ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Still hard call to make, the NHC are doing a compramise between the models and is probably closest to the HWRF but who knows what will happen in the future, its only a consensus of the models and some models are much to the right and some, like the ECM, are to the left of the NHC forecast.

Ike still showing awesome presentation, I doubt this weakens much in the next 12-24hrs anyway unless the shear increases, which is possible.

[cpdaman]

Wxman57 was right the models keep on shifting right. S FL might be in the clear with Ike after all if it turns NNW in the Bahamas.Other than Fay we are dodging Hanna, now maybe Ike.

Just woke up. Here are the 6Z models. Shift east continues:

hopefully it continues, i dont like a cane coming in heading sw and then its going to make this turn..50 miles farther south or west or a combo and watch out, it would be alot a better for us if it was a 270 or 280 heading and then we depended on the turn, model watching continues

jlauderdal i think you make a good point here, the storms i remember curving to our east usually come in at west or wnw headings then gradually turn, wether that means anything (other than i haven't been around long enough to see then head at us SW or WSW and recurve) is the question

[HURAKAN]

Just to show how bad the GFS is doing on Ike. There you can see clearly Hanna near the Carolinas and Josephine in the central Atlantic, good luck trying to find a low pressure center for Ike.

[tolakram]

[KWT]

Should be noted that nearly every model that is handling Ike's ciurrent strength well has a Bahamas hit at the moment, the NHC forecast of a top end 3/4 possibly hitting the islands with the northern quadrant would be the worst hit since Floyd, could even be *nearly* as bad as Andrew if its in a strengthening phase at the time though I doubt it quite becomes that powerful.

[NFLnut]

It seems Accuweather post's graphics like this to get attention. IMO, they are losing credibility with the cones flip flopping all over the place. It's entertaining for me but you would think they would be a little more subtle, like the NHC when they change their tracks. At least the TWC posts a cone that is usually different than the NHC and sticks with it until the consensus is certain. Geesh

that accuwx graphic seems completely reasonable to me as would one curving it out to sea, more time needed for consensus

That red line seems a little sloppy to me. Although the cone is obvious, they just haphazardly drew the red line which appears left of center.

[robbielyn]

That looks like a noose for ike to hang himself lol

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: gtalum, that should crank up the ACE for the season.

For all the information about the every 6 hours updated ACE numbers for the Atlantic 2008 season,the members can go to the thread in the Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101997&p=1809943#p1809943

I think Ike will get more ACE numbers than Bertha,that was 28.

[KWT]

Ike looking good still, eye has opened back up after being a little clouded over, I wouldn't be surprised if its actually slightly strengthening again.

[NFLnut]

Did the NHC shift the forecast east or west at all on the 11am? I can't tell.

[gatorcane]

Did the NHC shift the forecast east or west at all on the 11am? I can't tell.

further west slightly at the end:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[Blown Away]

I love when these big canes catch a ride below the ridge and accelerate across the open Atlantic. Ike is flying rate now, so much better than the stalling land loving storms we have been watching, except for Gus when he was in the Gulf. Ike is one cool dude rate now!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[NFLnut]

Did the NHC shift the forecast east or west at all on the 11am? I can't tell.

further west slightly at the end:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

NO!!!

[Sanibel]

further west slightly at the end:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

This looks like a flattening out with and more west moving ridge that corrects back towards Florida. If the next one goes more west...

[robbielyn]

I know fl is in the cone but where the last ts icon is pointing, it would have to take a sharp left turn to hit the coast. this looks more like a nfl or georgia hit or even a sc hit looks like the ts icon is pointing nw direction

NHC shifted the track slightly left at this advisory.

I don't follow your logic at all. As the track stands now SE Florida is very much at risk, although we know the track will go through more changes with time.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

If you compare derek ortts track to nhc track, you would follow my logic. dereks is slightly left of the nhc or south of it if you will that takes ike into s fl. but nhc is more ne than that recurving it more to the north a brush with the fl coast maybe but not landfalling there may just ride the coast all the way up the carolinas and out to sea. nhc 5 day cone doesn't have it landfalling here thats for sure. and yes i am talking about the middle line for right now if it were 100% correct, it would landfall in c or s fl. but yes it can and probably will change

[gatorcane]

further west slightly at the end:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

This looks like a flattening out with and more west moving ridge that corrects back towards Florida. If the next one goes more west...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

still thinking that Ike recurves East of Florida though...

I *hope*.

[MGC]

Would not be surprised if Ike followed Hanna's weakness just like Gustav followed Fay's weakness. I'm just wondering if South Florida will get off lucky this time like they did with Floyd......MGC

[gatorcane]

Would not be surprised if Ike followed Hanna's weakness just like Gustav followed Fay's weakness. I'm just wondering if South Florida will get off lucky this time like they did with Floyd......MGC

Hanna is alot weaker than originally progged by the models so I don't think the weakness will be enough...

the forecast hinges on how far west the Bermuda High builds.

[bucman1]

If it keeps west-I don't think a Donna scenario is out of the question(not -removed-)

just a gut feeling!

[cpdaman]

Would not be surprised if Ike followed Hanna's weakness just like Gustav followed Fay's weakness. I'm just wondering if South Florida will get off lucky this time like they did with Floyd......MGC

in additon to that ......hanna did a bit of a number on the water temps over the se bahamas

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... /athhp.gif

but unfortunately not on the GS right next to se fl