ATL: IKE Discussion

[captain east]

This should definitly be upgraded to a hurricane at the 5:00 PM update, the eye looks closed and this thing just looks like a text book storm if you asked me...

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think there is much of a chance of this threatening the gulf now, there looks like being enough enough of a weakness to lift Ike out but to what degree and how soon that happens will determine exactly the track Ike takes.

I don't think it's going to catch the weakness. I think it will close up by that time and a high will begin to build fairly quickly. Plus, Jeff Masters mention if hanna takes longer to move, then a recurve is more possible, but now that Hanna is picking up it's forward speed, I would think it's lessening the chance of a recurve as Hanna is on the move....

[gtsmith]

I do agree with you that our friends on the central Gulf Coast are less likely to heed any warnings having just returned home after what may be perceived as an unnecessary evacuation.

Lynn

Unnecessary? Did you see how close the water came to overtop the Industrial Canal? It was very necessary and if it's needed, people should do it again. This is what I worry, that people may start to think that the evacuation was unnecessary. Sorry, but if you live in New Orleans or near the coast in the Gulf of Mexico, evacuating for a major hurricane is always a sound advise. We have a lot of examples in the past 4 years of why evacuating the coast is the best solution. If you are alive and your house is gone then you can work to replace it. But if you die, you can't replace that.

Sir, with all due respect, she wrote "after what may be perceived as an unnecessary evacuation" - emphasis mine. Did you not read it? She did not write that it was an "unnecessary evacuation".

The first thing I thought to myself after Gustav went through, and the fact that we didn't have video footage of of a flooded ninth ward was that MANY MANY people will have considered it an unnecessary evac and that they will not go again...they will be complacent next time - you can put money on it. But that is the way the populous thinks...no getting around it.

[Vortex]

12Z guidance Nogaps, GFS, Hwrf all biting on the hard right turn well east of Florida.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS Ensemble means- if it doesn't get near/South of the Greater Antilles, I don't see how it can't turn Northwest then North

[cycloneye]

BREAKING NEWS=BEST TRACK at 18:00 UTC upgrades Ike to hurricane,65kts.

AL, 09, 2008090318, , BEST, 0, 212N, 519W, 65, 987, HU,

[rockyman]

Are there any indications that Ike could make a "hard right" to the east of Florida...then get trapped a second time?

[GeneratorPower]

I say that's an eye forming in the middle of the convection. Smack me if you wish, I'm staying with my call

And, no, I'm not going to say "eye feature" like I'm some kind of forensic hurricane expert. It's an eye.

[Ed Mahmoud]

BREAKING NEWS=BEST TRACK at 18:00 UTC upgrades Ike to hurricane,65kts.

AL, 09, 2008090318, , BEST, 0, 212N, 519W, 65, 987, HU,

I think I see an eye...

[fasterdisaster]

Title change time!

Upgrade is only 18 hours late

[mpic]

I don't want to jump the gun but a 2nd evacuation for the north central gulf coast is going to be a HUGE discussion and problem next week IF Ike comes into the gom and turns north. I'm in Mississippi and I have already heard a ton of people say they won't leave if Ike comes. I think people in LA will also be slow to leave if they leave at all becasue it took hours for people to get out and many still can't return yet. This is a valid discussion that I think will be a huge one come this weekend assuming Ike enters the gulf.

I have to agree with you on this and I don't think it is because they don't want to go but many people will not have the money to leave again. I know how much money I spent on supplies and I didn't even leave the area. I can only imagine how much those from LA and MS spent when they came over here, had to get a hotel, etc. I don't think it will be an issue on whether or not they want to but $$$. Unfortunately I think this is going to be one for Gulf of Mexico but like WKRG said it is too soon to tell this far out and we need to just watch it but not panic.

I agree with both of you. The problem becomes that if you wait for the evacuation call, it's too late to avoid traffic. I am fortunate enough to have a close place to go where I can wait to go further if necessary.

Even though there is an opinion that Hannah is moving fast enough so Ike doesn't follow, won't it still depend on a lot of other factors? High preaaure, low pressure, etc.?

