ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Hanna almost looks like a tropical depression now. But I agree it's going to make a comeback and probably be a hurricane at landfall. Probably very little, if any, impact on Florida this time. Looks like a Carolinas system. And quite possibly followed by Ike right behind it 4 days later as an even stronger hurricane.

Here's a map of some of the better models, including all the consensus models. Trend definitely east toward the NC coast with few effects on the FL peninsula:

[KWT]

Very interesting observation AJC3, yeah the wind radii for TS winds does contract in.

Wxman57, yep I still would expect something around 70-75kts but its not certain this will make landfall at all now given the way the synoptic set-up has evolved.

[Evil Jeremy]

LLC and MLC have clearly decoupled. One of them is below all of the convection around 72W and 20N, and heading WNW through my untrained eyes:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[storms in NC]

Should have kept my mouth shut. There go my rain.I might get a little. I am at 34.9n 77.9w put me on the westside

[Bocadude85]

LLC and MLC have clearly decoupled. One of them is below all of the convection around 72W and 20N, and heading WNW through my untrained eyes:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

she looks to be right on track to me

[KWT]

Yep I noticed that earlier Evil Jeremy, seems like the MLC is nea the blob whilst the LLC ifs further SW, however I do note that the surace pressure near the MLC is impressivly low so that may also have a LLC with it now as well...

[gatorcane]

Looks like Hanna's low level center south of the blob is disintegrating and I bet you a new low level center is forming under the MLC (blob)

[Sanibel]

You can see the concave dry air shear intrusion into the SW quadrant NEXRAD was talking about on visible loop.

[KWT]

Yeah I'm willing to bet the same as well, new LLC probably is forming under the MLC we currently have.

[storms in NC]

I see no rotation to where they have the plot mart for the center. None.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[gatorcane]

I see no rotation to where they have the plot mart for the center. None.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

I see some rotation on the SW tip of the blob west of the second forecast point..moving NW:

Zoom in really close and then enable Tropical Forecast points.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[RevDodd]

Should have kept my mouth shut. There go my rain.I might get a little. I am at 34.9n 77.9w put me on the westside

Good gracious! As wide as Hanna is, I think it's a safe bet we ALL get some rain from her.

Of course, she'll be moving through here like a hog late for supper, so no one will get a REAL soaking....but unless she stays offshore, I think rain's a pretty safe bet.

[KWT]

Gatorcane, looks like to me the previous LLC is now getting absorbed into the circulation near the deep convection and opening up, I'm pretty confident thats where the center of Hanna is now.

[alienstorm]

Recon fixed at 21.27 minutes N 72.02 minutes west south of Turks.

[cpdaman]

Wxman 57 do you think the model shifts to the east are over

if they keep shifting like they have she could miss NC just to the east

[KWT]

Right where that circulation has been developing for the last 6hrs, that is certainly a new relocated center there, not sure what it means for the models mind you, probably not a great deal?

[cycloneye]

Finnally moving more faster:

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.

[gatorcane]

Finnally moving more faster:

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.

its about time...

BTW -- the GFS 12Z should be discarded because it had Hanna lingering near Haiti for about 24 hours before moving northward.

[KWT]

I tyhink the center relocation is probably a good thing for the systems as its now located close to some deeper convection which will probably help get this system going again.

[cpdaman]

Finnally moving more faster:

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...21.4 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.

i wonder if the center is pretty broad...

we have two stations reporting pressures of 991 and 993 respectively to the north of that fix, (at 21.9/ 72.1) and plane hasn't gone thru these areas yet


http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78114.html

will be very interested to see the plane go thru that area