ATL: IKE Discussion

[Thunder44]

Wxman57 was right the models keep on shifting right. S FL might be in the clear with Ike after all if it turns NNW in the Bahamas.Other than Fay we are dodging Hanna, now maybe Ike.

The 0z Euro has making landfall in South FL at 144hrs and the 0z GGEM is comes very close to South FL before turning it northward. I don't think they are in the clear yet. Not even close to it. But I do agree the trend has been to the right.

[jlauderdal]

Wxman57 was right the models keep on shifting right. S FL might be in the clear with Ike after all if it turns NNW in the Bahamas.Other than Fay we are dodging Hanna, now maybe Ike.

Just woke up. Here are the 6Z models. Shift east continues:

hopefully it continues, i dont like a cane coming in heading sw and then its going to make this turn..50 miles farther south or west or a combo and watch out, it would be alot a better for us if it was a 270 or 280 heading and then we depended on the turn, model watching continues

[KWT]

WOW....Ike has totally bombed overnight hasn't it, it did look good when I went to sleep but holy it looks utterly stunning now, powerful cat-4!!

The other thing to note is its still too early to know what will happen with regards to what Ike does. If the WSW doesn't begin then we should be ok but quite a few of the nmodels are still pretty close to Florida and also most models still are predicitng that the Bahamas are going to get a close shave from a dangerous hurricane.

[Nimbus]

That shrinking eye definately looks due for an ERC this morning.

Ike is Wobbling NW on track and the models have shifted right so you have to be happy about that if you live in Florida.

The water vapor loop is showing Hannas moist outlflow starting to curl clockwise northwest of Ike.

The ULL west of Hanna drifted south a little after blowing the tops off hanna again, and the ULL over Cape cod is moving out to the NE. It does look like there will be enough time for some major ridging to build in as Hanna leaves.

Don't know what the upper air pattern will look like over the Bahamas in 4 days, but it will be interesting to see how the west to WSW track forecast verifies for the different models.

[KWT]

I don't know if they really have though Nimbus, sure the GFS and maybe a few consensus models have but the ECM, CMC are both suggesting big Florida hits, the GFDL and HWRF totally hammer the Bahamas before any possible recurve, its really only the UKMO and GFS that totally let any land off scott free so to speak.

Still yeah the eye is really contracting now, EWRC possibly is starting though it may also be the influence of some shear.

[jlauderdal]

That shrinking eye definately looks due for an ERC this morning.

Ike is Wobbling NW on track and the models have shifted right so you have to be happy about that if you live in Florida.

The water vapor loop is showing Hannas moist outlflow starting to curl clockwise northwest of Ike.

The ULL west of Hanna drifted south a little after blowing the tops off hanna again, and the ULL over Cape cod is moving out to the NE. It does look like there will be enough time for some major ridging to build in as Hanna leaves.

Don't know what the upper air pattern will look like over the Bahamas in 4 days, but it will be interesting to see how the west to WSW track forecast verifies for the different models.

the forward speed of this system is concerning to me as far as this turn, it only has to go west of its current track or south for 6-10 hours before the turn we have a big problem, we are still in long range territory and as long as the track keeps shifting east then fine but if we start to settle on a floyd like track than im concerned if it keeps its forward speed, this isnt fay or hanna that is going to start and stall and linger and drift east and west and north and south and every degree on the compass in between. ortt had an interesting angle last night on the gfs and what it was seeing as far as ike being shallow when clearly ike was far from being a shallow system.

majors are exciting and interesting to look at from space or if you are chasing(because you dont have to hang around for the misery factor after)and all that but for those of you that want to experience tropical activity you don't want this one, stick with the TS or weak canes for excitement, for our new members remember the Bahamas will do next to nothing to minimize intensity, its flat, ssts are around a seasonal peak and there will be high pressure right on top of this...hopefully it never makes the bahamas but if it does they are much better equipped to deal with a major than anywhere in the usa

[CaneCharmer]

Looks like the high pressure red carpet is being rolled out for the biggest star in the Atlantic! If Ike can maintain forward speed, he'll be more likely to miss the recurve bus, and head for land. I'm not buying the far east trend of GFS as yet because it seems to still be underestimating the strength of Ike and the ridge. As a hurricane Andrew eyewall veteran, I will not let my guard down until it's a sure thing Ike decides not to vacation in Miami. Until then, you better believe I'm getting preparations in order!

[KWT]

Yep though I'm thinking this will quite possibly the strongest since Floyd to go through the Bahamas region, looking at the set-up I think its nearly odds on this effects the Bahamas now unless it doesn't bend as strongly to the WSW. As for the US, looks like another Floyd situation, we just can't tell right now, its going to be close either way...

Also the eye is really clouding over, I think EWRC may well be happening.

[AJC3]

Over the last few hours post eclipse, The IR presentation of Ike is starting to take on the look of a system in the early stages of encountering shear. The CDO has become sort of teardropped shaped and a bit flat on the west side. The rounded edge seems to be pointing into the shear, which appears to be out of the NNW. I think this is likely a function of the fact that it is starting to feel the ridge to it's northwest pushing down on it.

The CIMSS shear analyses don't seem to suggest that this is occurring, other than some light NW flow pushing down on it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

However...remember that Ike is a fairly small system, and these are much more sensitive to both positive (as we have already seen) and negative (as we may see over the next couple days) changes in it's environment.

[KWT]

AJC3, I see what you mean with regards to the teardrop shape and that would explain why the eye has clouded over as well. Could this also mean that a bend back west is going to happen very soon then as its starting to 'feel' the high pressure build in at last?

