LW, there were those (myself included) who thought that Gustav would wind up closer to Houston than New Orleans (obviously wrong). As we opined such thoughts, some gently and some not so gently pointed out the excellent track record of NHC on track guidance this year (Fay being the exception).
So, I sat back and watched as the NHC put on a textbook display of a big 'cane hitting nearly in their bullseye from several days out - a truly great job by the NHC.
Now, with Ike ramping up (perhaps to become the strongest 'cane of the season) it seems like deja vu all over again - some pointing out that the NHC is to be trusted, others saying, no if you read between the lines or follow this model or that, it will take a northerly move and recurve.
I got to tell you, this is a great board to be a part of!
But after being taken to the woodshed last week by the NHC's track guidance on Gus, I'm sticking with their cone of uncertainty until there is sufficent reason to think otherwise.
So, my take is that SE Florida and the Keys had better be on high alert in a few days.
: At this point there is no recon so wind speed is just a guess at this stage of the game based on how the storm looks, right? I remember last week Gustav looked stronger than he was at the time and many thought it would be upgraded (again based on how it looked) but recon data suggested otherwise. 
