2008 Cyclones Retirement

[Derek Ortt]

none of the Atlantic storms stand a greater than 1% chance of retirement

[HurricaneRobert]

none of the Atlantic storms stand a greater than 1% chance of retirement

Didn't you say something similar about Dean and Noel? Anyway, the name Dolly replaced - Diana - was retired for much less. All this means is that if a country requests it, it will probably be removed from the list.

[Cyclone1]

I agree with Derek... chances of a retirement from the 3 we've seen so far are incredibly low.

[Squarethecircle]

If the damage reports on Dolly are lower than 1 billion (which is pretty likely), then it really doesn't stand a chance at all (or rather, it does, because it'll come back in 2014).

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

none of the Atlantic storms stand a greater than 1% chance of retirement

Didn't you say something similar about Dean and Noel? Anyway, the name Dolly replaced - Diana - was retired for much less. All this means is that if a country requests it, it will probably be removed from the list.

According to Wikipedia (not the world's best source, but probably generally reliable on something like this) Hurricane Diana was responsible for 139 deaths in Mexico with another 56 people missing. I'm sure that's why the Mexican government requested the name's retirement. I don't think casualty figures for Dolly are expected to be anywhere near that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Diana#Impact

[HurricaneRobert]

none of the Atlantic storms stand a greater than 1% chance of retirement

Didn't you say something similar about Dean and Noel? Anyway, the name Dolly replaced - Diana - was retired for much less. All this means is that if a country requests it, it will probably be removed from the list.

According to Wikipedia (not the world's best source, but probably generally reliable on something like this) Hurricane Diana was responsible for 139 deaths in Mexico with another 56 people missing. I'm sure that's why the Mexican government requested the name's retirement. I don't think casualty figures for Dolly are expected to be anywhere near that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Diana#Impact

I meant Dean and Noel for comparison because last season everyone was debating whether those two were worthy of retirement. Sorry that was worded badly. The point is not to put much focus to damage or casualty figures. Klaus is another example of a storm getting retired because a country requested it.

[Derek Ortt]

none of the Atlantic storms stand a greater than 1% chance of retirement

Didn't you say something similar about Dean and Noel? Anyway, the name Dolly replaced - Diana - was retired for much less. All this means is that if a country requests it, it will probably be removed from the list.

I said Dean would probably be retired by France (the only country with a legitimate argument... and it was retired by France)

Noel never should have been. I believe France also requested its retirement (and it did not do anything to France as a TC!)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember Hati don't count

Fay 12%=not likely
Gustav 42%=leaning toward not being retired
Hanna don't really know yet, but going from current info about 8%. Will likely go up...

Watching IKE. Maybe that will top 50%????

Overall
Arthur 1%
Bertha 9%
Christobal 4%
Dolly 31%=not likely retired
Edouard 7% not going to happen
Fay 12%
Gustav 42%, leaning towards no.
Hanna a wait and see....

[HurricaneBill]

Remember Haiti don't count

What do you mean Haiti doesn't count? I know it's rare for Haiti to request a name be retired, but Haiti has just as much say as any other country.

I think Haiti has requested a name be retired at least once. After the 1954 hurricane season, Haiti requested that the name Hazel not be used again.

I think Gustav's retirement is a sure bet. Either the U.S. or Cuba will probably make the request.

[Cyclenall]

Remember Hati don't count

Fay 12%=not likely
Gustav 42%=leaning toward not being retired
Hanna don't really know yet, but going from current info about 8%. Will likely go up...

Watching IKE. Maybe that will top 50%????

Overall
Arthur 1%
Bertha 9%
Christobal 4%
Dolly 31%=not likely retired
Edouard 7% not going to happen
Fay 12%
Gustav 42%, leaning towards no.
Hanna a wait and see....

How can you lean towards no for Gustav? Cuba or the US will certainly retire him. I would put it at 97% for Gustav.

[KWT]

Yeah Cuba will very likely request retirement of this system and also quite possibly the US even if the damage hasn't been as bad as expected...

[Chacor]

Cuba only suffered damage from Gustav and no deaths — any retirement request is unlikely to come from them. Jamaica might have a shout at asking for Gustav to be retired though.

[HurricaneRobert]

The estimate on Dolly is $1.5 billion. Billion dollar storms usually get their names taken off the list.

Fay's numbers could inflate real quickly if it hurt agriculture - especially citrus.

Cuba's government called Gustav the worst storm to hit in 50 years. Why would they not ask for retirement?

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Everyone is just doing a lot of speculation here. (Not that that's bad. )

Just who is it in each country that decides whether or not a request for retirement should be made? Is there generally a committee that decides this? Or is it just one person? In the USA, where does the request come from? The National Hurricane Center? Who at the Center makes the decision? Is the decision completely subjective, or does any country have a set of objective criteria in terms of lives lost or property damage that makes a decision automatic one way or the other?

[Category 5]

Remember Hati don't count

I know you mean that in the "They never request it" category. At least I hope.

Gordon killed over 1000 there and it's still on the list, Gustav did significant damage in Cuba and the Isle of Youth but 0 deaths, aftermath in the U.S doesn't lead me to believe that we'd request it. Overall, I think we'll see Gustav in 2014.

[CrazyC83]

My estimated probabilities per storm so far:

Arthur - 2%
Bertha - 2%
Cristobal - <2%
Dolly - 25%
Edouard - <2%
Fay - 20%
Gustav - 98%
Hanna - 40%
Ike - 90%, may change
Josephine - <2%

[CrazyC83]

The estimate on Dolly is $1.5 billion. Billion dollar storms usually get their names taken off the list.

Fay's numbers could inflate real quickly if it hurt agriculture - especially citrus.

Cuba's government called Gustav the worst storm to hit in 50 years. Why would they not ask for retirement?

Those numbers for Dolly and Fay may be overestimates. I am guessing they will end up back around $500M to $800M for each storm, which in recent years has not been enough for the US to request retirement. No other country has a real case for retiring them either.

[Category 5]

Be careful with these early damage estimates.

Katrina: 81.2 Billion (Early estimate 100-200 Billion)
Ophelia: 70 Million (Early estimate 1.6 Billion)
Humberto: 50 Million (Early estimate 1.5 Billion)

Bottom line, wait for the TCR.

[HurricaneBill]

I know you mean that in the "They never request it" category. At least I hope.

Gordon killed over 1000 there and it's still on the list, Gustav did significant damage in Cuba and the Isle of Youth but 0 deaths, aftermath in the U.S doesn't lead me to believe that we'd request it. Overall, I think we'll see Gustav in 2014.

Even though there were no deaths, Cuba might still request Gustav be retired. I read that Castro said the Isle of Youth looked like somebody dropped an atomic bomb on it.

As for Gordon, if I recall correctly, there was a big political crisis going on in Haiti in late 1994. Gordon probably slipped through the cracks.

[HurricaneRobert]

From what I can tell, Haiti is still quite a lawless country. France may have requested Noel's retirement on their behalf.