ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[terrapintransit]

These models seem to suggest a re curve........

[DESTRUCTION5]

What do ECMWF show for long-term path....?

It makes you put them Shutters up

[gatorcane]

What do ECMWF show for long-term path....?

It makes you put them Shutters up

The Euro overestimated the ridge with Hanna though beyond 5 days so that is some good news.

[Sanibel]

On Gus GFDL had a similar extreme SW dip outlier this far out that ended up materializing.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO has Ikie in EFlorida then up the EC.

[Ixolib]

These models seem to suggest a re curve........

There's talk that many of the models have not yet picked up on (or did not pick up on) the RI of Ike. Consequently, when their runs were released, the projected intensity of Ike was a bit lower - hence the tendancy to recurve, or at least take a more northwesterly track, at the end of day 4ish was a bit more likely.

But with Ike's RI, there seems to be some discussion regarding his influence on the ridge and perhaps even contributing to strengthening its W and SW expansion later in the track.

So, perhaps these curves/recurves at day 4 and 5 might be reduced somewhat on their next run once they take Ike's new - and perhaps unexpected - intensity into consideration.

[artist]

what model runs will have this intensity in them? TIA!

[gatorcane]

00 UTC GFS shortly....

[ericinmia]

what model runs will have this intensity in them? TIA!

Um... about 4 days from now... lol

I haven't heard a model/soul that predicted this, but hey... thats the problem with intensity forecasts. At this point I would sit and wait, as I am going to do (already mostly prepared lol hannah lol). The 00z runs will probably not have the proper intensity in them either, and hence the 06z, 12z, 18z will probably be not all that accurate. So if you can bare it, by 00z tomorrow we should have a MUCH better handle on IKE.
-Eric

[Ed Mahmoud]

I unofficially have no idea, my idea of a North Central GOMEX hit now 8 days out seems pretty unlikely. Not just wrong, but completely wrong.

But Joe Bastardi must have been talking about a major just West of PHL pushing the entire Delaware Bay on top of Philadelphia for some reason.

JB's call earlier today was for Ike to be moving NNW in the Bahamas as a Cat 3, but Ike wasn't a Cat 4 then. He still thinks Hanna makes Cat 3 before landfall in Carolinas, and is a 60 knot storm passing NYC. If he gets that one right, I might buy his between Donna and Gloria track. 'Specially if he gets models support other than the Euro. He has specific lat/long forecast points, wind and pressure, but it violates at least the spirit of my PPV terms of service if I listed those.

18Z ensembles support 12Z ensembles in that Texas seems like it is in the clear, unofficially, with Westerlies around a ridge centered in the Gulf.

[ExBailbonds]

00z GFS http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Hit refresh to add new frames as they come in

[Bgator]

Whats with the GFS, it kills Ike at the end of 24 hours.

If the GFS messes up, wouldnt that effect the GFDL as well, as it is run with GFS data.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think that this run of the GFS is out to lunch again...It appears to show a weak storm in the early portions of the run. I have to agree with Derek on this. This storm is not going to weaken that much which should allow Ike to continue west...

SFT

[cycloneye]

I think that this run of the GFS is out to lunch again...It appears to show a weak storm in the early portions of the run. I have to agree with Derek on this. This storm is not going to weaken that much which should allow Ike to continue west...

SFT

As NHC said in the 11 PM Discussion,there are going to be fluctuations in intensity.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think that this run of the GFS is out to lunch again...It appears to show a weak storm in the early portions of the run. I have to agree with Derek on this. This storm is not going to weaken that much which should allow Ike to continue west...

SFT

As NHC said in the 11 PM Discussion,there are going to be fluctuations in intensity.

I should have worded that differently. What I meant to say was I don't believe that Ike will weaken as much and as quickly as the GFS is showing. I do believe it will weaken but at this point in time I'm going to say down to a weak 2 or strong 1 at minimum...JMO

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SFT

[Evil Jeremy]

The GFS run is not completly killing Ike. You can still see him on frame 2 of the four panel charts. Ike and Hanna are both signified by an "X" in the frame, and the GFS is laying off of a recurve, and Ike is heading WSW at 66 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[gatorcane]

The GFS run is not completly killing Ike. You can still see him on frame 2 of the four panel charts. Ike and Hanna are both signified by an "X" in the frame, and the GFS is laying off of a recurve, and Ike is heading WSW at 66 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

but Ike is like a 100X low in the run...way too weak...

I'm guessing the 00 UTC GFS run will curve him east of the Bahamas...since Ike is so weak.

[fasterdisaster]

I think that this run of the GFS is out to lunch again...It appears to show a weak storm in the early portions of the run. I have to agree with Derek on this. This storm is not going to weaken that much which should allow Ike to continue west...

SFT

As NHC said in the 11 PM Discussion,there are going to be fluctuations in intensity.

I should have worded that differently. What I meant to say was I don't believe that Ike will weaken as much and as quickly as the GFS is showing. I do believe it will weaken but at this point in time I'm going to say down to a weak 2 or strong 1 at minimum...JMO

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SFT

How is Ike going to weaken to Category 2?

[Philly12]

The GFS run is not completly killing Ike. You can still see him on frame 2 of the four panel charts. Ike and Hanna are both signified by an "X" in the frame, and the GFS is laying off of a recurve, and Ike is heading WSW at 66 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

but Ike is like a 100X low in the run...way too weak...

I'm guessing the 00 UTC GFS run will curve him east of the Bahamas...since Ike is so weak.

Thru 84 hrs the GFS is depicting a stronger ridge than the 18Z run

[gatorcane]

The GFS run is not completly killing Ike. You can still see him on frame 2 of the four panel charts. Ike and Hanna are both signified by an "X" in the frame, and the GFS is laying off of a recurve, and Ike is heading WSW at 66 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

but Ike is like a 100X low in the run...way too weak...

I'm guessing the 00 UTC GFS run will curve him east of the Bahamas...since Ike is so weak.

Thru 84 hrs the GFS is depicting a stronger ridge than the 18Z run

Yeah...looks like the 00 UTC GFS doesn't dive Ike WSW but a longer W or WNW motion towards the Bahamas is happening rather than a curve like the 18Z depicted.

A stronger Ike would go WSW and feel the ridge more.