ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Category 5]

Sorry. I grew up in suburban Long Island, and they are almost as overdue (23 years vs 25 years) for a 'Big One' as Houston. Of course, JB's 'It Could Happen Tomorrow' is a storm passing just West of PHL and pushing Delaware Bay onto Philadelphia...

Cape May county is also extremely vulnerable. We just don't know how much because, well, we haven't been hit.

[cycloneye]

I dont think this track that the 12z GFDL has will verify when it slams Hispanola and after that it bends more Westnorthwest at the end.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmm, not just a quick trough, but the Westerlies solidly in control over all of Texas. Not ready yet to officially bite on the Bastardi Gloria/Donna, but I can in my capacity as a rank amateur, unendorsed by Storm2K, unofficially declare the Ike isn't affecting the largest state of the lower 48, and the number one producer of oil.




Westerlies still large and in charge at 12Z GFS hours 240 and 360 as well, although I always take it with a grain after the hour 180 lobotomy from 35 km^2 resolution to 80 km^2 resolution.

[ROCK]

Uk Met, which I don't trust anyway, still has a Westward component at the end of that run.


I am about 90 minutes away, I think, from abandoning my foolish Lake Charles to A'p'cola scenario, and accepting JB's forecast as a track between Donna and Gloria blindly and without question.

Ed, where is your faith....you got to believe!! The last EURO shows a Donna track which is more left than the previous run.....The GFDL was pretty much spot on with Gus, I have no reason to discount that now nor do I discount the Canadian. Besides your cone was not foolish, my cone was from Tampico to Lake Charles...


guess we will have to wait until next year to revisit our wager....

[LowndesCoFire]

So is the current "hump" in the NHC forecast due to the weakness behind Hanna at first and the ridge building back in later?? Just wondering.

[gatorcane]

Wxman's track is way east of all the dynamic model guidance envelope.....

I vote for his track. Actually he's got climatology to back him also.

[ROCK]

Hmmm, not just a quick trough, but the Westerlies solidly in control over all of Texas. Not ready yet to officially bite on the Bastardi Gloria/Donna, but I can in my capacity as a rank amateur, unendorsed by Storm2K, unofficially declare the Ike isn't affecting the largest state of the lower 48, and the number one producer of oil.




Westerlies still large and in charge at 12Z GFS hours 240 and 360 as well, although I always take it with a grain after the hour 180 lobotomy from 35 km^2 resolution to 80 km^2 resolution.

240hr and 360hr GFS 500mb....I wouldnt put to much faith in that happening....thats over 10+ days away....


BTW- what is a rank ametuer?

[Ed Mahmoud]

BTW- what is a rank ametuer?

I'm a rank amateur. I can theoretically play at the Master's, but can't win the cash prize.


Oh, wait, my degree is not in meteorology.


No interest in my USA Weather thread post about met students graduating at twice the rate as entry level met jobs being created. But perhaps I should cherish my amateur status.


Edit to add-- the 12Z GFS showing Autumn beginning in Texas soon (the temps will follow) has prompted another post on my much maligned 'Texas- Season Over?' thread.

Edit to add- 65ºF morning low Monday per 12Z GFS. Not exactly a 'Blue Norther', but it isn't July anymore.

[Portastorm]

I was just going to say Ed, if you're gonna be crowing about the westerlies being "large and in charge" next week, I want to see proof with a cold frontal passage through at least half of Texas. Otherwise, I will not buy one turnip off your GFS cart!

[ROCK]

I was just going to say Ed, if you're gonna be crowing about the westerlies being "large and in charge" next week, I want to see proof with a cold frontal passage through at least half of Texas. Otherwise, I will not buy one turnip off your GFS cart!

yeah what he said....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ensemble means- if it doesn't get near/South of the Greater Antilles, I don't see how it can't turn Northwest then North




BTW, not a lot of spread indicated on the GFS ensembles at Hour 180 as far as Westerlies and Texas...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I was just going to say Ed, if you're gonna be crowing about the westerlies being "large and in charge" next week, I want to see proof with a cold frontal passage through at least half of Texas. Otherwise, I will not buy one turnip off your GFS cart!

yeah what he said....

Just North of the ridge axis is actually warmer than just South of the ridge axis, if you think about where the Easterlies are coming from.

[Frank2]

Good to read that many are now getting on the "fish bandwagon" (that sounds like a true mixed metaphor, but, it'll have to do for now)...

I never did accept those straight-line models - it just didn't look right...

Frank

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 031845
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1845 UTC WED SEP 3 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE (AL092008) 20080903 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080903 1800 080904 0600 080904 1800 080905 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 51.9W 22.8N 55.0W 24.5N 57.3W 25.4N 58.6W
BAMD 21.2N 51.9W 22.1N 55.1W 22.5N 58.0W 22.0N 60.6W
BAMM 21.2N 51.9W 22.4N 55.2W 23.6N 57.9W 23.9N 59.7W
LBAR 21.2N 51.9W 22.4N 55.1W 23.6N 58.3W 24.4N 61.3W
SHIP 65KTS 72KTS 71KTS 65KTS
DSHP 65KTS 72KTS 71KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080905 1800 080906 1800 080907 1800 080908 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.2N 60.0W 23.7N 64.8W 22.8N 70.3W 22.6N 74.2W
BAMD 20.7N 63.9W 17.6N 72.1W 15.4N 80.2W 14.0N 87.5W
BAMM 23.1N 61.6W 19.9N 66.6W 17.8N 70.6W 18.5N 71.6W
LBAR 24.5N 64.3W 22.9N 70.2W 19.9N 74.9W 23.0N 73.8W
SHIP 61KTS 60KTS 69KTS 73KTS
DSHP 61KTS 60KTS 69KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.2N LONCUR = 51.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 20.1N LONM12 = 48.8W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 19.3N LONM24 = 45.4W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 120NM

[Frank2]

Yes, apparently the models sense the trough filling with time, but, we know that this can change with later model runs...

[Ed Mahmoud]

The deep BAM track would be something we'd talk about for years, if it verified, but I have some doubts...

[Wx_Warrior]

3rd consecutive EURO that blasts EFlorida then turns up the coast.

[SWFLA_CANE]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

12 Z EURO about the same as last run. Very close to landfall in SFL then a sharp north turn up the coast.

Looks like as always timing will be everything.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro says listen to Bastardi!!!!!


Gloria track?




Edit- JB said mix of Donna and Gloria, and Euro shows hit/near miss on MLB, near Hatteras, and into New York or New England!

[Lowpressure]

Can we please focus on models not JB. He has been worse so far this year than ever. Like many say, throw it out.