ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

This is looking more and more like an East Coast storm. Of course the models have had a tendency this far out to be way off so the wait and see continues.

[Portastorm]

Folks better hope that Ike is picked up in a few days and shunted off the East Coast, because if he's not and if the 0z and 12z GFS runs have decent accuracy, looks like a stout high pressure ridge builds in the east during much of next week, meaning Ike would continue on a west/west-northwest path in the eastern and central Gulf ... and then, a very deep trough appears to move west to east across the nation by Thursday of next week, no doubt picking up Ike if he's still lingering around the Gulf.

[Blown Away]

IMO, If the NHC thinks Ike will miss Florida then we should start to see a significant bend near the end of the 5 day track starting at 5pm. I still think the Hebert Box rule applies and Ike is going to miss that mark (20N/60W) to the N and miss SFL and maybe affect the Carolinas N. Just my 2 cents.

[UpTheCreek]

We've been lucky here in NC for a good while now. Wish it would continue! But it's looking like the possibility of taking not one, but two for the gipper with Hanna and Ike. Wouldn't mind Ike making a big swing and missing all of us out to sea.

[wxman57]

18Z models showing more of a NW bend at the end:

[wxman57]

IMO, If the NHC thinks Ike will miss Florida then we should start to see a significant bend near the end of the 5 day track starting at 5pm. I still think the Hebert Box rule applies and Ike is going to miss that mark (20N/60W) to the N and miss SFL and maybe affect the Carolinas N. Just my 2 cents.

Don't count on it. The NHC forecast probably won't clear anything up today. They'll have it pointed generally at south Florida without much hint of a turn sharply enough to miss Florida. Even on my track which takes it to NC, if you look at just the first 5 days then it isn't clear it'll miss Florida.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can we please focus on models not JB. He has been worse so far this year than ever. Like many say, throw it out.

He was pretty good on Dolly, predicted Edouard a week before it formed, not bad on Fay, and, while having the same error in strength as NHC, had a good forecast for Gustav.

He may be a bit off on Hanna being a Cat 3, but that isn't over 'til its over.

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z models showing more of a NW bend at the end:

Can you see the FSU super ensemble?

[Portastorm]

Can we please focus on models not JB. He has been worse so far this year than ever. Like many say, throw it out.

He was pretty good on Dolly, predicted Edouard a week before it formed, not bad on Fay, and, while having the same error in strength as NHC, had a good forecast for Gustav.

He may be a bit off on Hanna being a Cat 3, but that isn't over 'til its over.

Ed, you're not serious about this, are you?! How can you possibly say JB was "not bad on Fay?" He was absolutely horrible on Fay! He predicted it would be a Cat 2 or 3 and hit the Carolinas.

You're right on about his take on Dolly and Edouard. He did great on those storms, but his performance on Fay was simply abysmal. Kinda like the Aggies this past Saturday, heh heh! OK, sorry about that one.

[SWFLA_CANE]

IMO, If the NHC thinks Ike will miss Florida then we should start to see a significant bend near the end of the 5 day track starting at 5pm. I still think the Hebert Box rule applies and Ike is going to miss that mark (20N/60W) to the N and miss SFL and maybe affect the Carolinas N. Just my 2 cents.

Don't count on it. The NHC forecast probably won't clear anything up today. They'll have it pointed generally at south Florida without much hint of a turn sharply enough to miss Florida. Even on my track which takes it to NC, if you look at just the first 5 days then it isn't clear it'll miss Florida.

wxman57, is this a case where IKE moves faster then projected it will move further west or would a faster forward speed mean a the northward turn begins sooner?

[Bocadude85]

IMO, If the NHC thinks Ike will miss Florida then we should start to see a significant bend near the end of the 5 day track starting at 5pm. I still think the Hebert Box rule applies and Ike is going to miss that mark (20N/60W) to the N and miss SFL and maybe affect the Carolinas N. Just my 2 cents.

Don't count on it. The NHC forecast probably won't clear anything up today. They'll have it pointed generally at south Florida without much hint of a turn sharply enough to miss Florida. Even on my track which takes it to NC, if you look at just the first 5 days then it isn't clear it'll miss Florida.

how does anyone know if ike will or will not miss fla 5 days from now

[Ed Mahmoud]

Kinda like the Aggies this past Saturday, heh heh! OK, sorry about that one.

Everybody was off on Fay.

No need to apologize about the Aggies. They fired the cannon at the Texas game when that score was announced.

Off topic, but Miami will get spanked hard by Florida, and will be looking for revenge when they play the Aggies. I don't think the U is good enough for a 77-0 Oklahoma kind of beating, but they'll try.

Sherman has a year of blaming Coach Fran before their fans start calling for his blood.


