ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[KWT]

Extrap of GFDL sanibel is a Florida hit...thats a pure extrap but in truth its probably curving to the north at that time.

I still wouldn't be all that surprised if this pulls a Floyd but we have to wait and see...

[robbielyn]

Sure, that's me - eventually it'll come true - even if it is January...

LOL

Well you were spot on for last year. CV train abruptly ended and the gom and carribean did nothing. But this year is different although after these few systems clear the area hopefully it will be over. It has been an exhausting year following these things especially Fay. And hanna montana doing her loop de loops sounds like a typical teenager. Now she looks all ditsy. Ike I am watching closely. Have a feeling about this one all the other ones didn't phase me although i don't think it will make it into the gom. I am concerned about the se coast especially miami. Do you think we'll have a home brew this year? I am wondering cause gom has been too quiet.

[Sanibel]

I don't mean the straight EXTRAP line, I mean an interpolation of the movement of GFDL at the very end of the run along with the weak synoptic above it. Many people are saying "NOGAPS hits south Florida". Look at the run again, it recurves just in front and misses IMO.

Extrap of GFDL sanibel is a Florida hit...thats a pure extrap but in truth its probably curving to the north at that time.

We are saying the same thing.

[KWT]

Yeah agreed mind you if you've got as major hurricane a hurricane as close as Nogaps suggests would still be a very dangerous hurricane...like a stronger David?

[Frank2]

robbielyn,

Thanks - let's hope that Gustav was the Gulf's one big system, since there are indications that the Fall season will arrive early this year, and, that would pretty much end the season over there...

Others have mentioned Floyd (1999), too - talk about stress - it seemed everyone down here was absolutely crazy in the day or two before Cat 5 Floyd turned away from South Florida - with less than 300 miles to spare...

I'm not exaggerating when I say that the streets and stores were empty for almost a week after Floyd turned north - everyone was so stressed out that we needed the time to stay home and recuperate...

I remember standing at a local rental car counter to rent a vehicle a day or two before Floyd turned, when, a guy who looked really tough walked in to also rent a car, but, he sounded really scared, and, said he just wanted to rent a car and leave town - tatoos don't count for anything at moments like that...

Frank

[AtlanticWind]

I don't mean the straight EXTRAP line, I mean an interpolation of the movement of GFDL at the very end of the run along with the weak synoptic above it. Many people are saying "NOGAPS hits south Florida". Look at the run again, it recurves just in front and misses IMO.

Extrap of GFDL sanibel is a Florida hit...thats a pure extrap but in truth its probably curving to the north at that time.

We are saying the same thing.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008090406

Look at he NOGAPS run on the navy site . It does make landfall in south fla.

[robbielyn]

robbielyn,

Thanks - let's hope that Gustav was the Gulf's one big system, since there are indications that the Fall season will arrive early this year, and, that would pretty much end the season over there...

I don't count gustav not a home brew. that's what i mean about the gom being quiet.

[Frank2]

I don't know, but, it seems everthing this year has originated from outside the region, so...

[Ed Mahmoud]

robbielyn,

Thanks - let's hope that Gustav was the Gulf's one big system, since there are indications that the Fall season will arrive early this year, and, that would pretty much end the season over there...

Others have mentioned Floyd (1999), too - talk about stress - it seemed everyone down here was absolutely crazy in the day or two before Cat 5 Floyd turned away from South Florida - with less than 300 miles to spare...

I'm not exaggerating when I say that the streets and stores were empty for almost a week after Floyd turned north - everyone was so stressed out that we needed the time to stay home and recuperate...

I remember standing at a local rental car counter to rent a vehicle a day or two before Floyd turned, when, a guy who looked really tough walked in to also rent a car, but, he sounded really scared, and, said he just wanted to rent a car and leave town - tatoos don't count for anything at moments like that...

Frank

Autumn doesn't mean season over for the Gulf, just the Western part of the Gulf, systems can still come North out of the Caribbean or Bay of Campeche and hit the Northern Gulf, or start bending East and hit the Northeastern Gulf or Florida.

