivng up the east coast...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The 00Z/04 run of the ECMWF(euro)takes Ike thru the Bahamas Nw thru the straits and thru
middle and upper keys then north near Lake O. Here's Link.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

that would inflict a great deal of pain on a great amount of people assuming its a major with a decent wind field

yea, that would put the entire Mia-FtLaud-WPB corridor in the right front quadrent of a major . . . not good

And scare the poop out of west coast floridians too! -especially with deep diving fronts in the arena!

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS resurrects Ike again and he is back at 72 hours

[tpr1967]

Yeah my sisters live on the east coast.one in jupiter,one in coconut creek and the other
in hollywood. I live on the west coast. They would feel the worst of it not good. But it is a
6 to 7 days out anything can change.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Problem with this is you can't ignore the simple fact the GFS loses Ike...because in this set-up a weak storm barely loses any latitude, a powerful hurricane could lose 2-3 degrees which may make a big differece down the road as a system may be that bit easier to pick up at 25N than 22/23N, as well as that a system at 25N is already at the same latitude as Miami and therefore when it does lift out is less risk of recurivng up the east coast...

I agree, but the GFS is just one of the many models. All alone, it doesn't give enough info without the storm plotted. But then we can rely on the others for that stuff. The big thing it does help do, and generally does a good job with, is predicting the future location of the ridge and its strength.

Of course, we always see that ridges are under done... but the GFS generally does a little better than most of the other models with predicting them.

And the ridge strength and location in this case is going to be the biggest factor in where Ike ends up IMHO.

[KWT]

Note by the time the GFS sees it again the WSW plunge is finishing which means the GFS effectivly misses the boat with the WSW and instead strengthens it after the flow eases back to a westerly again...the GFS is out to launch until it sorts that massive issue out...

[artist]

recurves out to sea expect a track shift away from fla at 5am

we won't have really good model runs until the next 0z model run. The latest gfs 0z did not have the new strength in it and the other models are also based upon it and the 6z and 18z are run off the 0z so we are sort of flying in the wind at this point. At least this was my understanding last night.

[Bgator]

12z GFS even though it loses Ike at first takes a much farther dip south through 84 hours. Into the bahamas.