ATL: IKE Discussion

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Re: ATL Tropical Storm IKE - Discussion

#701 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:12 pm

Do any of the pro mets think that the NHC track may shift to the right at days 4-5?
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#702 Postby Lowpressure » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I agree that the upgrade should have come earlier - at 0600Z is when I would have upgraded it personally. I'd say 75 kt right now.

Core does look to be much better established. Which is what they were waiting for.
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#703 Postby rockyman » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:16 pm

The Euro's "big turn" doesn't happen until after 5 days...so I doubt the NHC will do much adjusting to the track at 5pm.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm IKE - Discussion

#704 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:16 pm

crazycajuncane wrote:Ike poses a huge problem to all of us in South Louisiana assuming he does head in this direction.

Many people will not want to leave because Gustav didn't do the damage expected (in some places). People are quick to compare storms even though none have ever been the same.

I'd say you'd have less people evacuating for Ike 4 days before the storm, but if Ike comes barreling in at a Cat 4 or 5 you'd have people get serious at the last minute and clog the roads.

Katrina is an example of complacency. I wouldn't dare ride out a storm in New Orleans, but some people will take the chance. I read an article where a nurse said she won't go back to New Orleans after this last evacuation, because she can't pack up every 9 months and run every time a hurricane is coming. Many people will feel the same way.

We do take hurricanes very seriously down here. It's just picking your spots. We stayed in Lafayette and everything worked out fine this time. We stayed for Lili, Andrew and Rita also. You just never know what you are going to get.

Best of luck to all who have to make that decision. Hopefully Ike isn't an issue for us in 7-10 days and we can all rest easy.



It may never be so don't worry.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm IKE - Discussion

#705 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:18 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Crazycajuncane

Unofficially, I think Ike doesn't make it that far West, and Lousiana's next hurricane threat this year, if there is one, comes up from the Caribbean ala Isidore and Lili.



I believe any threats to the central GOM this year come from home cooking.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL Tropical Storm IKE - Discussion

#706 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:23 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Crazycajuncane

Unofficially, I think Ike doesn't make it that far West, and Lousiana's next hurricane threat this year, if there is one, comes up from the Caribbean ala Isidore and Lili.



I believe any threats to the central GOM this year come from home cooking.


I should include the BOC in that...
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm IKE - Discussion

#707 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:23 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Crazycajuncane

Unofficially, I think Ike doesn't make it that far West, and Lousiana's next hurricane threat this year, if there is one, comes up from the Caribbean ala Isidore and Lili.



I believe any threats to the central GOM this year come from home cooking.



Yep, it is coming into the time of year where most of these higher lat. storms get turned by the westerlies eventually. Anything more for the Gulf will likely come from the Western Carib. or GOM.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm IKE - Discussion

#708 Postby StJoe » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:23 pm

Not that I want to see Ike in my neck of the woods, but I gotta tell you all, he is one nice looking storm soon to become a cane, IMO...Real pretty to look at on the latest loops. I know it sounds wierd, but I believe most posters in here appreciate this as much as I do, just not what follows...
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#709 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:25 pm

Image

Ike.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm IKE - Discussion

#710 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:25 pm

gtsmith wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
Vortex wrote:12Z guidance Nogaps, GFS, Hwrf all biting on the hard right turn well east of Florida.


I'm biting hard on it too. I really don't think this is a Gulf storm. I think there will be a break there and I think the NHC track will have to be adjusted to the right. Whether the break is hard enough to spare FL or the SE US...not sure yet. I just am not sold on a track that goes west for so long into the gulf.

I do think the ridge will be stronger than the GFS is hinting at. It is possible this could be a repeat for NC after Hanna (who was saying last week there season was over?)

Time will tell.


you are a pro met and I dont doubt your skills at all...but playing devils advocate, and I realise the location and synoptics are completely different, but Dean last year traveled on a due west track all the way across the carribean...and i remember many forecasts of "in a few days he'll start to turn north", first into hispaniola, then into Cuba, the into the Yucatan channel, then into the yucatan...my point being no one expected that track to come to fruition, and anything could happen, right?


Dean was also at 12N. Some of the early 5 day forecasts had it going into Hispaniola...but none of them ever had it going into Cuba. After adv. 8....they all kept it moving WNW or W south of Cuba and Hisp. Again...different system and different synoptics. Also...almost 8 degrees further south of where Ike is now. That makes a big difference when feeling out weakenesses in ridges.

Its also September...not the middle of August. That also makes some difference. Add all of these factors together...and thats why I don't think it can make a run like that. Even if the models weren't showing a break in the ridge...I would still have a hard time believing it wouldn't find a break somewhere. Pretty much every storm that has been where Ike has has found a break. I think he will too.
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#711 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:29 pm

When I see such a westward push by the models with a system this high north, Dora always comes to mind.

