ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

I was shocked by the winds mentioned in the 5 a.m discussion. It looks so pathetic and hard to make out much circulation at all. Gustav looked better than this after being over land for a couple of days.

I'm plotting winds around Hanna and have yet to find a 35kt wind much less a 60 kt wind. this is clearly a hybrid low/subtropical system or a very sheared TC with the MLC zipping off to the north leaving behind an exposed swirl and relatively light winds at the surface. You cannot use standard FL-SFC conversions with such a system. it's NOT a 70 mph TS.

[Thunder44]

It starting to look a subtropical storm to me. I wonder if that's what the models are really showing heading up the east coast.

[boca]

On sat it looks like Hanna is moving more WNW than NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Okibeach]

I was shocked by the winds mentioned in the 5 a.m discussion. It looks so pathetic and hard to make out much circulation at all. Gustav looked better than this after being over land for a couple of days.

I'm plotting winds around Hanna and have yet to find a 35kt wind much less a 60 kt wind. this is clearly a hybrid low/subtropical system or a very sheared TC with the MLC zipping off to the north leaving behind an exposed swirl and relatively light winds at the surface. You cannot use standard FL-SFC conversions with such a system. it's NOT a 70 mph TS.

That seems much more logical to me.

[KWT]

Yep it does sort of low like a ST, maybe even a system that is undergoing ET transition already...

This has got to have an impact on Ike's track I'd have thought...

[boca]

Here's Hanna's outer bands on Miami long range.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[KWT]

As for motion, with such a messy system its not easy telling it general direction on anything other then vis, I'd still say NW.

[Marilyn]

Well i am happy she may not be no more than a rain maker for us.We could use the rain here in white oak nc She doesn't look that well on sat.this morning she actually looks messy .. Now Ike I pray for the sake of everyone he can go fish. unlikely but lets pray he does.

Have a Great Day.
Marilyn

[wxman57]

As for motion, with such a messy system its not easy telling it general direction on anything other then vis, I'd still say NW.

Easy to determine in GARP looking a the pinpoint swirl on visible.

1115Z - 24.1N/72.95W
1215Z - 14.3N/73.1W

Movement toward 325 degrees at 13.7 kts

[Sanibel]

Dry-er air got under it and blew it open with the ridge.

[cycloneye]

BEST TRACK at the 12:00 UTC update downgrades the winds to 55kts:

AL, 08, 2008090412, , BEST, 0, 241N, 731W, 55, 989, TS,

[KWT]

55kts?

I'll be very shocked if this currently has winds even close to that, may even be generous saying 40kts at this time!

wxman57, yeah thats about what I'd have estimated.

[Sirius LeWindy]

Hanna haters. Give her time. The NHC is not saying cane until 24 hours . . .

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

[bree4bryce]

So I've been lurking and thought I'd chime in...Historically Hanna hasn't been a morning person

[wxman57]

Here's a current surface plot showing Hanna's exposed LLC clearly. I've gone back 12 hours and cannot find a wind over 30 kts at any of those reporting points that are within the NHC's TS wind field radius. Just can't find a TS force wind, though there could be a few areas of 35-40 kts.

[Bane]

not that i'm complaining, but she definitely had a terrible night.

[KWT]

Yep that sort of confirms that if Hanna is a TS its probably only around 35kts based on those surface estimate.

[capepoint]

If I am reading this correctly, I see a pro-met and several other folks saying Hannah does not really exsist? Thats good because I don't really feel like preparing for a storm today. I think I'll go surfing instead. I live about a mile from the ocean so if Hannah is nothing more than a nor'easter I guess we shouldn't have any problems.

Question....Why are the media and the NHC center still calling this something that you guys say it is not?

Oh well, gonna grab the board and hit the beach. Might check back later to see if anything has changed. Glad to have storm2k to cut thru all the hype!

[xironman]

Most of the stronger winds in recon were in the NW side of the system which unfortunately is not well populated with ground stations.



BTW: All of this is not official information, anyone making a decision should base that on official information

[wxman57]

If I am reading this correctly, I see a pro-met and several other folks saying Hannah does not really exsist? Thats good because I don't really feel like preparing for a storm today. I think I'll go surfing instead. I live about a mile from the ocean so if Hannah is nothing more than a nor'easter I guess we shouldn't have any problems.

Question....Why are the media and the NHC center still calling this something that you guys say it is not?

Oh well, gonna grab the board and hit the beach. Might check back later to see if anything has changed. Glad to have storm2k to cut thru all the hype!

NHC is always VERY SLOW to weaken systems, sometimes waiting 12-24 hours to indicate a system has weakened. They don't want the public to let their guard down in the small chance that Hanna re-strengthens and/or gains a core of squalls prior to landfall. They're playing it cautious on the slight possibility it could become a hurricane. On the other hand, I have to provide our clients with a forecast that is more realistic and represents Hanna's true wind potential at their locations.