ATL: IKE Discussion

[HURAKAN]

gtalum, that should crank up the ACE for the season.

[jlauderdal]

It seems Accuweather post's graphics like this to get attention. IMO, they are losing credibility with the cones flip flopping all over the place. It's entertaining for me but you would think they would be a little more subtle, like the NHC when they change their tracks. At least the TWC posts a cone that is usually different than the NHC and sticks with it until the consensus is certain. Geesh

that accuwx graphic seems completely reasonable to me as would one curving it out to sea, more time needed for consensus

[robbielyn]

The new 11 AM NHC cone is about the same place but with lower intensity forecast at the end.

I know fl is in the cone but where the last ts icon is pointing, it would have to take a sharp left turn to hit the coast. this looks more like a nfl or georgia hit or even a sc hit looks like the ts icon is pointing nw direction. I think if it were going to hit the s fl miami dade area the ts icon would have to be to the left more.

[rtd2]

Maybe Dr. Williams has similar thoughts as Derek regarding track evolution. He has the doctorate so he must have some scientific reasoning.

exactly, so let the good doctor BRING IT, we can benefit from his insight maybe...i was told yesterday by another board member he doesnt post his thoughts, only his meterology class and some others get it, kind of like the fsu superensemble, lovely isnt it considering tax dollars but thats a whole other subject so lets stay on topic

Keep in mind that he's a professor with his own research, teaching classes, and is the director of USA's meteorology program - he's got a lot on his plate, and likely doesn't have time to offer much more than his general thoughts on it.

O/T He wrote an excellent article on Katrina have a DOUBLE eyewall....Interesting and the first I had heard of with Katrina... Dr. Bill is highly regarded around this area

http://www.southalabama.edu/publicrelat ... 1707b.html

[gatorcane]

I know fl is in the cone but where the last ts icon is pointing, it would have to take a sharp left turn to hit the coast. this looks more like a nfl or georgia hit or even a sc hit looks like the ts icon is pointing nw direction

NHC shifted the track slightly left at this advisory.

I don't follow your logic at all. As the track stands now SE Florida is very much at risk, although we know the track will go through more changes with time.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[Air Force Met]

It seems Accuweather post's graphics like this to get attention. IMO, they are losing credibility with the cones flip flopping all over the place. It's entertaining for me but you would think they would be a little more subtle, like the NHC when they change their tracks. At least the TWC posts a cone that is usually different than the NHC and sticks with it until the consensus is certain. Geesh

I think TWC is NHC's path, with different formatting.

The middle part of that path might be close, but the Northern end seems to imply a near Westward movement towards the Carolinas, well, seems wrong to this amateur. I am 80% sure this recurves before the Gulf, and the only question for Florida is does it start to recurve too late to miss Florida. If it hits the Carolinas, it will be coming up from generally the South, and the arrow on that implies a Westward heading towards the Carolinas.


If this does get into the Gulf, that 20% uncertainty, I'd say 75% that it crossed Florida on its way to a second mid 90s Erin styel landfall in the Panhandle.

So, in my completely unofficial opinion, there is only about a 5% chance this passes South of mainland Florida.


I think the main target is North Carolina, with a possible second hit into NY/New England, but I wouldn't dare speculate on whether it is a near miss or a direct hit. And this could go 'Donna'; Florida to Carolinas to NY/New England. Or it could be a scare that never makes a US landfall.


BTW, 3 days ago I said a hit between Lake Charles and A'p'cola, centered near MOB, and that was completely wrong, so my skill has been a little lacking. Just another reason to listen to the pro mets, NHC and local mets, before taking what I say too seriously

That's what I was saying yesterday. TWC track is the exact same as the TPC. The map projection is different butthe cone is the same...track...everything.

And for those of you taking a swipe at Accuweather: You seem to forget the times they hit it and the TPC misses it. I am seeing mocking of the accuweather forecast...even though its almost identical to the TPC track.

A little sanity please. Models change. Tracks change. Some of us change our tracks when we see something that warrents it...the TPC gradually does it...which works sometimes...and then when you are dealing with a Katrina instance...doesn't work real good. Derek's track has changed...and will continue to change. Nobody with any sanity hopes it verifies...so no need to post that you don't. My track has changed from when Ike was a baby (thought it was a GOMER)...and I am sure it will change again. That is what tracks do. The TPC does it all the time. So...lay off of Accuweather...especially when their track looks like the TPC's...even down to the intensity. At least someof us were calling for a big hit with Gus over Cuba....and it wasn't TPC.