I do, unofficially, think it is season over for Texas. But that isn't official.


But it certainly isn't too late, even with an Autumn pattern (early Autumn, I know, because the Texas crew is going to ask where are the 60ºF lows at night), for a Lili or Wilma storm.

Long range Canadian looks a lot like Gloria.



I don't think there is too much doubt this starts curving before Florida, but will it start the curve soon enough to spare Florida, and will it recurve enough to avoid Hatteras and Long Island/Cape Cod on its way out? I don't think we can come close to confidently declaring Florida or anywhere else on the East Coast in the clear.

[Frank2]

I agree - I just wish the earlier poster here who mentioned "a Dade County landfall" would not post something like that, since it's counter-productive, if nothing else...

That'd be like my standing 100 feet from a dart board and saying that I'll hit one tiny speck on the board - about the same chance as my winning the lottery (and I don't buy tickets), so...

The reality is that it's a good chance that Ike will recurve - even the TCD only mentions that "those in the Bahamas should monitor Ike" - Florida not having been mentioned at all, so, hopefully we can all wave at it as it swings past Florida and out to sea...

[HURAKAN]

They don't mention Florida or anyone in the SEUS because it's too early and not because they think a landfall is not likely. They do mention the Bahamas because most models show that the Bahamas will be impacted and they are first in line.

[HURAKAN]

A question, when is that the trough makes its appearance?

[gatorcane]

I agree - I just wish the earlier poster here who mentioned "a Dade County landfall" would not post something like that, since it's counter-productive, if nothing else...

That'd be like my standing 100 feet from a dart board and saying that I'll hit one tiny speck on the board - about the same chance as my winning the lottery (and I don't buy tickets), so...

The reality is that it's a good chance that Ike will recurve - even the TCD only mentions that "those in the Bahamas should monitor Ike" - Florida not having been mentioned at all, so, hopefully we can all wave at it as it swings past Florida and out to sea...

hopefully but Florida is just outside the 5 day cone still....so that is why they may not be mentioning us yet.

[HURAKAN]

hopefully but Florida is just outside the 5 day cone still....so that is why they may not be mentioning us yet.

Outside the three day cone, not the 5 day cone.

[Frank2]

Still, the curve in the track looks similar to the present Hanna track as far as Florida is concerned...

[KWT]

The 12z models will soon be starting to come through, these will be very key I feel...

[gatorcane]

Still, the curve in the track looks similar to the present Hanna track as far as Florida is concerned...

Frank not really, Ike would be substantially farther west.....based on current guidance.

[Derek Ortt]

I agree - I just wish the earlier poster here who mentioned "a Dade County landfall" would not post something like that, since it's counter-productive, if nothing else...

That'd be like my standing 100 feet from a dart board and saying that I'll hit one tiny speck on the board - about the same chance as my winning the lottery (and I don't buy tickets), so...

The reality is that it's a good chance that Ike will recurve - even the TCD only mentions that "those in the Bahamas should monitor Ike" - Florida not having been mentioned at all, so, hopefully we can all wave at it as it swings past Florida and out to sea...

that's because its more than 5 days away

[gatorcane]

I agree - I just wish the earlier poster here who mentioned "a Dade County landfall" would not post something like that, since it's counter-productive, if nothing else...

That'd be like my standing 100 feet from a dart board and saying that I'll hit one tiny speck on the board - about the same chance as my winning the lottery (and I don't buy tickets), so...

The reality is that it's a good chance that Ike will recurve - even the TCD only mentions that "those in the Bahamas should monitor Ike" - Florida not having been mentioned at all, so, hopefully we can all wave at it as it swings past Florida and out to sea...

that's because its more than 5 days away

that's precisely what I said....I love Frank's optimism though

[LowndesCoFire]

What is with the 00 CMC having Ike dive under FL and even Cuba?

Also, where can you find the latest model updates?