ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

Jesus, lets quibble, one's definitely further south (or should I say, closer to my location). I think if you "smoothe" the lines, there is little argument.

There. I smoothed them out. Landfall location the same. 11pm track a little further north in the short term. Red line is 5pm, yellow line is 11pm.

I have a Masters in Business from Wake Forest, but I don't how to, but if I did, I would borrow your crayon and smooth them myself. But as far as I am concerned, for me, my wife, three children, two houses, restaurant (emilysrestaurant.com), for some inane reason, I like the 8pm better.

What you're seeing is the fact that the track reflects the position 12 hours out, then 24, 36, 48, 72, 96 120. The position for 8 PM on Saturday is further south and east than 11 PM on Sunday.

Nice shameless plug BTW (jk)

[skufful]

Jesus, lets quibble, one's definitely further south (or should I say, closer to my location). I think if you "smoothe" the lines, there is little argument.[/quote]


There. I smoothed them out. Landfall location the same. 11pm track a little further north in the short term. Red line is 5pm, yellow line is 11pm.

[/quote]

I have a Masters in Business from Wake Forest, but I don't how to, but if I did, I would borrow your crayon and smooth them myself. But as far as I am concerned, for me, my wife, three children, two houses, restaurant (emilysrestaurant.com), for some inane reason, I like the 8pm better.[/quote]


What you're seeing is the fact that the track reflects the position 12 hours out, then 24, 36, 48, 72, 96 120. The position for 8 PM on Saturday is further south and east than 11 PM on Sunday.

Nice shameless plug BTW (jk) [/quote]

But you do have to agree that cone does now include Ga, (Savannah - birthtown), while the 8pm didn't. Is that a result of smoothing? BTW sorry for the shamless plug, slipped out.

[Brent]

Not as impressive post-eclipse:

[WxGuy1]

Not as impressive post-eclipse:

That's an understatement. It looks absolutely horrible. I still think there's a pretty good chance that Hanna will not do much better than TS-strength. I also have an inkling to say it'll do the "usual" -- recurve early enough to give a glancing blow to the Outer Banks and Cape Hatteras.

[Thunder44]

Not as impressive post-eclipse:

That's an understatement. It looks absolutely horrible. I still think there's a pretty good chance that Hanna will not do much better than TS-strength. I also have an inkling to say it'll do the "usual" -- recurve early enough to give a glancing blow to the Outer Banks and Cape Hatteras.

I think it has a pretty good outflow on the northern quads. But it seems to be entraining some dry air and under some shear from the SW, which has caused the convention to diminish around the center.

[Thunder44]

Well NHC at 5am has increased her winds to near 70mph. But they are only calling for "slight" strengthening over the next couple days. I suspect she did a little more strenghtening after the last mission yesterday.

[KWT]

Yeah it doesn't look great compared with ole Ike out there!
I suppose its still a strong TS andd it still looks better wrapped up then it did 24hrs ago.

[xironman]

How can something that looks like that actually be dropping in pressure from 990 -> 988. It just does not make sense.

[KWT]

Because whilst it does look poor its clearly got convection over the center and its actually pretty well wrapped if you loo, just needs deeper convection and it wouldn't look all that bad.

[Nimbus]

Once she gets out of the shear from the ULL to her SW she should recover later today.

If she were actually to stay weak and devoid of convection there would not be as much of a weakness left behind for Ike would there?

[KWT]

Quite possibly not Numbus though I think the thing that keeps the weakness to some extent is the ET process aand when it develops frontal system it leaves a tail of energy to the south I'd guess.

Anyway just need to see if the convection decides to rebuild or not. At least its not a total mess like it was before.

[Nimbus]

One thing for sure, that naked LLC is not going to be much of a trough magnet unless she deepens pretty soon!

[jabber]

Quite possibly not Numbus though I think the thing that keeps the weakness to some extent is the ET process aand when it develops frontal system it leaves a tail of energy to the south I'd guess.

Anyway just need to see if the convection decides to rebuild or not. At least its not a total mess like it was before.

Yeah maybe but right now if you look at the WV view of the atlantic its hard to even see a TS or even a TD by the look. I think if some convection does not start to wrap soon it will never make it to a Hurricane much less stay at a TS.

[KWT]

Actually I've just has another look at the Vis...it is a mess afterall!

[HURAKAN]

Just by looking at the image it's impossible to estimate 60 knots. Hanna must have a very vigorous LLC.

[wxman57]

Not as impressive post-eclipse:

That's an understatement. It looks absolutely horrible. I still think there's a pretty good chance that Hanna will not do much better than TS-strength. I also have an inkling to say it'll do the "usual" -- recurve early enough to give a glancing blow to the Outer Banks and Cape Hatteras.

Hanna doesn't even look tropical. It has NO CORE! There are no high winds around the center evident on obs in the area. I haven't been able to find a TS wind observation, though it may have a few. Don't focus on where the center goes ashore as there isn't anything AT the center except a region of lighter winds. I doubt it'll recover before it passes the Carolinas tomorrow (o4 after). In that case, look for 35-45 mph winds with higher gusts as it goes by. Seems to be really accelerating now, too.

[KWT]

Also with such a weak system its more likely to steered by the lower steering current.

[Okibeach]

I was shocked by the winds mentioned in the 5 a.m discussion. It looks so pathetic and hard to make out much circulation at all. Gustav looked better than this after being over land for a couple of days.

[KWT]

It can't be 70mph now, I'd be very surprised if it was anything above 40kts right now but then again it depends on how well the LLC is holding up.

[Stormavoider]

hard to make out much circulation at all.

Maybe this will help.