This isn't an exact science...and nobody is perfect.

[cpdaman]

i'm not sure if this has been touched on

but hanna's speed was adjusted a bit slower

would this have much effect on ike's path or intensity (more shear?) and (i.e hanna weakness hanging around longer)

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

IKE = Intense Kinetic Energy

[RainWind]

What is the long range forecast for Ike? Is it going into the Gulf or up the east coast? Have not had access to ANYTHING for days. So, wut's happenin'? RW

[curtadams]

The globals really do NOT think this will make it to FL. They wait until it's almost there, but recurve it hard. What's the basis of the NHC hurricane winds probability chart? It has a different opinion with a "best track" obviously going to Central FL.

[gatorcane]

The globals really do NOT think this will make it to FL. They wait until it's almost there, but recurve it hard. What's the basis of the NHC hurricane winds probability chart? It has a different opinion with a "best track" obviously going to Central FL.

Florida is very much a threat at this time including South Florida.

See Derek Ortt's forecast also.

not to mention the NHC cone shifted left slighty for the 11Am advisory. The NHC is seeing something in my opinion.

[hazmat]

curtadams...I think that's because the curve will be too close to call....reminds me some of Jeanne...kept waiting for the curve as she approached the coast..got spanked pretty hard here inland before she turned.
Mods...info is important now. Can a seperate thread for all things JB be started ?

[CajunMama]

Let's turn the talk away from accuweather and back to ike please.

[Storm Contractor]

It seems Accuweather post's graphics like this to get attention. IMO, they are losing credibility with the cones flip flopping all over the place. It's entertaining for me but you would think they would be a little more subtle, like the NHC when they change their tracks. At least the TWC posts a cone that is usually different than the NHC and sticks with it until the consensus is certain. Geesh

I would have to agree with you BA! NASA is moving the shuttle to the launch pad as we speak. I would think that if this were a serious threat to the space coast (as that graphic you posted would implicate) they would not be dragging the shuttle to it's pad! It would seem that the Met's at NASA are thinking with some certainty either recurve away from Fl or a track well to the south of the cape!

[cpdaman]

THANK YOU robbielyn

that was said perfectly

i think hanna lack of speed may bump ike a bit further north

[sittingduck]

It seems Accuweather post's graphics like this to get attention. IMO, they are losing credibility with the cones flip flopping all over the place. It's entertaining for me but you would think they would be a little more subtle, like the NHC when they change their tracks. At least the TWC posts a cone that is usually different than the NHC and sticks with it until the consensus is certain. Geesh

I would have to agree with you BA! NASA is moving the shuttle to the launch pad as we speak. I would think that if this were a serious threat to the space coast (as that graphic you posted would implicate) they would not be dragging the shuttle to it's pad! It would seem that the Met's at NASA are thinking with some certainty either recurve away from Fl or a track well to the south of the cape!

I am glad you brought that up - I was thinking that same thing this morning when I heard on the news that they were moving it out today. The luanch is scheduled for October, I know that it takes time to prepare - but I would think that if they had a reasonable expectation of danger - they wouldn't move it out now. Although - I have no idea how long it takes to put it back. I just found that curious this morning.

[punkyg]

can some one show me the shear map. i want to see how high the shear has gotten.

[Trader Ron]

Latest track takes it right over Cat and Eleuthera Island, as a Cat 4.

Let's hope it doesn't verify.

[robbielyn]

It seems Accuweather post's graphics like this to get attention. IMO, they are losing credibility with the cones flip flopping all over the place. It's entertaining for me but you would think they would be a little more subtle, like the NHC when they change their tracks. At least the TWC posts a cone that is usually different than the NHC and sticks with it until the consensus is certain. Geesh

I would have to agree with you BA! NASA is moving the shuttle to the launch pad as we speak. I would think that if this were a serious threat to the space coast (as that graphic you posted would implicate) they would not be dragging the shuttle to it's pad! It would seem that the Met's at NASA are thinking with some certainty either recurve away from Fl or a track well to the south of the cape!

I am glad you brought that up - I was thinking that same thing this morning when I heard on the news that they were moving it out today. The luanch is scheduled for October, I know that it takes time to prepare - but I would think that if they had a reasonable expectation of danger - they wouldn't move it out now. Although - I have no idea how long it takes to put it back. I just found that curious this morning.

Is it possible they are moving it due to hanna? They will get some winds from this just wondering thats all. Sorry i misread they are moving it to the pad not away from it sorry need my second cup of coffee i think lol