[jlauderdal]

Over the last few hours post eclipse, The IR presentation of Ike is starting to take on the look of a system in the early stages of encountering shear. The CDO has become sort of teardropped shaped and a bit flat on the west side. The rounded edge seems to be pointing into the shear, which appears to be out of the NNW. I think this is likely a function of the fact that it is starting to feel the ridge to it's northwest pushing down on it.

The CIMSS shear analyses don't seem to suggest that this is occurring, other than some light NW flow pushing down on it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

However...remember that Ike is a fairly small system, and these are much more sensitive to both positive (as we have already seen) and negative (as we may see over the next couple days) changes in it's environment.

they dont jack up at uw and those shear analysis charts

nhc has this moving wnw until early tomorrow then w then sw but if its feeling that ridge could we see a flatter track for the next day or so as a result of what you are seeing

[KWT]

It certainly would prove to be interesting if that happened jlauderdal, I think whilst this may well be the first signs of the high building in it'll take a little bit of time for the steering currents to bend this back to due west.

The big unkown is to whether it takes the WSW motion or not, I really wouldn't like to say as its a rather unusual track for a system to take...

[wjs3]

Over the last few hours post eclipse, The IR presentation of Ike is starting to take on the look of a system in the early stages of encountering shear. The CDO has become sort of teardropped shaped and a bit flat on the west side. The rounded edge seems to be pointing into the shear, which appears to be out of the NNW. I think this is likely a function of the fact that it is starting to feel the ridge to it's northwest pushing down on it.

The CIMSS shear analyses don't seem to suggest that this is occurring, other than some light NW flow pushing down on it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

However...remember that Ike is a fairly small system, and these are much more sensitive to both positive (as we have already seen) and negative (as we may see over the next couple days) changes in it's environment.

The center is also to the NW edge of convection, further supporting this idea. In addition, outflow looks weaker to the NW than elsewhere. Both suggestive of shear from that general direction. Good analysis.

[Hockey007]

And the eye cleared again? http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES09452008248LNdHai.jpg

[wjs3]

And the eye cleared again? http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES09452008248LNdHai.jpg

No...look at visible:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/vis-l.jpg

[KWT]

Both images are taken at the same time, I guess that the eye is clouding over though the IR suggests its not badly overcast just yet so its probably not weakening all that quickly just yet.

However the NW audrant does look the worst and it seems like the outflow on the southern side seems flatter on the western side whilst the eastern side its still very rounded.

[Windtalker1]

Wxman57 was right the models keep on shifting right. S FL might be in the clear with Ike after all if it turns NNW in the Bahamas.Other than Fay we are dodging Hanna, now maybe Ike.

and tomorrow the models will shift back west then the next day east then the next day west and so on and so on.............

we should all be used to this by now

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
620 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...HANNA FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND TRACK WELL OFFSHORE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT/FRI...
...IKE IS A CONCERN THOUGH LONG RANGE TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN...

CURRENTLY-TODAY...THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL CHUG NORTHWEST JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY WITH THE MAIN LOCAL CONCERNS BEING OVER THE MARINE AREA AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE INCREASING SEAS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MID/UPPER DRYING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HANNA SO HAVE TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE VERY LOW MAV POPS (MAX OF 2 PERCENT AREAWIDE!). THE LATEST RADAR HAS A FEW SHOWERS SPREADING WESTWARD JUST AHEAD OF THE DEEPEST DRYING SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET. THINK THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SO NOT PLANNING ON CARRYING ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE TREND FOR THE TRACK OF HANNA HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE...BUT WITH THE CENTER JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...IT SHOULD BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST AND WINDY AT THE BEACHES. HAVE INITIATED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE COAST AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD NEAR 10 FEET OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT.

WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS ON THE WEST PERIPHERY OF HANNA. THINK THAT THE INTERIOR WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BUT WILL MATCH THE SMALL MAV POP THERE.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS HANNA AT HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE CENTER ABOUT 200 MILES E/NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL. HANNA WILL CONTINUE ON A QUICK COURSE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND DROPPED FAR INTERIOR AREAS TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO MATCH WITH THE EASTWARD FORECAST TREND FOR HANNA. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACT AMOUNT DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK OF HANNA BUT AT THIS TIME AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH COULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MAINLY NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS HANNA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WINDS BACKING TO THE WEST AND DECREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SAT-WED...DRIER AIR AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND HANNA SHOULD LEAD TO A RELATIVELY DRY WEEKEND WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED SUNDAY. THE FORECAST THEN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF TC IKE. NHC HAS IKE MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE MONDAY AS A STRONG CAT 3 HURRICANE. FROM THIS POINT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF IKE WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS RECURVING THE CENTER WELL OFFSHORE FROM FLORIDA TUES INTO WED WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IKE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE. MAIN POINT TO TAKE AWAY FROM THIS HOWEVER IS THAT THERE REMAINS GREAT UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TRACK OF IKE AND IT IS ADVISED THAT ALL INTERESTS CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE NHC FORECASTS FOR THIS SYSTEM.

[KWT]

Western quadrant seems to have really flattened out, the eastern side still displaying very impressive outflow right now as well as the southern quadrant, as you'd expect with some NW shear probably aloft.

Eye seems to be expanding a little bit but also filling in as well though that may well just be an illusion. I suspect its probably right at the bottom end of cat-4 now, 115kts would be my guess.

[cycloneye]

Good morning Ike!