ETA

Copied and pasted Weatherboy1's post from main Ike thread...

More from the HPC's discussion on Ike's future path:

...HURCN IKE...

THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE: HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE N OF THE STORM COME DAYS 6-7? WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FROM INTERACTING WITH THE POLAR WESTERLIES? THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PLOTS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD OVER FL...CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS FOR DAYS 6-7.
TPC AND HPC GRAPHICS TAKE THE HURCN UP THE E COAST OF FL...IN A VERY CRITICAL AREA WHERE JUST A FEW DECIMETERS DIFFERENCE IN 500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE SE WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ANOTHER LANDFILLING TROPICAL SYS AND A SHARPER RE-CURVATURE OUT TO SEA.

[Derek Ortt]

in this case, strong means west

the models that turn this out to sea (GFS) have this as a weak system. With the deep layer ridge to the north, a stronger system likely will head more to the west.

Unfortunately, this is almost certain to be a strong system

[Ed Mahmoud]

in this case, strong means west

the models that turn this out to sea (GFS) have this as a weak system. With the deep layer ridge to the north, a stronger system likely will head more to the west.

Unfortunately, this is almost certain to be a strong system

OK, we know you're not a big fan of a certain private sector met who shows up on TV sometimes, and won the over 40 year old division of the world drug free body building championships, but what are the odds of a path between Donna and Gloria?

[Texas Snowman]

Agreed - based on what is in front of Ike, I think (unofficially) that there will be an Andrew like Cat 4 sitting SE of Miami a few days from now.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Here is a link to the Nrl site regarding Ike's 5 day path. At the end of the 5 day path intensity could be and I emphasize could be at 100 knots gusting to 120 knots.

[KWT]

I've noticed Derek the models that do strengthen Ike generally suggest a big Bahamas risk, I think thats where we really need to watch and if its strongere the bigger the dip to the WSW I believe as well as shown per the current steering guidence...

[wxman57]

Can you see the FSU super ensemble?

I can for a few hundred thousand dollars (or more?). Got some cash?

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...



THU...LATEST NHC TRACK FOR TC HANNA REMAINS FARTHER EAST AND IS FCST
TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE DAY ON THU. HANNA WILL TRACK
NW-NNW UP INTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAHAMA CHAIN DURING THE DAY BUT
KEEP IN MIND THAT A CERTAIN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN BOTH
THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE
CURRENT NHC GUIDANCE CAN DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED TO THE
LATEST NHC ADVISORIES. DUE TO A GREAT DEAL OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REDUCE POPS TO ONLY SCHC DURING THE
DAY. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THU AND GUSTY AT TIMES.
THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE AREAS
WITH BEACH EROSION...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...AND ROUGH SURF
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...WITH HANNA FCST TO MOVE PARALLEL THE FL EAST COAST
AND WELL OFFSHORE...SCT SHRA AND SOME SQUALLS WILL BE MOST COMMON
OVER THE ATLC...WITH OCNL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE COASTAL COS...
ESPECIALLY WHILE THE CENTER IS SOUTH OF ABOUT 27N/28N AND THE FLOW
STILL HASA SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE COMPONENT. HANNA`S FOREWARD SPEED
WILL LIMIT DURATION OF SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATED WX OVER LAND -
ONCE IT REACHES ABOUT 29N...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FLOPA AROUND TO
NW/OFFSORE AND CONDS WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY. WILL LIKELY NEED EITHER
A WIND ADVISORY OR A LK WIND ADVISORY OVER THE COASTAL COS...BUT
MAY NOT NEED ANYTHING MORE THAN "WINDY" VERBIAGE FOR THE INTR.
TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO GIVEN THE CONTINENTAL (NW-W)
TRAJECTORY.

SAT-WED...MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT NHC TRACK PUSHES HANNA WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. AS THE T.C. MOVES NORTH...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING
OVER THE AREA. RELATIVELY LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL THEREFORE EXIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GREATER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF WHAT SHOULD BE HURRICANE IKE. NHC FORECAST
CURRENTLY HAS IKE BECOMING A MAJOR HURCN MOVING NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES BY THIS WEEKEND...INTO THE BAHAMAS MON...WITH THE HPC/NHC
COORD DAY 6-7 PTS UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO ECFL...TO SAY THE LEAST.



SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI

[wxman57]

in this case, strong means west

the models that turn this out to sea (GFS) have this as a weak system. With the deep layer ridge to the north, a stronger system likely will head more to the west.

Unfortunately, this is almost certain to be a strong system

\

I have it to a Cat 3 in the Bahamas then northward to the Carolinas - very close to Hanna's current projected path. Certainly can't rule out a Florida hit, though.