ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[bvigal]

Bless you for charting these! I've gone cross-eyed trying to read those NHC tracks that have Caribbean up to Newfoundland on one map, last 2 days is turns out to be just ONE BIT DOT!!!

[bahamaswx]

Getting TS-force gusts here on occasion, but nothing worth getting excited about. Wish she'd dump some rain though.

[cpdaman]

Getting TS-force gusts here on occasion, but nothing worth getting excited about. Wish she'd dump some rain though.

bahamaswx do you know your latitude/longitude position

[BensonTCwatcher]

Just checking back.. couple things have changed over the last 6 hrs of significance (run the -3 hr plot back 2x)

Anticyclone over Hanna http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

Shear decreasing http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html


ULL to the SW retrograding pretty well, all systems go aloft for development. Just going to have to see how strong hanna can be in 36 hrs.

[cpdaman]

thanks benson really appreciate your insights

NHC said moving at 14 (per 8pm) i though it was difficult to gauge a movement since center location seemed to be changing hourly, bensen do you see this accelerating from here, or possibly slowing down (for any reason)

also should she be stronger do you think that effects the path, i am asking again on the board (don't shoot me guys) cause i think benson would have some insight.

[CrazyC83]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080904/ts ... 0904012252

61 dead in Haiti

[BensonTCwatcher]

shoot the mets can comment on the complexities of predicting storm speed, but i can't see anything better than the NHC track. It looks to finally be moving with the speed of the ridge so my guess is it will continue to be steered by the ridge for the next 36 hrs anyway. I don't think the strength will alter the track off what is forecast since it basically will ride up the periphery of the ridge for a good while now. IMHO

[BensonTCwatcher]

I know this isn't the models thread but intersting to note the possible interaction Ike could cause if the GFS verfies. Not sure there is much data out there on that setup? (+36 hrs)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008090318&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[bahamaswx]

Getting TS-force gusts here on occasion, but nothing worth getting excited about. Wish she'd dump some rain though.

bahamaswx do you know your latitude/longitude position

23.5N 75.7W is a close enough estimate--Great Exuma island.

[capepoint]

Looking bad for NC. If Hannah dumps a lot of rain, then Ike moves up next week, could be lots of trees down and flooding. I hate to even mention it, but Dennis/Floyd caused an awlful lot of damage in eastern NC. This is not quite the same set-up, but it is something we need to keep in the back of our minds.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looking bad for NC. If Hannah dumps a lot of rain, then Ike moves up next week, could be lots of trees down and flooding. I hate to even mention it, but Dennis/Floyd caused an awlful lot of damage in eastern NC. This is not quite the same set-up, but it is something we need to keep in the back of our minds.

yeah good thing Hanna should be moving fast. Dennis lingered. That makes big difference

[gatorcane]

Hanna appears to be moving more WNW to NW over the past couple of hours no? No threat to the East Coast of Florida right????

I hope Hanna doesn't sneak up on Florida while they are all looking way out in the Atlantic at the "I" storm.

what a ridge out there

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

[cpdaman]

delete

[cpdaman]

edit gator just as i type that the last frame 215 seems to show the center move NW, so i would say it has begun to move NW , but any further west (i.e wnw) component was still more of an illusion due to convection building south and wrapping west IMO.

[stormchazer]

With IR its difficult to tell, but it looks to me like Hanna is moving NW or even NNW. I am sure its an illusion but does appear to have made at least a short-term decision to move.

[cpdaman]

With IR its difficult to tell, but it looks to me like Hanna is moving NW or even NNW. I am sure its an illusion but does appear to have made at least a short-term decision to move.

so long as she doesn't slow down again in the bahamian waters, that would give her a chance to ramp up higher prior to landfall

[masaji79]

Hanna sure looks like a different storm than 24 hours ago. Last night she looked almost like an open wave, today she seems to be wrapping quickly. Unfortunately for the East Coast looks like conditions are becoming favorable.

[cpdaman]

gator imagine if her north movement from the northwest flow along the periphery of the atlantic ridge building west got slowed by the SE high to her north and then as time went by the WNW flow became more dominant as she got more "under" the atlantic ridge http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm2-1.html

not sure that made sense, and NO i don't think it will happen

just tryin to think outside the box

[tolakram]

[skufful]

The 11PM Cone is a big shift south, is it not?