ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Sanibel, that may not be a bad comprasion for track though I think the big difference will be it'll probably be curving WNW/NW by the it goes through the Bahamas.

Ivanhater, the models were in total agreement that Hanna would not go drifting southwards for 36hrs as well...
(though ironiclly one outlier run from the GFDL nailed it totally!)

ronjon, that would be the one'd I'd use, maybe taking that slight S shape a little sooner though?

[jasons2k]

Yes, it's still very early, but from what I have seen today I have to concur with the concern for the FL Keys/SE FLorida and a 1935 or Donna-like track. That seems to be the best option right now. I'm calling my Dad today on Big Pine to give him a little heads-up.

[jlauderdal]

I know that Dr. Bill Williams at the University of South Alabama is very concerned about the possibilty of Ike entering the GOM. He stated such this morning.

He was my advisor when I went to USA...good man

does he post online, link?

[KWT]

By the way looks like the system is fully wrapped round now on IR, I think the eyewall is progbably closed as well now, so don'tbe surprised if come next advisory this is something like a 70kts hurricane, thats where I'd put it now with some decently deep convection on the northern quadrant.

Coditions seem good for this to become a pretty strong hurricane in the next 48hrs IMO.

[gatorcane]

Some other analogs:

[TheShrimper]

Jasons, see if your Dad can run down to the No Name Pub to see if they will be operating should Ike come visiting.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good!

[micktooth]

Any early thoughts on a potential Northern Gulf threat? So many people are just getting back and I really don't think they would leave if Ike gets close.(Like my in-laws!)
Sorry if this is in the wrong thread.

[KWT]

Yep agreed Hurakan I'm guessing the inner core has strengthened since about 6hrs ago with the way the convection has deepened in that northern quadrant. i really think this has to be a hurricane now.

[Sabanic]

I know that Dr. Bill Williams at the University of South Alabama is very concerned about the possibilty of Ike entering the GOM. He stated such this morning.

He was my advisor when I went to USA...good man

does he post online, link?

Unfortunately not that I'm aware of

[Ivanhater]

does he post online, link?

Unfortunately not that I'm aware of

No, it is only released to his clients, and the meteorology class gets a peek of it, I did during Katrina

[gatorcane]

Large Hanna and Ike...

about the difference between the size of Jupiter and the Earth:

[Brent]

Large Hanna and Ike...

about the difference between the size of Jupiter and the Earth:

Ike's track...

[jlauderdal]

Large Hanna and Ike...

about the difference between the size of Jupiter and the Earth:

ike has the power though now and down the road, size doesnt matter

[gatorcane]

unbelievable...Hanna appears to be clearing out for Ike just in time....Ike is not too far away from getting whacked by Hanna's outflow

Hanna is definitely on the move now.

[Scorpion]

Ike looks like a monster in the making. Nice, compact bowling ball.

[KWT]

Its close Gatorcane, still may get it if Hanna doesn't move out quickly enough, Hanna's outflow expands to about 60W but its looking likely that Hanna will be moving out by that time.

Ike really wrapping up very nivcely indeed now, surely a hurricane!

[curtadams]

The NHC track is certainly plausible but the good globals are much more bearish. The UKM dissipates Ike and the GFS has it as a weak TS out to 6 days. I assume they expect Hanna to damage Ike. Only NOGAPS has something like the NHC prediction. Odd to see NOGAPS being the bull although it's been happening a lot lately.

[Scorpion]

GFS also never initialized Gustav until it was a hurricane.

[Vortex]

GFS 12z comes hard with the sw motion at days 3-4..Also leaves a weakness along the east coast which would tend to turn it to the north before a US threat..