[fasterdisaster]

That looks a little too far northeast to be an eye to me

[crazycajuncane]

Ike poses a huge problem to all of us in South Louisiana assuming he does head in this direction.

Many people will not want to leave because Gustav didn't do the damage expected (in some places). People are quick to compare storms even though none have ever been the same.

I'd say you'd have less people evacuating for Ike 4 days before the storm, but if Ike comes barreling in at a Cat 4 or 5 you'd have people get serious at the last minute and clog the roads.

Katrina is an example of complacency. I wouldn't dare ride out a storm in New Orleans, but some people will take the chance. I read an article where a nurse said she won't go back to New Orleans after this last evacuation, because she can't pack up every 9 months and run every time a hurricane is coming. Many people will feel the same way.

We do take hurricanes very seriously down here. It's just picking your spots. We stayed in Lafayette and everything worked out fine this time. We stayed for Lili, Andrew and Rita also. You just never know what you are going to get.

Best of luck to all who have to make that decision. Hopefully Ike isn't an issue for us in 7-10 days and we can all rest easy.

[Ed Mahmoud]

That looks a little too far northeast to be an eye to me

Not that spot of thinner clouds, the spot SW of that. The yellow spot isn't the eye, you can't quite make it out on IR yet





See?

[Air Force Met]

12Z guidance Nogaps, GFS, Hwrf all biting on the hard right turn well east of Florida.

I'm biting hard on it too. I really don't think this is a Gulf storm. I think there will be a break there and I think the NHC track will have to be adjusted to the right. Whether the break is hard enough to spare FL or the SE US...not sure yet. I just am not sold on a track that goes west for so long into the gulf.

I do think the ridge will be stronger than the GFS is hinting at. It is possible this could be a repeat for NC after Hanna (who was saying last week there season was over?)

Time will tell.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Crazycajuncane

Unofficially, I think Ike doesn't make it that far West, and Lousiana's next hurricane threat this year, if there is one, comes up from the Caribbean ala Isidore and Lili.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok, Euro says JB's Gloria track

See model thread.

Edit- JB said mix of Donna and Gloria, and Euro shows hit/near miss on MLB, near Hatteras, and into New York or New England!

[Wthrman13]

12Z guidance Nogaps, GFS, Hwrf all biting on the hard right turn well east of Florida.

I'm biting hard on it too. I really don't think this is a Gulf storm. I think there will be a break there and I think the NHC track will have to be adjusted to the right. Whether the break is hard enough to spare FL or the SE US...not sure yet. I just am not sold on a track that goes west for so long into the gulf.

I do think the ridge will be stronger than the GFS is hinting at. It is possible this could be a repeat for NC after Hanna (who was saying last week there season was over?)

Time will tell.

Agreed, and the 12Z ECMWF has trended right a bit too, and now shows a very close approach to the FL east coast, before taking Ike NE and skirting Cape Hatteras. At this point, I think a Gulf incursion is pretty unlikely, but if something like the GFDL track verifies, it just might squeak through.

[gtsmith]

12Z guidance Nogaps, GFS, Hwrf all biting on the hard right turn well east of Florida.

I'm biting hard on it too. I really don't think this is a Gulf storm. I think there will be a break there and I think the NHC track will have to be adjusted to the right. Whether the break is hard enough to spare FL or the SE US...not sure yet. I just am not sold on a track that goes west for so long into the gulf.

I do think the ridge will be stronger than the GFS is hinting at. It is possible this could be a repeat for NC after Hanna (who was saying last week there season was over?)

Time will tell.

you are a pro met and I dont doubt your skills at all...but playing devils advocate, and I realise the location and synoptics are completely different, but Dean last year traveled on a due west track all the way across the carribean...and i remember many forecasts of "in a few days he'll start to turn north", first into hispaniola, then into Cuba, the into the Yucatan channel, then into the yucatan...my point being no one expected that track to come to fruition, and anything could happen, right?

[CrazyC83]

I agree that the upgrade should have come earlier - at 0600Z is when I would have upgraded it personally. I'd say 75 kt right now.