ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[shah8]

I do not buy the 18z GFDL. At.All. That kind of massive southerly dive into Haiti makes it sound like as if someone has left a hurricane magnet there!

Both GFDL and HWRF are showing some degree of weakening in the short term...

[Typhoon_Willie]

Ike has been upgraded to Category 3 now!

[gatorcane]

NOGAPS SE Florida (of course the NOGAPS has had a bad track record lately)


HWRF:


GFDL:

[HURRICANELONNY]

Wow a Cat 3 already. Looking at the water vap. loop. To me it looks like Ike will follow Hanna. Not only is Ike getting closer to Hannas outflow but at the rate he is moving. Ike might go over Hanna. Not really but the effect of Hanna to me . Can not make him keep going west.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[fci]

If Bastardi says it's coming to Florida. I know I'm safe. Not that I am a registered Accuweather. It just seems everytime he calls for Florida. It heads away. By the way . I don't know what he said in his projection.

the only problem with that philosophy is one of these times we are going to run out of luck and he will be right and we are going to get spanked big time

Remember a broken clock is right twice a day!

[fasterdisaster]

If Bastardi says it's coming to Florida. I know I'm safe. Not that I am a registered Accuweather. It just seems everytime he calls for Florida. It heads away. By the way . I don't know what he said in his projection.

the only problem with that philosophy is one of these times we are going to run out of luck and he will be right and we are going to get spanked big time

Remember a broken clock is right twice a day!

Not if it's a couple hours slow.

[Derek Ortt]

throw out the GFS... this is not going to weaken nearly to a wave

the stronger the system, the farther west it goes

[captain east]

throw out the GFS... this is not going to weaken nearly to a wave

the stronger the system, the farther west it goes

Do you expect it to ride west into cuba or into gulf, or more for SE FL ?

[Dean4Storms]

The deep turns to the WSW are indicative of a strong and expanding ridge. I'm afraid these runs will change back to a more westward movement after the dip, I just can't see the sudden northward movement unless a strong trough gets all the way down to the Bahama. i can see a slow rounding type movement around the ridge but not this sudden turn NW then north.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 040040
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC THU SEP 4 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE (AL092008) 20080904 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080904 0000 080904 1200 080905 0000 080905 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.8N 53.3W 23.2N 56.1W 24.7N 57.9W 25.2N 59.1W
BAMD 21.8N 53.3W 22.8N 55.9W 23.4N 58.2W 23.3N 60.5W
BAMM 21.8N 53.3W 23.1N 56.3W 24.1N 58.5W 24.4N 60.1W
LBAR 21.8N 53.3W 23.2N 56.4W 24.4N 59.2W 24.9N 62.0W
SHIP 105KTS 108KTS 92KTS 77KTS
DSHP 105KTS 108KTS 92KTS 77KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080906 0000 080907 0000 080908 0000 080909 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.2N 60.6W 25.0N 65.1W 26.4N 69.4W 27.0N 73.0W
BAMD 22.6N 63.0W 20.9N 67.5W 20.7N 69.5W 23.2N 70.3W
BAMM 23.9N 61.8W 22.6N 65.6W 23.0N 68.0W 26.2N 69.3W
LBAR 24.8N 65.1W 23.6N 70.5W 22.4N 74.9W 20.3N 76.4W
SHIP 67KTS 69KTS 72KTS 78KTS
DSHP 67KTS 69KTS 72KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 53.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 20.6N LONM12 = 50.4W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 19.7N LONM24 = 47.1W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 956MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 185NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 120NM

[Ivanhater]

The deep turns to the WSW are indicative of a strong and expanding ridge. I'm afraid these runs will change back to a more westward movement after the dip, I just can't see the sudden northward movement unless a strong trough gets all the way down to the Bahamas.

Dean, the thing to look for is how this trough plays out a week from now..we have seen time and time again models overplay troughs only to see the models start to slow and flatten the troughs out when the time gets closer..I wouldnt be suprised if the models start to show the trough to slow and flatten out and only pull some on Ike then the ridge builds back in...still many days to watch this play out, but Ive seen this scenario I just pointed out happen time and time again...

[Ptarmigan]

throw out the GFS... this is not going to weaken nearly to a wave

the stronger the system, the farther west it goes

I have heard that Ike could make it to the Gulf of Mexico.

[gatorcane]

good consensus on NHC 5pmEST track looking at the guidance envelope above maybe a slight southward adjustment in the long-range and cone expanded further west but that is all I see them doing.

[El Nino]

2h until the next advisory. I feel some nervousity and impatience ...

[chris_fit]

What is the GFDL doing diving it to Hispaniola?

[Weatherfreak000]

The last forecast seemed good to me....no real reason to disagree.

[Ivanhater]

The last forecast seemed good to me....no real reason to disagree.

I agree...

[MGC]

No one on along the GOM coast is wishing for a hurricane unless you are a teenager and want some time off from school. But, if you look at the 5 day cone then a westward extension is highly likely in the coming days. It will all depend on the strength of the Bermuda ridge. After all there have been many hurricanes in the past that have graced the beaches of South Florida only to end up visiting the N Gulf Coast such as: 1947 hurricane, Betsy 1965, Andrew 1992, Georges 1998, Katrina 2005 and probably a few I forgot about....MGC

[x-y-no]

Enough with the analysis of other members. This thread is for discussion about model runs on Hurricane Ike.

[gatorcane]

What do ECMWF show for long-term path....?