Image
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#712 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:29 pm

12Z ECMWF bring it right over andros island and right up to the SE coast of Fl before a turn due north.
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#713 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:30 pm

I'm feeling better Ike will be far east of Florida and nothing to worry about in SE Florida....

Based on model trends and pro met analysis so far on Ike
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm IKE - Discussion

#714 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:31 pm

Dean was also at 12N. Some of the early 5 day forecasts had it going into Hispaniola...but none of them ever had it going into Cuba. After adv. 8....they all kept it moving WNW or W south of Cuba and Hisp. Again...different system and different synoptics. Also...almost 8 degrees further south of where Ike is now. That makes a big difference when feeling out weakenesses in ridges.

Its also September...not the middle of August. That also makes some difference. Add all of these factors together...and thats why I don't think it can make a run like that. Even if the models weren't showing a break in the ridge...I would still have a hard time believing it wouldn't find a break somewhere. Pretty much every storm that has been where Ike has has found a break. I think he will too.




Andrew didn't, and that was late in August. Some seem to be arguing for a Floyd or Isabelle track, but I would wait another day or two on that. The NHC has been dead on and until we start to hear talks of a turn from them, I would be very hesitant to let my guard down with what I think will be the Atlantic's next major storm.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm IKE - Discussion

#715 Postby caneseddy » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:32 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Its also September...not the middle of August. That also makes some difference. Add all of these factors together...and thats why I don't think it can make a run like that. Even if the models weren't showing a break in the ridge...I would still have a hard time believing it wouldn't find a break somewhere. Pretty much every storm that has been where Ike has has found a break. I think he will too.


The question is where does it make the turn...east of the Bahamas and out to sea and not affect anyone....over Florida (1928 Okeechobee Hurricane), east of the Bahamas and up to the Mid-Atlantic (Gloria), east of the Bahamas and into the Carolinas (Hugo) or east of the Bahamas up into the NE (1938 Long Island Express), eastern Gulf and into Florida (Donna)

Too soon to tell
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm IKE - Discussion

#716 Postby Lowpressure » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:32 pm

At current speed how many days behind Hanna is Ike if they hit the same area, say in Charleston? Does 4 days sound right?
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm IKE - Discussion

#717 Postby gtsmith » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:33 pm

Air Force Met wrote:Dean was also at 12N. Some of the early 5 day forecasts had it going into Hispaniola...but none of them ever had it going into Cuba. After adv. 8....they all kept it moving WNW or W south of Cuba and Hisp. Again...different system and different synoptics. Also...almost 8 degrees further south of where Ike is now. That makes a big difference when feeling out weakenesses in ridges.

Its also September...not the middle of August. That also makes some difference. Add all of these factors together...and thats why I don't think it can make a run like that. Even if the models weren't showing a break in the ridge...I would still have a hard time believing it wouldn't find a break somewhere. Pretty much every storm that has been where Ike has has found a break. I think he will too.


perhaps i didn't enumerate the differences as much as I should have when I posted (I do realise the huge differences between the storms) and I appreciate your input...i was merely trying to point out that anything can happen - sorry for that, guess I should not have done it...back to my self imposed posting ban...
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm IKE - Discussion

#718 Postby gboudx » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:34 pm

caneseddy wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Its also September...not the middle of August. That also makes some difference. Add all of these factors together...and thats why I don't think it can make a run like that. Even if the models weren't showing a break in the ridge...I would still have a hard time believing it wouldn't find a break somewhere. Pretty much every storm that has been where Ike has has found a break. I think he will too.


The question is where does it make the turn...east of the Bahamas and out to sea and not affect anyone....over Florida (1928 Okeechobee Hurricane), east of the Bahamas and up to the Mid-Atlantic (Gloria), east of the Bahamas and into the Carolinas (Hugo) or east of the Bahamas up into the NE (1938 Long Island Express), eastern Gulf and into Florida (Donna)

Too soon to tell


Why does what you quoted say that it was from HURAKAN? It was AFM who typed that comment. Strange.
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#719 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:36 pm

03/1745 UTC 21.3N 51.7W T4.5/4.5 IKE -- Atlantic Ocean

Supports 75-80 kt.
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Re:

#720 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:37 pm

gatorcane wrote:I'm feeling better Ike will be far east of Florida and nothing to worry about in SE Florida....

Based on model trends and pro met analysis so far on Ike



Im not so sure..I think if you blended all the models right now the Euro would be right downt he middle of the of the pact and makes complete sense. It basically kisses the beaches of se fl and a cat 3 or 4 is much much to close for comfort for my liking.
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